Threat Hunting considering IoC: The Absence of Evidence

IoC

Indicators of Compromise (IoCs) are crucial for understanding security breaches. They are like the breadcrumbs we follow to uncover hidden threats within a network. Examples can include unusual network traffic, unauthorized access attempts, and connections to known malicious IP addresses or domains. Without these traces, identifying and addressing security threats would be much more challenging.

Evidence

In Threat Intelligence, the IoC is a piece of evidence that refers to any data or information that supports the identification, understanding, and response to a cyber threat. Evidence is crucial for validating the presence of a threat, understanding its nature, and determining the appropriate defensive measures.

Absence of evidence

However, one important lesson I've learned over the years is captured by the saying, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” This is a quote by Carl Sagan, an American astronomer and one of the leading science communicators of the 20th century.

Its importance relies on the highlight of the logical fallacy where a hypothesis is assumed to be true or false before being scientifically and satisfactorily investigated. This phrase reminds us to be careful about jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t see. It means that just because we haven’t found proof of something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

Imagine you’re looking for your keys in your house. You check the usual places—your coat pocket, the kitchen counter, the table by the door, but you don’t find them. The fact that you didn’t find your keys in these places doesn’t mean they aren’t in the house. They could be in an unexpected spot, like under the couch cushions or in a pants pocket.

This means that just because we don't see immediate signs of a threat doesn't mean we're in the clear. Threat actors are becoming more sophisticated, using advanced techniques to hide their tracks and avoid detection. They might employ zero-day exploits, LotL tactics, or APTs that can lurk undetected for long periods. From my point of view, I’ve found that when IoCs are not immediately apparent, it often signals the need for a deeper investigation.

The power of collaboration and Intelligence

Moreover, the power of collaboration and Intelligence sharing cannot be underestimated. The power of collaboration and Intelligence sharing is not just a suggestion, it's a necessity. By actively engaging with other organizations and participating in information-sharing communities, we can stay informed about emerging threats and their IoCs. This sense of community is a powerful tool in our cybersecurity arsenal.

Staying ahead of potential threats

Ultimately, Continuous Monitoring, proactive Threat Hunting, Behavioral Analysis, Regular Audits and Assessments, Network Segmentation, and Threat Intelligence integration are vital in staying ahead of potential threats. This holistic approach has become a modern condition, ensuring we protect our networks effectively and stay one step ahead of adversaries.