AI/AGI scenarios for the future of humanity
‘The future is predictable, for it can be shaped.’
Everything Exists at Once, Past, Present, Future, and the Future is Coming at Each Moment, unfolding before us, shaped by Action or by Chance, bringing great events or terrible happenings our way.
AI/AGI/ASI Takeover
The future is here, and how we are used to separate time — past, present, and future — is nothing more than an illusion created by our hallucinating minds.
Much of human thought and behavior is directed towards potential future events.
Of all possible futures, we have probable or preferable futures, the most-expected or least-expected future.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism, strategic foresight, futuristics, future thinking, or futurology is trying to study possible, probable and preferable futures including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future, aggregating and analyzing past and present trends and patterns to compose or extrapolate possible futures.
It is analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of social, technological or environmental change and stability to develop foresight, predicting the future, forecasting scenarios.
Futures Studies involve academics, consultants, scientists and artists, drawing on philosophy, history, earth system sciences, politics and sociology.
Since stone tools times, technological innovations have been always the leading factors shaping the future of humanity.
With the development and adoption of emerging technologies becoming major trends and megatrends, we come closer to shaping the alternative possible future, rather than predicting it.
All future social change, from the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form or the destruction of all life on Earth, could be decided by quantum-, nano-, bio-, or cognitive technology weapons or hostile artificial intelligence.
With recent digital technology advancements, an?AI takeover?is no more a sci-fi future scenario, but an emerging reality. Today human-mimicking AI emerges as "the dominant form of?intelligence?on Earth and?computer programs?or?robots?effectively take control of the planet away from the?human species".
Highly possible scenarios include?replacement of the entire human workforce?due to?automation, takeover by a?human-like superintelligent AI?(HASI).
Many people, including AI researchers and futurists, are unaware that an anthropomorphic AI (AAI), replicating, copying, or simulating human intelligence (or the human body, brain, brains, behavior, business), is the greatest threat to mankind and challenge of human existence.
This is clear even for its major stakeholders and beneficiaries:
“AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity, as shown by extensive research and acknowledged by top AI labs”.
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
AAI/AGI consequences could be much worse than human cloning, which is prohibited in most countries, and massive technological unemployment without any compensation effects is just the beginning of the end.
AAI/AGI may best be seen as a continuation and reinforcement of bureaucratic forms of discrimination and violence, amplifying existing inequalities and injustices as well as deepening social divisions and instabilities, ultimately fostering authoritarian outcomes.
Corporate AGI technology is antithetical to an egalitarian and just society.
It depends on us, which future AI world scenario will domineer, techno-utopia or techno-dystopia:
AAI/AGI Techno-Capitalism of AGI oligopolies and big tech political power and supehuman human-competing humanoid robots,
AAI/AGI Techno-Fascism of totalitarian and authoritarian one-party states with militarized HAGI economy
Real AI/AGI Techno-Socialism with universal minimum income, where laws, government, social institutions and conditions are solely operating for the benefit and well-being of all?its citizens by superintelligent, human-completing machines...
AAI/AGI technology could serve any political regime, without any moral or ethical restrictions.
AI: the State of Affairs
Artificial Intelligence (AI) implies a total paradigm shift, "a fundamental change in approach or underlying assumptions or practice", philosophical, ontological, epistemological, social, political, economic, personal, cultural, environmental, scientific and technological.
The most concern of humanity must be forecasting its paradigmatic impact on human society, its social, economic and political systems, structures and institutions.
Presently, the world experiences an accelerated growth and expansion of Big Tech’s AI of Machine Learning, ANNs, Deep Learning, Generative AI, as human-mimicking AI/AGI.
It is fast emerging as narrow-minded automated “superintelligences” outperforming humans in any narrow cognitive tasks, and implemented as in:
Generative AI
Large Language Models
GenAI chatbots
LAWs or military AI,
ML/DL drones, killer robots, AI-guided swarm drone technology,
humanoid robots,
self-driving transportation,
smart manufacturing machines,
RPAs,
cyborgs,
trading algorithms,
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smart government decision makers,
recommendation engines,
medical AI system., all what is so scaring Musk.
Artificial General Intelligence as a Human-Like and Human-Level AI
Artificial Superhuman Intelligence, as Human-Like, Superhuman AI
The whole idea of Anthropomorphic and Anthropocentric AI (AAAI) as the narrow AI/ML/DL/LLMs or general AI/AGI/ASI, aimed at simulating human intelligence, cognitive skills, capacities, capabilities and functions, as well as intelligent behavior and actions in computing machines is raising a number of undecidable social, moral, ethical and legal dilemmas.
The narrow and weak Deep-Learning AI programs classify tremendous amounts of data without any understanding of the world and meaning of their inputs or outputs (e.g., the recommendation to treat or a risk score or behavioral changes).
All LLMs products and services might have virtually unlimited rote learning capacities, but ZERO knowledge and its insights and understanding, which is a must for real reasoning and deep inferences and decision-making and solving real-world problems.
AGI' Scenario Planning: Techno- Capitalism, - Socialism, or - Fascism
AI as replicating, copying or simulating human intelligence (human body, brain, brains, behavior, business) is the greatest threat to mankind and challenge of human existence.
This is clear event for its major stakeholders and beneficiaries:
“AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity, as shown by extensive research and acknowledged by top AI labs”.
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war,”
AI/AGI consequences could be much worse than human cloning, which is prohibited in most countries, and massive technological unemployment without any compensation effects is just the beginning of the end.
AI/AGI may best be seen as a continuation and reinforcement of bureaucratic forms of discrimination and violence, amplifying existing inequalities and injustices as well as deepening social divisions and instabilities, ultimately fostering authoritarian outcomes.
Corporate AGI technology is antithetical to an egalitarian and just society.
It depends on us, which future AI world scenario will domineer, techno-utopia or techno-dystopia:
AAI/AGI Techno-Capitalism of AGI oligopolies and big tech political power and supehuman human-competing humanoid robots,
AAI/AGI Techno-Fascism of totalitarian and authoritarian one-party states with militarized HAGI economy
Real AI/AGI Techno-Socialism with universal minimum income, where laws, government, social institutions and conditions are solely operating for the benefit and well-being of all?its citizens by superintelligent, human-completing machines...
As indicated, Human-Mimicking AI/AGI could serve any political regime, having no moral or ethical restrictions.
The Last Warning from Intelligent Minds
This is why good minds forewarned humanity about the the possibilities and possible perils of AAAI, mimicking human learning and reasoning by machines and humanoid robots:
“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race… It (https://race….It) would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded.”
— Stephen Hawking told the BBC
“I visualise a time when we will be to robots what dogs are to humans, and I’m rooting for the machines.”
—Claude Shannon
“I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish. I mean with artificial intelligence we’re summoning the demon.”
—Elon Musk warned at MIT’s AeroAstro Centennial Symposium
All what we need, its is a radically new kind of AI, Real and True MI, or Real World AI, which is to simulate and understand or compute reality, causality and mentality in digital reality machines.,
This is becoming clear for some smart industrialists, as E. Musk, who understands that without the Real World AI no really intelligent machine is possible.
“Self-driving requires solving a major part of real-world AI, so it’s an insanely hard problem, but Tesla is getting it done.” “Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality.”
Resources
Resisting AI: An Anti-fascist Approach to Artificial Intelligence
Following are three technological scenarios spanning a wide range of possible outcomes that economic policymakers should pay attention to:
Scenario I (traditional, business as usual): Advances in AI boost productivity and automate a range of cognitive work tasks, but they also create new opportunities for affected workers to move into new jobs that are, on average, more productive than those from which they were displaced. This view is encapsulated by panel 1 of Chart 1.
Scenario II (baseline, AGI in 20 years): Over the next 20 years, AI gradually advances to the point of AGI, resulting in its ability to perform all human work tasks by the end of the period, devaluing labor (Susskind, forthcoming). This would correspond to the perspective of finite brainpower captured by panel 2 of Chart 1, together with the assumption that it would take 20 years for the most complex cognitive tasks to be accessible to AI.
Scenario III (aggressive, AGI in five years): This scenario replicates Scenario II but on a more aggressive timeline, such that AGI with all the associated consequences for labor would be reached within five years.
Everything we can imagine is real
7 个月I would choose scenario I: business and labor give us a sense of duty which can be related to happiness, scenario II and III I see it as dangerous AGI that will bring us to an unhealthy laziness.