Three Takeaways from Davos

This photo was taken by one of our team on Monday in Davos. It depicts a return to the normal snowy location that everyone associates with the WEF’s Annual Meeting, as opposed to the vastly different backdrop we had in May. ‘Normal’, as I mentioned in my pre-meeting video, isn’t a word we are usually using for the state of the world, nor the conversations in Davos. I’ve been lacking in my updates this week due to a packed schedule but wanted to share some views.

Polarised viewpoints

I've always felt that the Davos audience leans optimistic but I agree with Anders Nemeth that I don't think I've ever seen such a wide range of perceived potential economic paths. The optimists are still here, but also here this week have been the deep pessimists. There is a real need to prepare for uncertainty, to plan for resilience in a very detailed way (including through supply chains – a big Oliver Wyman and Marsh McLennan theme) and also to keep powder dry at the moment. The policy response will err to the tougher end of the spectrum and I am not convinced that is priced into expectations

A hand on the wheel

Someone said to me this week, in an analogy that I really liked, that politically and economically it feels as though we need someone to grab the steering wheel of the bus. But my observation would be on climate, it really feels like that steering wheel has been firmly grabbed. The policy response in the Inflation Reduction Act, and in the EU response (leaving the UK with some interesting questions) is creating policy certainty that is accelerating investment. GreenTech is moving fast. When I caught up with Huw van Steenis in our social media discussion, he remarked how struck he was by how many investors and policymakers are supporting firms driving tangible and immediate actions to accelerate decarbonization.

A Generation of changers

In Davos, the Oliver Wyman Forum launched our new research into Gen Z and 美世 leads a lot of transformation projects redefining the future world of work.

Gen Z represent 25% of the population and will comprise 27% of the workforce by 2025. Despite the many stereotypes, they are changing the consumer world and the workplace, including views that are attractive to their elders. We cannot afford to ignore them. The report, a two-year study, lays out some key trends on this generation that are going about things differently and not afraid to be vocal or take action. They are constantly re-evaluating their brands and their jobs, many have side hustles and they are 75% more likely to move to jobs that better align with their values.

However handling a values-led conversation isn’t easy and we have seen what happens when companies overshoot. Given the diversity of views in our workforces, and social media’s propensity to act precipitously, employers and leaders of businesses need to plan their approaches here carefully, based on a range of scenarios.

My second observation is around the continued debate about return to the office. I find it sterile and disempowering. All our expectations regarding our lives and our careers have shifted, and have been shifting for a long time. Being together has huge value, but only when it has a purpose. Those who think we'll just go back to the old ways (and that recession will overcome employee resistance), I believe have it wrong. We need to empower, not monitor, our teams, and I think there is an exciting future for organisations that balance employer and employee needs in designing workplaces of the future. AI too is really starting to find applications in this area and is a critical consideration for most firms (although I promise this was not written by ChatGPT!)

My final remark is that I'm optimistic coming out of the week. While Davos gets a lot of stick, some of it justified, I think it's always good to engage. The world is fragmented and WEF’s mission, bringing leaders together across the public, private and third sectors, is highly valuable. I attend because meeting with clients, seeing market developments, working together to solve problems, and opening my mind up to the huge array of changes in the world can only be a good thing.