Three More Lost Years in solving our housing crisis

In light of the Business Post front page article https://www.businesspost.ie/news/exclusive-government-finally-admits-housing-targets-significantly-below-demand/

I have prepared a short blog (ref below) to explain how this mistake has already cost millions if not billions of euros to Irish home buyers and the government.

It is of course welcome if the government now acknowledges their mistake in 2021 and I suppose better late than never to change course. But it has come at huge cost.

We now need to see some real scrutiny from the Oireachtas Committee on Housing to understand how and why these targets were so under-baked. It has lost us very valuable time in so many areas as the ramp up needed was completely under scaled and the closing of the gap delayed for at least another three lost years.

It has forced buyers including the government wasting taxpayer money to overpay especially in the secondary market, leaving sellers with windfall profits to be paid for by excessive mortgages for new homeowners for decades. Higher secondary market prices have also likely driven up new home prices requiring more than appropriate government first time buyer supports.

In short, wasted government money and yet another intergenerational transfer of wealth to disadvantage younger generations which need not have happened. And now we have yet another three years to catch up on.

Governments in the early 2000's claimed they were not warned about the upcoming crisis (or perhaps they were just not open to listening). But this time, clear and credible voices raised concerns from the get go. I know I did. My own concerns were raised privately first and then in public (check out the audio link below) when the Housing for All strategy still got it wrong in my opinion. Others joined me in raising concerns. I still hoped a reversal might occur. But it did not.

At the time, I called on the Minister and Department to give us the evidence publicly why they did not believe those of us calling for 45-50,000 homes were wrong. Nothing was provided as I explain in the interview linked below. It is critical that the Committee should now ask for it. If mistakes were make, lessons must be learned.

And bad and all as that is in central government, it seems we see local authorities who should be close to the problems on the ground not question the target either. Surely, they could see how serious the problem was in their own areas or were they too tied to party politics or not experienced enough to feel they could question the Department which gave them their funding.

It is not as if the people raising questions like myself about the targets did not give them ammunition.

Again, I would suggest the Oireachtas Committee explain why this was not so either.

But then, perhaps I am expecting too much. Many of these local authorities are still not even delivering to their local demand either.

This is the bleak picture in my own area of Limerick.

The above graph comes from a briefing I know has been given to our local councillors, including many of my actual or reputed opponents in the upcoming mayoral election. It is time for them to explain to us all if they believe they can now be our mayor why the closing of that gap which has been brought clearly to their attention is so woefully slow under their prior watch. It is a clear example of what I mean when I say we need #MoreforLimerick.

For those reading who do not know, Limerick is already perhaps uniquely equipped to have done the best in Ireland for two reasons:-

1. I myself when at the Department of Finance back in 2013/2014 supported the creation of its own development company for Limerick (Limerick 2030) back in 2013/2014 and opened the door to them by approving 75 million of cheap funding from the EIB where I was a director. This development company, unique among local authorities, has the power to deliver housing specifically for the local authority (and has been working on such plans in Mungret for almost ten years). The board is set up to fully understand the needs of the local authority and the urgency required. They directors include three councillors and other senior officials from the local authority - some who might even be candidates in June.
2. Secondly, even before I left the Chair of the Land Development Agency in 2021, it had already committed to developing housing in Limerick and had already advanced a strategic framework for 60 hectares mixed use development at Colbert Quarter with well over 5,000 homes to be delivered.

Voters now need to be asking other candidates what they will credibly be able to do about this all to see a different and better outcome. Specifically, they should ask any other TD or councillor candidate why despite them being in positions of authority, this is not well progressed since that graph began.

I certainly will be asking.

If ever we needed proof that something really needs to change in the way we approach solving our problems here in Limerick this is it. Despite all of these clear advantages, Limerick still is more than 2,000 units short every year.

It is not just a set of numbers on a graph. That causes real pain and costs untold extra costs.

We need #MoreforLimerick

For further information:

For anyone looking to understand the right targets in 2021 might have given a different outcome, check out: https://www.johnmoran.ie/three_lost_years

And for even more information, check out my 2021 interview:-

https://www.newstalk.com/news/under-supply-in-housing-for-all-plan-means-prices-will-not-come-down-1247756?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=web via @NewstalkFM