Three landmarks on the road to recovery - a blend of hope and expectation
At some point the United States goes back to work, back to school and back to the ballgame. The pre-conditions are far from clear but must include two broadly held beliefs. First, the belief that the possibility of infection is low and second that treatment for those infected is accessible, affordable and effective.
If the ‘curve flattens' at the current rate, if testing availability becomes ubiquitous as seems likely and the supply of lifesaving machinery, health professionals and beds exceeds demand then the wheels begin to turn.
It’s not likely that there will be a ‘moment’ when it’s all OK. More likely a phased return will take place in those parts of the country furthest progressed. One scenario may be the following:
Memorial Day (last Monday on May
- 50% of U.S. population returns to work.
- All tested
- Priority given to those who can do least from home and those without care obligations.
- Businesses open for as many hours as they can while accommodating social distancing.
- Restaurants open at 50% capacity.
- Extreme hygiene rules such as gloves and masks on public transit and temperature testing at office and store entrances
Labor Day (first Monday of September)
- Full return to work
- Schools back
- Extreme hygiene maintained in all business and educational establishments.
- 500 capacity venues re-open.
Halloween
- Sports and mass entertainment ventures open.
- Personal hygiene rules still apply.
If this scenario, or one like it plays out, much in America will change:
- Only a rule-respecting culture will prevent new outbreaks, each one deepening the economic scars.
- Only a new level of tolerance and inclusion will accommodate flexible working without active or passive bias.
- Only a moderation of the profit motive will allow for a significant level of re-employment and avert a long term depression.
Every business needs a plan:
- How do you organize operations and labor for a phased return and some permanent change?
- How do you proactively protect and enable those that return and maintain equal engagement with those that work remotely?
- How do you think about your businesses role in the wider world; do you embrace job sharing to reduce unemployment? Do you re-calibrate your supply chain relationships to reduce stress in the system?
- How do you manage shareholder expectations and return to innovation driven returns enabled by reinvestment rather than stock buy-backs?
@robnorman