Three questions after the elections in France and the UK

The summer is here (kind of). The German parliament is taking a well-deserved (?) break. The European championship is sadly almost over (better luck in two years!). But thankfully we have the Olympics to look forward to. Something else to be thankful for: The cycle of planned or impromptu elections is over for now and we can safely say – it could have been worse. With the expertise from our offices in London and Paris we are trying to answer some of the questions you might have after the tumultuous last few weeks.?

1. May we hope for a new chapter in the long and not always easy British-European relationship??

The new Labour government under Prime Minister, Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer, will be much more willing to renew a closer cooperation between the UK and the EU. During the election campaign and before, they have been open about their desire for integration in certain areas – such as the chemical and agricultural sector. However, they will have to wait and see how the EU will react to what might be seen in Brussels as cherry picking. Most unlikely is a reopening of the Brexit agreement or a general Brexit debate. Neither side will want to get back into that so soon after they have finally agreed on a treaty. In what way Germany and Europe can count on Britain as a partner and ally outside of trade and industry remains to be seen. Sir Keir will probably have to start by sorting out some issues a home (a government with little governing experience, many first-term MPs, not much budget to go on, and numerous divisive topics such as immigration).?

2. How much can we rely on France and Emmanuelle Macron from now on??

We probably won’t know for some time to come. With the results as they are, Emmanuelle Macron has a few options – none of them great. He could decide and try to govern with his existing government. But without a majority in parliament he won’t be able to implement new EU laws and directives. He might appoint Jean-Luc Melonchon, the leader of the united left Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), as the new Prime Minister. However, the NFP also does not have a majority. Either way, they will have to live with the results for at least another year when new elections can be called at the earliest. But compromise and coalitions have never been a corner stone of the French political system. For now, France is stuck and weakened.?

Still, in foreign policy and on the international stage does Macron continue to call the shots and act unchallenged. Many other EU leaders expects France to continue to their support of the Ukrainian war efforts alongside Germany and the other member states.?

3. Are we allowed to be relieved??

There was a collective sigh of relief in Germany and all over Europe after the French election results came in on Sunday. After right-wing parties had already performed worse than expected in the EU elections, France now appears to be the second narrow escape in quick succession. However, we have to take a closer look at these elections and what they do to us. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National actually received the most votes and only came in third because of France’s Winner-Take-All system. Now the national assembly is stuck with three equally strong party blocks which are all unwilling and unlikely to cooperate on most topics.??

And as a voter, it also simply gets exhausting to view every election as a last stand against extremist powers. The ruling parties in France and in Germany should take a hard look on why the “protest vote” is becoming more of a rule than an exception. As should the Conservative Party in the UK. Voting Labour is of course not comparable to voting for the Alternative für Deutschland or the Rassemblement National, but the astounding land slide win for them was as much a vote against the Tories and the chaos of the past years as it was a vote for the change promised by Starmer and his colleagues.?