Three Technologies That Are Yet to Make It
Antoine Walter
?? Business Developer ??? Host of the "(don't) Waste Water" podcast ?? Rock Star (well... Pianist.)
$12.2 Million is a lot of money. Unless it isn't.
This week, 374Water announced a registered direct offering that would get them that exact amount. But with their stock down roughly 60% since their NASDAQ listing (where they debuted at about $2.6), you might think it's not the best of news.
Or is it?
374Water is one of the rare water tech companies that managed to take Supercritical Water Oxidation (SCWO) from the lab to... well, somewhere closer to reality.
And they're not alone in that limbo between "massive potential" and "mainstream adoption."
That made me want to look with harsh kindness at three technologies that have been "the next big thing" for quite some time:
Supercritical Water Oxidation
Let's start with our opener, of course - after all it's around for 40 years.
Somewhat, SCWO is like water's superhero form - when you heat and pressurize it beyond its critical point, it gains incredible powers to destroy pretty much anything organic.
PCBs? Gone. PFAS? Destroyed. The most stubborn pollutants? No match.
Yet, despite:
... we're still waiting for that breakthrough moment.
Why? Because heating water to 400-650°C under massive pressure isn't exactly a walk in the park. Salt deposits and corrosion are like kryptonite to our superhero. ??
Hey, have you registered your thougts for my Unsponsored Water Awards?
Forward Osmosis
Remember Oasys Water? $70 Million in funding, world's largest coal-to-olefin project... and then, poof! They ran out of runway trying to find their market.
The pattern tells us something: Forward Osmosis is probably an amazing technology looking for its perfect use case.
But since Jean Antoine Nollet's first experiments during the XVIIIth century, somebody is still to make it "big"
Now, that's not to say that some clever players are not actively working on finding the martingale:
UV LED
That one is around since 25 years, and granted the Minamata Convention banned mercury in 2013, one would think it should have killed mercury lamps by now.
It's smaller, instant on/off, and doesn't contain, well, that said mercury. Perfect, right?
Tell that to Typhon Treatment Systems. They built the world's first municipal-scale UV LED system, treating 30,000 m3/day. Technical success? Absolutely. Commercial success? They went into liquidation in 2023.
(Though like a LED-powered phoenix, NUUV rose from their ashes)
What Can We Learn?
These three technologies tell us something about water tech adoption that goes beyond Paul O'Callaghan 's famous 35-year rule:
The "Superior Technology" Trap
Just because something is technically superior (SCWO destroys PFAS better, UV LED is mercury-free, FO uses less energy) doesn't mean it will win.
The water industry doesn't need perfect solutions - it needs solutions that work well enough and are simple enough to operate.
The Market Creation Challenge
Sometimes, the hardest part isn't developing the technology but finding its sweet spot.
Forward Water's success in lithium recovery shows that your technology's best market might not be the one you originally designed it for.
(PS: if you want more proof of that, go watch the results of 2016's Masdar project!)
The Scale-Up Dilemma
All three technologies work beautifully at small scale. But scaling up means facing new challenges:
So what's next? Despite these challenges, I'm optimistic. Why? Because:
The question isn't if these technologies will make it, but when and in what form.
And maybe that's the real lesson here: success in water tech isn't about being the best technology, but about finding the right application at the right time.
PS: One more thought here
374Water is not the only company that sought fresh cash this week, as LiqTech also did. It made me consider adding ceramic membranes to my list. Would I have been fully out of touch if I had?
?? This week on the Podcast: GWT
Yes, you'll have a déjà vu here.
But I believe that in my enthusiasm for my coverage of WEFTEC, I did not do enough of a good job to push this conversation with Martin Gross ( Gross-Wen Technologies ) - it did OK by the numbers, but not as good as it deserves
(not because of me, entirely because of him!)
So I've updated the packaging, I got my ducks in a row with his cartoon stunt double, and I firmly believe that you should listen to this one - if you haven't already.
?? Snacking Content
?? I've read many analysis of Trump's impact on "Water". My favorite remains Saurabh Singh 's (which you can find here)
Saurabh is one of the "golden profiles" on LinkedIn where you know that whenever he'll post something, it will be a banger. Let me name a second one for the sake of parity: Ali Ling .
Follow them if you haven't. ??
?? Last week, as I followed Benjamin Sparrow through Saltworks Technologies: Industrial Water + Lithium ' bustling Richmond facility, something clicked. The way he switched from energizing a room of engineers to delivering an impromptu technical talk on container assembly wasn't just impressive - it perfectly illustrated what research tells us about early-stage water tech CEOs.
A scale-ups success directly correlates with its CEO's hands-on involvement in:
I actually also looked into this topic, having watched this video:
Further looking into the research, it seams like the CEO's secret sauce involves:
It also made me note that interviewed 113 CEOs on the podcast. Many profiles, for sure, but also quite some common threads!
?? Veralto announced a $15 million investment for a minority stake in Axine Water Technologies , which specializes in electrochemical oxidation technology for destroying organic contaminants, including PFAS, in pharmaceuticals and industrial wastewater.
The strategic collaboration includes a commercial agreement with Veralto's Trojan Technologies business in North America, aiming to expand Axine's presence in municipal and industrial markets while scaling their technology.
Am I the only one for whom, Trojan + Axine interestingly resembles Xylem (or De Nora) + Aclarity?
I'll follow that one closely ??
?? I was honored to speak to Travis Loop at the brilliant Rethinking Water Conference organized by Sciens Water . He's been faster than me to edit the video, so I'm out while he's still in my fridge (what a teaser, right? ??)
That's it for this week I fear - if any of this is of interest to you, make sure to subscribe! Remember to share your thoughts, and I'll see you next week to discuss Carbon Capture!
Co-Founder and CEO at MentorAPM, CEO of Uberlytics, LLC
3 个月?? This: "The water industry doesn't need perfect solutions - it needs solutions that work well enough and are simple enough to operate."
I connect people across groups and organizations to raise the profile of California's water professionals so we can all meet our mission: clean, healthy water for all communities.????
4 个月The emerging tech I keep checking on is the Gates Reinvented Toilet. Just waiting for the day all of us in wastewater become redundant. There was a new burst of energy from a Georgia Tech lab a couple years ago that was implementing their new toilet tech, now global testing is occurring, and some very large corporate partners are getting involved. But no major announcements recently. The one tech to rule them all, maybe ??
McKinsey | Tuck MBA
4 个月(post 1/3) Antoine Walter - awesome post. I was actually just working on something substantially similar to this yesterday, so I was happy to stumble across your article! One question I've been asking myself is "what's the last 'revolutionary' water technology that was a commercial success"? And by revolutionary I mean real, substantial change - not having 30, 40, 50 installations. Truthfully - I can't think of many. You mention UV LED and Typhon. As you note, it's been a couple decades and hasn't moved much (and I saw that myself when I was at Aqua, which was owned by Metawater who has a LEDUV system) For years people were proclaiming annamox to become the new standard. I remember being a young engineer and reading about World Water Works DEMON system and thinking that it sounded great. I've been to hundreds of treatment plants and have seen exactly one side-stream annamox treatment system. The first Nereda plant was commissioned in 2005. It's 20 years later and there's now... 60? 80? 100? And don't get me started on AOPs The question people ask is "how long does it take for an innovative technology to reach commercial success"? You mention the 35 year rule, but is it possible the answer isn't 35 years, but rather, "no"?
Environmental engineering educator and problem solver
4 个月Great update. Glad you find my LI feed useful, Antoine Walter! It’s definitely mutual
Chief Technology Officer | Open Innovation | Design Thinking | Entrepreneur
4 个月Insightful post ! Thanks !