Three questions you should ask before going to college

About 15 years ago I took a taxi home after working late in London. While in the taxi, I spoke on the phone to a colleague in the US. The taxi driver was obviously eavesdropping on my conversation. I know this because, as soon as I hung up, he asked me: "What do I need to do to get a job like yours?"

I was put on the spot. I asked the driver if he had any education or credentials and he told me he had left school at 16. So, naturally, I advised him to work towards a University degree.

If I was put on the same spot today, there is no way I would give the same answer. It's just not that simple any more. A University/College degree is no longer the unique value-added route to a good job and a better life, and - as we will see later in this article - it can often end up with a negative return on investment, causing a lifetime of financial baggage for many of our young people,.

I believe we are moving towards a crisis in the education sector. Technological, economic and social forces are redefining how young people move from their adolescent years into their future careers. Colleges, Universities and other physical centers of tertiary education will emerge from this period of change with massively reduced roles.

So if you or one of your family or friends are thinking about going to college, here are three questions you should really think hard about.

1. Do I have a career I am passionate about pursuing?

Too many 18-20 year olds are today embarking on degree programs because the structure of the education system and societal expectations pressure them into a decision. They are made to feel that they have to do something. In the absence of any further information with which to make that decision, many decide to just do what they were good at in school.

That is no reason to invest in a multi-year commitment. Before making any decisions on college, you need to have possible future careers in mind that you are genuinely passionate or excited about. No matter what others say, it makes no sense at all to embark on a multi year course of study if it doesn't enable something that you are excited about.

And don't be fooled by the idea of a certain career - do your homework! Understand what your day to day work would be in that career, what your long term prospects are. Try to predict what your life will be like in 10, 20, 30 years if you embark on that career. Talk to people who are in that career and get all the details you can. With connection platforms like LinkedIn, you now have all the opportunities you need to make the right connections and get the essential information.

If you are not yet clear on what kind of a future you want - just wait until you are! Don't be tempted by increasingly aggressive institutions trying to sell you on courses with sweeteners like unconditional offers. Take the time out to travel or work on something in the short term, and use the time to think about what excites you and what you would really like to do.

2. Is a degree the best option to help me achieve this career?

Depending on the career you want to pursue, the learning and preparation options are increasing year by year. There are now many, many career disciplines where it is questionable whether someone needs to attend a bricks and mortar educational establishment over multiple years to prepare for them.

Online learning has exploded, and is particularly suited to practical technical education like data science and programming. This presents a low cost, convenient option to learn at one's own pace, potentially in combination with working and earning an income. These options are now increasingly recognized as modular qualifications and are often designed and delivered by thought leaders who might not be actively teaching in accessible Universities or Colleges. Online community learning is also starting to offer an alternative to the group learning that colleges tout as being an important part of a degree education.

Apprenticeships are coming back with a vengeance, with many employers now trying to grab talent before they make their college decisions. Apple, for example is among a recent top ten list of companies who hire high school graduates in the US. Companies like Deloitte in the UK are already making noise about their intentions to hire trainees straight out of school. PWC are doing the same in Australia. In the UK, the infrastructure around apprenticeships is improving rapidly, with the government's introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy and the growth of dedicated Apprenticeship service providers like Whitehat. Apprenticeships offer people the opportunity to learn while they work, which is more economically attractive. They also put an onus on employers to help teach important life and work skills to young people, at a time when University and College graduates are considered more and more lacking in such skills.

Entrepreneurship is the other increasing alternative for young people, particularly those who are impatient to make an impact on the world in their own unique way. It often becomes harder to take risks later in life due to the complex network of financial and personal dependencies that people build over time. It is when we are young that we are often in the best position to take risks, as we have little to lose. You don't have to look far for examples of successful college dropouts who really didn't feel they had time to waste on a college education. Steve Jobs dropped out after 6 months. Richard Branson never even finished High School. Even Peter Thiel, who did manage to finish his degree, penned a New York Times piece where he questioned the value of a college degree to those keen to be entrepreneurs, claiming that it could waste years of their time.

3. Is a degree worth the investment?

And here we come to the most critical point. We invest in things because we believe that they will provide value to us. In the case of degrees, we embark on them because we believe they will better our opportunities and make us economically better off in the long run.

There is increasing evidence that certain degrees offered by certain institutions are just not valuable any more. A recent report by Onward in the UK estimates that somewhere between 18% and 25% of undergraduate students are taking degrees that will never pay back their investment, leaving them worse off for the rest of their lives compared to if they had never embarked on them.

This has clearly come about because of multiple forces. The cost of an undergraduate education at a bricks and mortar institution has ballooned in recent decades, with many leaving these programs in debt to the tune of several years worth of salary. Meanwhile, the massive growth in those obtaining degrees has meant that the value of a degree to an employer has substantially declined as an indicator of quality, and so commands less of a pay premium. These problems, combined with rapidly growing costs of living, mean that many graduates are now finding themselves with nothing to show for their time and hard work except a lot of debt and questions about whether it was ever worth it in the first place.

Clearly, the value of a college education depends heavily on what someone wants to do and where they want to do it. Lawyers and Doctors for example will always need a high intensity academic and practical training that only a degree at a good institution can provide. But the Onward report shows that there are many disciplines - the creative arts, agriculture, communication and languages to name a few - where the value of a degree is genuinely questionable. This needs to be brought more into the conversations that schools and parents have with their young people.

The technological revolution is changing the world around us at a pace unprecedented in history. Just as it has transformed the world of work, it will also transform education. I believe that young people embarking on their careers will and should ask themselves the questions above and they will ask them in greater numbers each year. The end result will be a major restructure of educational institutions and programs, and a much reduced role for traditional bricks and mortar Universities and Colleges. It's just a matter of time.

I lead McKinsey's internal People Analytics and Measurement function. Originally I was a Pure Mathematician, then I became a Psychometrician. I am passionate about applying the rigor of both those disciplines to complex people questions. I'm also a coding geek and a massive fan of Japanese RPGs.

All opinions expressed are my own and not to be associated with my employer or any other organization I am associated with.