Thoughts on the Putin-Trump Call

Wanted to highlight some elements of the two readouts issued today (one from the White House, one from the Kremlin) on the discussion between Presidents Trump and Putin.

From the Russian readout, this phrase leaped out at me:

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts toward resolving the Ukrainian conflict bilaterally, taking into account the aforementioned proposals by the U.S. President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being established.

This seems to suggest that Ukraine itself, as well as the Europeans, are not going to be part of the diplomatic effort. This adheres to the Kremlin preference to see the United States as the sole interlocutor for resolution of the conflict.

I've always argued that for Putin, the touchpoint for how he views how relations between Moscow and Washington ought to be conducted is the 1972 communique between Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev. Echoes of that formulation ring through loud and clear in this statement:

Both sides expressed mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations, recognizing the special responsibility of Russia and the U.S. for ensuring global security and stability.

The U.S. readout is also fascinating for what it says, starting with this:

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith efforts.

This is the closest any U.S. official statement has come to aligning with Moscow's view that the invasion was preventable and that there were workable diplomatic solutions on the table. While not directly named, the "long ago" efforts seem to be a reference to the Istanbul talks.

If the Trump administration is in fact prepared to shift more of its attention to the Indo-Pacific basin, then this sentiment flows directly from that assessment:

The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts.

Add to that the supposed Russian agreement that "Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel", this seems to presage an effort to both terminate the active phase of the war in Europe and stabilize the Middle East.

As I've noted earlier, Putin's decision to adopt a "yes but" approach to the initial ceasefire proposal advocated by Trump was not viewed as an outright refusal, but as a basis for further talks.