Thoughts on OEMs
William Kelly
EV advocate. Petrolhead. Connect. I don't mind disagreement. It forces thinking. I happen to know a lot about aquaculture & am also a consultant in CSI project management. Part time scribbler in matters motoring & A/V.
It's been a bit of bender on the OEMs recently. What does Trump's latest moves actually mean for our OEMs?
AGOA is almost certainly gone as things stand today. I can't see it surviving.
It will impact Ford marginally. I pick Ford because it's the only America OEM we have. We currently have 7 'formal' OEMs for reference
I was reflecting on a video with Magda Wierzycka posted on Biznews recently. She's correct in a few matters. America has forced us to the negotiating table and whether we attend voluntarily or with 'screw youu we won't come' attitude is immaterial. The reality is that America does a lot of trade and investment with us.
If we choose to alienate America there will be consequences. Our muppets in government will be spouting forth much ideology as they do and no matter what will be claiming victory of some kind.
It doesn't matter. What matters for our OEMs are the motherships. These are global companies and what decisions their boards make have less than the square root of bugger all to do with what our politicians rabbit on about in ever increasingly smaller circles of increasing agitation. They don't care.
Look at that list.
Two things pop up for me. The first is Europe and the second is Japan. Europe first because despite Trump taking on Denmark and the world watching with stunned silence the smack given to Canada the Europeans understand the nature of trade with America far better than we do. They will not easily give it up to a petulant 5 year in office snot nosed brat. No no no - that's just not going to happen.
They'll work around Trump and they'll negotiate. Their business leaders will take a close look at what it now means to be doing business in America, or for that matter, around the world and I suspect that with a closer look at South Africa, our OEMs will be closed up faster than you can say 'gone baby gone'.
That's Europe. What about Japan?
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Different story. I think it will be a lot harder for the Japanese to engage in the divorce talks. Japan is as yet untouched by the Trump executive orders pen but a more golden opportunity to deepen trade with America has to be something on the radar for Japanese business who must be salivating at the lips.
With crappy non existent policy and an anti American stance in SA, it will become easier for them. The best case scenario I see here is a local management buyout of Toyota SA from Japan and effectively a licensed operation that will steer the OEM out of the firing line of the Trump guns.
But without an EV policy in place, or the backing of your gigantic mothership would you as management be considering a buy out?
That's the downside.
If we play nice with Trump, might we even be able to open up export opportunities to the States to replace our soon to be going away market in Europe?
Hell yeah. We just might.
That's the upside.
So. What are we going to choose to do? And Mr Kirby: You were almost right. But I don't think that the next 3 years will be vital for our OEMs. We're down now to the next 12 months.
I'll buy you that beer. You're going to need it.