Three Days Out of Lock Down. Thoughts on Connecticut's Soft Opening.

Connecticut started it's "soft opening" on Wednesday. We at The Geenty Group, Commercial Realtors have been operating as an Essential Service throughout Lock Down-remotely and in person, with PPE. The Commercial Real Estate Market in and around New Haven is still busy. There isn't a lot of available inventory to lease and asking prices for the purchase of antique homes converted to offices or retail or small mixed use properties are still a bit "Optimistic." Investment properties that return profit sell before an open market sales push begins. Industrial buildings under 20,000sf are going under contract within 10 days and in New Haven, Apartment buildings sell in days and Leasing even faster.

#CT with the exception of Fairfield County doesn't always follow the national trends that everyone reads about in #CRE trade outlets, podcasts and social media. We climb out of recessions more slowly and haven't boomed as high as the rest of the country since the 90's. It is a state of small businesses which has a very different demand curve than large cities or southern states with tax incentives. But, commercial real estate is holding steady. Close to 80% of rents are being paid. Small businesses who own and occupy there buildings have seen some relief, whether mortgage payment deferments, PPP loans, an 8 hour long CT Bridge Loan or some combination of the foregoing, distribution, assembly and light manufacturing businesses are working through. Construction projects continue and the Healthcare industry keeps employment on track.

So, the smaller market perspective is a question mark. Will our suburban "Flex" (office or light industrial, R & D, biotech buildings) see an influx of tech companies fleeing cities? Maybe. But, when companies leave expensive city centers to create space and increase air flow, #CT is NOT the bargain that springs to mind.

However! Within our market, people are moving. We've had calls from a few Fine Dining restaurants seeking sites for straight take out: no seats, no bathrooms, just food and boxes serving up small menus Mental Health practitioners are making calls to downsize due to tele-medicine success. So many of this started happening after a month in lock down. So, there's movement. People still have faith. And there will be business here.

Today, the trajectory that reveals itself is small. Small spaces. Smaller offices with more walls and doors. Permanently reduced days or hours in offices spaces for each person. Local retail is deep in the weeds and those fun boutiques on the "Town Green" (square, common,) will likely last, only if their Landlords will work with them - and Local Landlords would be foolish not to work with local retailers in the coming months. Walkability and small town charm are created by sassy high end boutiques, quirky eateries and services that one can only find in a small town center. I'm not talking about Petco. I'm talking about the chocolate shop or the cobbler, the local hardware store that's been in town since the 1920's or the independent grocer that every so often serves Checkerberry Sodas, like the soda fountain that owned the space in years past, did every day for 50 years.

Right now, Connecticut business owners are optimistic and cranking up business in gloves and masks and face shields. --On the flip side, employees aren't inclined to get new jobs for a while. $600 for 39 weeks in so many cases is more money than people make working 40 hours. So small business owners are going to wear a lot of hats for a while and unemployment agencies are worried about staying open until unemployment runs out. -- Let's hope the optimism remains. I'll be tracking the data until next Friday and see how we do.

#10daysCRE #NewHaven #NHV #GNHCC #Branford #Guilford #SmallTown #MainStreet #ReopenCT #CRE #SmallBiz #ForwardThinking #Optimism #unemployment