Threat of a second Balkan war?

Mr Henze, you are one of the best foreign connoisseurs of the Balkans Before we come to the topic of "Mini-Schengen" "Regional Economic Area", the solution for accession to the EU, what do you say to the development in Afghanistan and the promise of Prime Minister Rama, which was not voted on in parliament, to take in Afghans in Albania?

The deployment of NATO after the events of 11 September 2001 was an alliance case according to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, the USA asked its partners for assistance. The mission was successful, such a terrorist attack has not occurred again and?Osama bin Laden has been liquidated. NATO has organised a stable framework over the last 20 years. Unfortunately, the NGOs have failed.?

It took the Taliban less than 2 weeks to bring Afghanistan under their control, did that surprise them?

It was foreseeable; looking back now, we should have left Afghanistan as early as 2004/2005. The Taliban and their achaic Islamism of the Afghans with all its inhuman and misogynistic abominations is accepted by a not small part of the Afghans. The aim of the NATO mission was not to establish Switzerland 2.0 there, but to prevent Afghanistan from initiating another 2001. With modern technology, this can be organised without ground operations. I assume that this will happen now.

What?

There are two steps. First, that cities like Jalabad, Kandahar or Lashkaragh would fall did not surprise me, these are traditional Taliban hot spots, we always expected that. But the fact that the more liberal north with Mazar-i-Sharif or even Herat in the west would fall away so quickly, that made my legs pull away. The territories of the old warlords such as Dostum, Atta or Khan are also located there.?

The Northern Alliance was always seen as a wall against the Taliban. Does it no longer exist?

Obviously, a lot of money has flowed and they have lost the loyalty of the Afghans. The people no longer want to wage war, their protection, NATO, is gone, the warlords are all corrupt too. And then it is also explainable that the normal, small soldier says: If the general leaves with his money, then I leave too. The officers were no role models, they lacked leadership, character, attitude.

Can the training of an army in a corrupt country be successful at all?

I would ask more comprehensively: can it succeed in a culture that is so completely different from ours in the West? Who have not experienced the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, the American Revolution, the World Wars, who do not share the UN Convention on Human Rights? I don't have a definitive answer. But the question of whether the Train, Advise and Assist concept can be successful in such regions must now be thoroughly clarified.

And there is a second issue, the uncoordinated withdrawal and the ad hoc change of the withdrawal date from the end of October to the end of August by the USA. The US withdrawal is now based on a central decision by Trump, the Biden administration has nothing to do with it. But the withdrawal planning was in their hands and it all seems uncoordinated and chaotic. The intelligence agencies have also trusted disinformation, not a good state of affairs. Biden had led in a conversation with Richard Holbrooke in 2010. Biden stated without talking much, we need to get out of Afghanistan. Holbroke must have been shocked and replied that one had certain obligations to the Afghans who had supported the allies.... Biden said, allow me to quote: "...this is not our problem. We got away with it in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it."-"Fuck that," Holbrooke quotes Biden's reaction at the time. Biden failed utterly, but it was predictable on his part.

Instead of now declaring that they don't know what will happen after the withdrawal of the troops, Biden, like the SPD Foreign Minister Maas, declared in Berlin that they don't assume that the Taliban will take over the country any time soon. It was probably also an attempt by both to put a positive spin on their own failure.?

However, there are also increases, with almost comedic reactions from Mrs. Pelosi in Washington. Faced with reports of the brutality of the new rulers in Kabul, she warned them: The Taliban should know, the Democrat said, that the world will be watching their actions. That will certainly make the Taliban think.?(Editor's note: Mr Henze laughs)

That now, against this background, the USA is asking destabilised and poor countries like Albania to take in thousands of Afghans instead of flying them directly to the USA or the EU is absolutely incomprehensible, it only shifts the problems to other countries. This plan should not be implemented. Certainly, a special NATO summit is needed in the coming weeks.

Understanding now of Albania: "Mini-Schengen" "Regional Economic Area", the solution for joining the EU?

Albania's Prime Minister Rama likes to present himself as an ardent supporter of the EU and its values. He regularly pays homage to the Chancellor with downright declarations of love, calls her by her first name, is always looking for the opportunity for a joint photo praising her humanist-democratic stance, and hands out gifts. Albania, however, is facing a social, political and economic abyss.

For example, Rama has made many promises to the EU, many concepts and plans have been drawn up on paper, but hardly anything has been implemented, he has always been interested in money transfers from the EU, but has delivered nothing to justify the opening of talks.?This can be seen in the 2019 earthquake disaster in Albania, pandemic 2020 the Albanian people are suffering the consequences of natural disasters.?

The Rama government's disaster management was not organised. The Albanian government has done little in the last 8 years. The massively manipulated parliamentary elections in 2017,2021 and the massive corruption by the Rama executive, the lack of rule of law , an undemocratic electoral law are also irritating. The Rama government can hardly be trusted.??

What do you mean?

We should first note that the postponement is necessary to clarify a date for the start of accession talks with the EU for Albania, as far as the opposition, after the elections that were repeatedly rigged in 2021, is not part of a Grand Coalition to eliminate the state of emergency, on a parity basis, until new elections are held. New elections are not a solution at the moment because the problems in Albania are too serious.

Why?

Well we are dealing with an illegitimate Rama government, which is also politically responsible for the most corrupt executive in Europe. The Rama government has presented itself very badly in recent years, it has not pursued a serious government policy, it has neglected the country, hundreds of thousands of Albanians have left the country since 2013, and the Rama government has not fulfilled the conditions set by the EU in any way. Albania has always been a part of Europe, Albania has valuable people, the country is beautiful, has many potentials and very interesting resources and an impressive culture, and Albania will also be able to become a member of the EU very soon. On the contrary, the Rama government has organised everything in recent years in such a way that the EU had to reject it.

What is Rama doing? He is not working to create the conditions for accession.?No, he is now showing his true colours, negotiating with Serbia and then with Vucic, which is absurd and a real problem for the future of Albania and without including Kosovo.

Why is this a problem?

There are two problems in this context, one is the problem between Kosovo and Serbia and then Serbia's close cooperation with Russia.

Let me first briefly address the Kosovo issue. Vucic, with whom Rama now has an association agreement, euphemistically called "mini-Schengen" or "regional economic area", was an active member of the Serbian radical party during the time of Serbian war crimes from 1993 to 2008, for which he was Serbian Minister of Information from 1998 to 2000, so in the middle of the terrible Balkan war, Serbia was at war, also in Kosovo, he had the responsibility for propaganda.?

Mr Henze, the dominant figure in the issue of mini-Schengen and the Regional Economic Area is Alexander Vucic, is that a problem??

Yes and no.

How may I understand you?

As a person, Alexander Vucic is not a problem, he is supposed to be an eloquent interlocutor, his political view on the reorganisation of the Balkans is the problem. I will give you two examples that show very well how the nomenklatura in Belgrade actually thinks.?During a visit to the former Serbian province of Kosovo in 2018, Vu?i? gave a fiery speech to local Serbs in Kosovo against the backdrop of renewed tensions and contrary to EU and US efforts to reach a historic reconciliation agreement between Belgrade and Pristina.?"Milo?evi? was a great Serb leader whose intentions were certainly good. But the results were very bad. This was because our wishes were unrealistic - while we neglected and underestimated the interests and wishes of other nations," Vu?i? said. "For this reason, we paid the highest price. We have not become greater".

Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, known for his populist statements, spoke out clearly in 2021. At a ceremony marking the 13th founding anniversary of his Socialist Movement, a small alliance partner of Aleksandar Vucic's ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Vulin pleaded for the "construction of a Serbian world". The task of this generation of politicians is to "implement the unification of Serbs wherever they live", Vulin said. This statement brought back memories of the Greater Serbia idea of the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, whom Vucic described as a great leader. At the same time, Vulin appealed to Vucic to "take responsibility for this and run for president again". The next presidential elections are due to take place in spring 2022. Bosnia's Foreign Minister Bisera Turkovic expressed her expectations that Vucic would officially distance himself from Vulin's statements. However, this did not happen. A glorification of Milo?evi? and the focus on a Yugoslavia 2.0, that is the core of Vucic's basic political attitude, a nationalist potential of the Serbs in the region and beyond the borders of Kosovo, which should not be underestimated even after almost two decades of peace in the Balkans.?The West in particular the EU seems to me to be very naive in this context.

What do you mean by that?

EU policy increasingly lives on wishes and not on realities, that is an increasingly, real problem. On the one hand, we can see this in the so-called progress reports of the EU representatives. Basically, these are reports on developments in Albania, for example. But instead of this report being classified as a "country report", it is called a progress report, so per se, regressions and undesirable developments are completely ignored. This is not a semantic issue, we see this very well in Serbia, but also especially in Albania. This kind of policy obscures the view of realities. Serbia's President Vu?i? said after the meeting with the EU in Brussels that Prime Minister Kurti asked him when he would finally recognise Kosovo's independence. "My answer was: never!", Vu?i? said.?

Vucic is very clear and unambiguous on this issue, this clarity in political communication should be taken very seriously, the Serbs will never give up their territorial claims in the Balkans for historical reasons, they are not willing to compromise. We can compare this well with Putin and Ukraine or Crimea. These claims to power will not be given up and will be implemented at the right time. We Europeans have to point out our interests and the red lines much more clearly and explicitly, and also actually draw the consequences if the red lines are crossed. Only clear communication that is not based on wishes but on realities will be understood by Rama in Belgrade and Tirana and can then lead to compromises or to a mutual approach.

The European and German NGOs also pose a problem in some cases. We have some representatives there who increasingly publish subjective opinions and confuse objective reporting in the capitals of the EU with wishful thinking. This is of course a real problem, these alternative facts. Since the political class in the EU needs to be informed objectively, that is the only way to make real , political decisions. Let me give you an example.?

In an interview today, a political NGO representative from Germany, based in Belgrade, only used the subjunctive when asked by a journalist whether there was corruption in infrastructure development, and spoke of large cooperative projects in railway development between the Chinese, the EU and Russia, from Belgrade.

This interview shows the lack of objective presentation of facts and the distance to the ruling class. When political organisations are informed at this level by their NGOs, no engagement can be expected to solve the core problems. Similar to other organisations, the leadership of NGOs should rotate constantly, at least every two years, so that no habitual structures can develop in these highly repressive and corrupt regions of the Balkans. Infection with these problematic structures can only be prevented by an intact compliance structure.

Your reference to Russia, how is that to be understood?

Russia's mainstay in the Balkans is Serbia. Putin awarded his counterpart Vu?i? the Alexander Nevsky Order of Merit, which is the highest order in Russia. Why and for what?Vu?i? returned the favour with the grandiose reception some time ago and cheering crowds. Around 80 Russian media teams recorded how much the Serbs love Vladimir Putin. After Slavic Orthodox Montenegro became a Nato member almost two years ago, Putin shows that Russia has a foothold in the Balkans after all - namely Serbia. Besides the demonstration of love and friendship, 26 economic contracts worth hundreds of millions of euros were signed between Serbia and the Russian Federation: Russian companies are to modernise Serbian railways, Serbia is to become a transit country for the Russian-Turkish gas pipeline "Turk Stream", Serbia's armament with Russian weapons and military equipment is to continue, the two countries will also cooperate in the future in the field of high technology, even in civilian nuclear programmes and space research. Russia and Serbia are conducting joint military exercises on the Croatian border.

Kosovo has been completely ignored in the current negotiations. There can only be negotiations if Kosovo is recognised by Belgrade. Kosovo can therefore not negotiate and has the goal of becoming a member of the EU and not a member of an economic alliance dominated by Serbia under the curatorship of Russia. Rama knows that. Therefore, there has been a deliberate attempt to isolate Kosovo in recent weeks through the conduct of negotiations. An approach that will certainly not meet with the approval of the Albanian and Kosovar population and the international community.?Of course, it is a big problem for the Albanian nation, it wants to become a member of the EU and not of the Eurasian Economic Union.?

So mini-Schengen / Regional economic space = Eurasian Economic Union?

Indeed, we must not look at the context in a linear way, but at the individual processes.The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a merger around the Russian Federation to form a single market with a customs union. The EAEU is the de facto successor to the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, or CMEA. The CMEA was founded in 1949 as a socialist counterpart to the Marshall Plan/NATO and EU, dissolved in 1989 for the benefit of Eastern Europe. Serbia signed a free trade area agreement with the EAEU on 25 October 2019. The EU, and Slovakia at the time, urged Serbia not to establish a free trade area with the Eurasian Economic Union to avoid a possible collision with the European Union. "If you are serious about your European orientation, you have to take political decisions that bring you closer together.?This is not one of them," Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Laj?ák said after the meeting of EU and Western Balkan foreign ministers in Helsinki. "You cannot go in several directions at the same time," he added.The European Commission has also warned Serbia against pushing trade deals with the Russian-led economic bloc. Serbia was not interested in this at all, and now the focus is on Albania and Macedonia, i.e. a Yugoslavia 2.0, which will be an integral part of the EAEU.?

How do you explain the attitude of the Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama to this agreement?

You see, rule of law and democracy per se do not exist in Albania at the moment, the economy is very bad, foreign investment is almost zero, there is only narco-investment from abroad, high unemployment, human trafficking, mass exodus of young people, abject poverty, ageing of the population in the countryside, dilapidated infrastructure, massive corruption of the Rama government administration, manipulation of the 2017 parliamentary elections together with the mafia as reported by the international press, holding of illegal local elections on 30. June 2019, increasing heroin trafficking, constant breach of the constitution by the Rama government, persecution of the opposition and critical journalists, expropriation of citizens without being able to defend themselves against the expropriation before a constitutional court, characterise the situation in Albania. Albania is on the brink of national bankruptcy. In road construction and health care, contracts are concluded that are called PPPs. In reality, these are family contracts between the Rama government and friends from the business world. The people of Albania are exploited in this way. The Rama government wants to distract from these catastrophes, first Rama wanted to create a Greater Albania in spring 2018, a joint foreign ministry with Kosovo, when that did not work out, from autumn 2018, together with Belgrade, cooperation was worked on, briefly interrupted, as this commitment did not meet with the approval of the Albanian population, by the local elections in 2019 and the parliamentary elections in 2021. In this context, I would just like to remind you of Operation Allied Force, a NATO military operation against the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which it carried out in the framework of the Kosovo war from 24 March to 10 June 1999. It saved the lives of many, many Albanians in the Balkans. Germany, in particular, prevented worse through its engagement in the Balkans.Vucic, with whom Rama has an association agreement, euphemistically called "mini-Schengen", was an active member of the Serbian radical party during this period of Serbian war crimes from 1993 to 2008, for which he was Serbian Minister of Information from 1998 to 2000, so in the middle of the terrible Balkan war, Serbia was at war, also in Kosovo, he had the responsibility for propaganda.?Vucic himself has certainly not abandoned his basic stance, the restoration of Yugoslavia, as Greater Serbia, so why should he deviate from the nationalist goal.

Kosovo is completely ignored in the process. A simple disaster for stability in the Balkans. An approach that does not meet with the approval of the Albanian and Kosovar peoples and the international community.?

Do you think that Serbia will now gain influence in Tirana?

No. A majority of the Serbian population has expressed indifference or even rejection towards the EU in opinion polls for years. While, for example, 84 percent in Kosovo, 93 percent in Albania and over 89 percent in Northern Macedonia express a positive attitude towards the Union, the figure in Serbia is only 29 percent.?These are the lowest approval rates ever measured in an accession country. These results are also remarkable because experience shows that popular approval of the EU often falls after accession.This is a very important difference between the two nations; they have completely different, nation-state objectives.?There is no basis for close bilateral cooperation between Albania and Serbia, not to mention the Kosovo issue.?The Albanian nation wants to become a member of the EU and sees itself as part of the Western world, not as an autonomous republic of Serbia.The political goal must therefore now be EU membership and accession to the EU Schengen area.

Why is Kosovo not part of this process?

Serbia does not recognise Kosovo's borders. It fought a war over Kosovo and lost it. At the political level, there are still calls for a bilateral agreement with the neighbouring state of Kosovo, which Serbia has not yet recognised. Actually, such an agreement should already have been concluded, but so far not even the agreements already concluded with Kosovo in 2013 have been implemented. Serbia alone is responsible for this and it is against this background that the Albanian Prime Minister Rama is now negotiating. Serbia apparently wants to win the Balkan war after all.

But where does the Serbian rejection of the EU come from??

When asked about it, Serbian President Vucic points out that a majority of EU states recognised Kosovo, the former province of Serbia, as an independent state ten years ago.?Indeed, a correct decision by the EU. This recognition led to peace in the Balkans. Even then, the goal was for all Balkan countries to become members of the EU as independent nation states. Serbia still claims to rule over the Western Balkans and considers Kosovo as part of Serbia; Albanians are certainly alien to Serbia there. The temptation to see the Balkans as a single entity is strong. But the image is a cliché. It is immoral and unfair to lump all Balkan peoples together. Greeks, Albanians, Romanians, Bulgarians - none of these ancient cultural peoples attacked their neighbours, they only defended themselves. An aggressive policy is only pursued by Serbia, which we could see very well in the 90s, remember the Serbian leader Radovan Karad?i?. Only the massive intervention of NATO and Germany in particular has led to the restoration of borders and peace. This is a crucial difference between Serbia and Albania. The Albanian people want to become members of the EU, the Serbian people do not.?For this reason, the German Bundestag made it clear in September 2019 that the existing borders in the Balkans, including the borders of Kosovo, must be respected and that any aspirations to the contrary are incompatible with EU accession and must lead to the termination of accession negotiations.

And what is to be done?

Therefore, if the Albanian nation wants to become a member of the EU, and 93% of the population does, there can only be one Schengen in the EU.?Cooperation with Serbia and Russia leads to association with these two countries and not with the EU, that leads to no future, that leads to the demise of the proud Albanian nation. Serbia must abide by the agreement on Kosovo as a nation state, Kosovo will become a member of the EU and so will Serbia if it wants to. This means that the legal framework of the EU will then apply, including a common currency and the Schengen regulation, which is a peacemaking process in the Balkans. Albania must now work hard to meet the criteria for EU accession.??Rama does not know these 15 criteria, as he has publicly stated several times.?

The Rama government has completely failed on this issue, it is also not capable of organising this in terms of facts and personnel. There also seems to be no real interest on the part of the Rama government in membership, with one exception, there is interest in EU funding. The Albanian nation must now decide whether it wants to become a member of a Greater Serbia under Russian influence and give up its millennial culture and continue to vegetate and lose its youth and children for good, or whether Albania wants to preserve its identity, culture and values as well as its economic independence and find its future in the EU.?

If this is the case, Albania should very quickly form a new Grand Coalition of National Unity, for time, in the interest of Albania's future. It is now time to renounce being right and focus on the common opportunities, on the future of Albania. It is necessary to solve the primary problems together: EU accession, pandemic, economic disaster and prepare and ensure democratic elections after solving the problems. There is no more time for experiments.

Mr Henze, thank you very much for the interview.

Interview in Albanian language:

https://shekulli.com.al/rama-ben-deklarata-te-sinqerta-dashurie-ndaj-merkel-eksperti-gjerman-tregon-deshtimet-e-kryeministrit-te-shqiperise-dhe-projektin-mini-shengen/