Threads vs Twitter: What happens next?

Threads has added 100 million followers since its debut one week ago, and real time social may be forever changed.

Prior to the launch of Threads, Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino's assertion that?there's only one Twitter?rang true, and kind of always has. Twitter is a classic case of network effects in action.

Whether you are following a live sporting event like the NBA Draft, or watching the final episode of Succession at 9pm on a Sunday evening, there was really only one place you'd ever go to follow along with others and see what people were saying about it in real time, and of course that was Twitter.

Simply put, if 99% of the conversation is on Twitter and 1% is on Mastodon, you're going to go to Twitter if you want to see what's going on.

The Twitter competitors / clones that have popped up over the last couple of years: Mastodon, Blue Sky, T2, have all essentially failed, at least when it comes to replacing Twitter as the go-to place for real time conversation online.

Enter Threads.?For the first time ever, a Twitter competitor has the scale to truly challenge Twitter for this space in the online ecosystem. Instagram / Meta have leveraged their existing brand and reach to great effect in the first week since launch, in a couple of ways in particular:

i) Keep your existing Instagram username.

ii) One click to follow all of the same people you already follow on Instagram.

By doubling down on the existing social graph that people have already built on Instagram, and streamlining the signup process (no new handle or password required) they have parlayed their existing network effect from Instagram over to Threads, and the results have been quite spectacular so far.

In its first week, Threads has surpassed 100 million downloads. As I mentioned in?my first reaction?to the the Threads launch, while these numbers at first glance appear to be eye-popping (e.g. 2 million users in the first 2 hours), it is to be expected, to some degree, given how much Instagram is pushing folks to essentially recreate their existing social graph, but this time for Threads instead of Instagram itself. Meaning, make it easy for your 1 billion existing users to sign up to your new product, and you could argue getting 10% of them to do so is not a far fetch. Not to say their launch hasn't been impressive (and kudos to all involved), however this is the point:?only Instagram was positioned to create a Twitter competitor this effective in this short a time frame.

With all that said, below I've outlined answers to five of the most critical questions as we keep tabs on how the battle will play out:

1. What does this mean for the real time social media landscape?

It's a pretty big deal. Initially, we've seen everyday users reporting higher engagement on Threads (with lower follower count) than they're seeing on Twitter, and this initial positive first impression will be enough for some users to stick around, build a following, or simply consume content on Threads going forward. Over time, the question will be whether Threads can build and maintain itself as a viable alternative that can convince Twitter users to jump ship, or at least cross-post to Threads, and whether they can convince existing Instagram users to start a new text-based habit with Threads. If they can do these both at scale, we'll have a formidable new kid on what has historically been Twitter's block.

2. What are the big picture implications if Threads continues to grow and establishes itself as a true alternative to Twitter?

Imagine a world where the Twitter pie is divided in two, and Threads takes half of the usage.

For individual users, it does become yet another channel they may feel compelled, obliged (or even—gasp—like) to participate in.

For brands, it becomes yet another channel to manage. Thoughts and prayers go out to the social media managers who have to:

i) Come up with a Threads strategy for their boss (or themselves)

ii) Create content / programming for another channel (beyond the first week of inherent hype and excitement, where content tends to flow more naturally)

iii) Figure out everything from reporting to where this channel falls in their mix. Is it pure a brand love play? Will brands—or more to the point—when will brands start to use Threads for promotional posts rather than engagement? When will Meta bring advertising into the mix? (Maybe soon, given recent reporting that?branded content tools are on their way?for paid promotion, perhaps as a stepping stone to advertising in future.)

Suffice to say, if your social media manager is looking rather haggard after the last week, be sure to offer them a coffee, or at least a like or two on your company's new Threads account.

The new social media stack for brands: Twitter / Instagram / Facebook / LinkedIn / TikTok / YouTube / Threads. Sheesh! :)

3. Thread bois vs Celebs: What are the cultural differences between Twitter and Threads?

While Threads may appear on the surface to be a relatively like-for-like clone of Twitter (with additional features such as a following feed, edit button, and search to be?added soon?according to Head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri) the other critical differentiator to consider here is culture.

Twitter has always had a certain culture to it, a certain vibe if you will, whereby people post as more of their true selves, rather than the more polished version you'd find on Instagram, or the?professional?version you see here on LinkedIn.

Because of that, there is a natural reluctance from many Twitter true believers to embrace Instagram, of all places, as a place where they would post their authentic thoughts (and RIP early Twitter, by the way. What a time.?#FollowFriday, anyone?)

Many a mocking tweet has been made in the last week decrying the celebrity-infused timeline over on Threads, or the cringey brand posts that are already cropping up over there.

Twitter users are accustomed to creating short form written content, and have been pumping out tweets for years. Meanwhile, those who are newer to the game and hopping on board as more of an Instagram user who's trying out the new thing, may find they struggle to come up with new things to post after the initial hype around Threads has died down (i.e. from now on).

4. Twitter's communities: can Threads replicate them?

Twitter has attracted some important groups of users that have made it what it is today. To name a few:

• Celebrities
• Journalists and news-based accounts
• Professional athletes
• Interest-based communities: e.g.?#NBATwitter

Threads shouldn't have too much trouble courting the celebrity demographic, given, well, it's a child of Instagram.

However, the other categories here will be important battlegrounds as the two platforms strive to attract or retain these highly-followed accounts that drive most of the engagement on these networks.

For example, when a breaking news event happens, how long will it be (if ever) before we turn to Threads rather than Twitter to see what's going on in the world right now?

Another key demo close to my heart:?#NBATwitter. This is a real thing, and this type of community based on a shared interest such as the NBA, is exactly the type of activity and content that keeps folks glued to their phones, refreshing their app 200 times a day (definitely not looking at myself here).

When the recent trades, news and rumors associated with NBA Summer League have broken over the last week, there hasn't been a mass migration to Threads to discuss what's going on. Will Threads be able to attract communities such as?#NBATwitter?to build a real community that can compete with, or co-exist with those who stick around on Twitter?

5. So who will win then, Francis?

I'm glad you asked. Based on the rhetoric (and memes) coming from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, it would seem Meta is in this for the long haul, and is likely to pour massive amounts of resources into this thing.

That will require growing the Threads team substantially, building out a host of product features, and investing in community building in a big way to ensure that the Threads experience is fresh, differentiated, and is genuinely a fun and/or useful place to be.

This could be a long, drawn-out battle, and could require a cage match between Elon and Zuck to settle the dispute, if it goes to a 12th round in the years to come.

Side note: It's an exciting time for people who work in social media.

While it is exhausting for already tapped-out social teams to have one more channel to think about and work on, it is one of those periods in social media that is new and different, mostly in good ways that will serve as important experience in future years as you roll with the ever-changing social landscape.

This first week has reminded me a lot of the early days in social, where followers would be genuinely excited to get a like or a reply from a brand account. There was a lot of creativity from brands in this first week, and the (largely) text-based format is one of the ultimate tests of skill when it comes to capturing attention with copywriting.

As Threads grows, and users become accustomed to seeing brands on there, there will also be implications for customer service teams. Will brands reply to all sorts of questions on Threads in the same way that has become the expectation on Twitter? Will social and customer experience teams have to resource both channels in a bigger way? Can I get approval to hire another five people next week? All of these questions will need to be answered, but that's for another day.

As the story develops, I'll post semi-regular updates on the battle.

P.S. What do you think of the Twitter vs Threads war so far? Tell me who you think has the advantage in the comments.

P.P.S. If you'd like to see more of this type of content, be sure to follow me here on LinkedIn, give me a follow on?Twitter?and/or?Threads, or sub to my (soon to be more populated?Substack)