Three Against Less Than One

Three Versus Less than One

While WHO have raised their estimate of COVID-19 mortality to 3.4%, our president-turned epidemiologist opines the percentage is under 1%. Both parties agree to the body count figures but calculate percentage of two different bases of infected population. Trump’s being larger, his mortality necessarily rates turn out lower. He concludes: don’t panic if infected.

But I don’t panic at the thought of being infected. Rather, I panic at the prospect of death. What matters to me are my overall chances of survival, and not my chances of survival provided that I am getting sick.

For example, while crossing the African savanna I should be worried about being eaten by lions. I am least comforted by the fact that some clumsy lions only manage to kill 70% of those they catch. If last year lions have killed 5 of every 100 travelers, then my survival chances are 95%, period, some lions’ clumsiness notwithstanding.

Similarly, my actual chances to survive the epidemic are best approximated by the ratio of body count to the entire population. Overall mortality in the US is at around 0.85%. Assuming Trump’s 1% estimate is right and also assuming that 50% of the US population catches the bug, then mortality should climb to 1.35%.

Mr. President, your chances of dying have just increased by 58%. Are you panicked yet?