Thoughts on Garcia Luna's conviction

A few weeks ago, I posted my thoughts on the Garcia Luna trial about half way through. Now he’s been found guilty. He is looking at a heavy conviction, maybe life in prison. Here are a few thoughts about the trial’s conclusion.

1. It’s a win for the good guys. Though corruption may reach the highest levels in Mexico, the US Justice Department showed – again – that the biggest fish get caught. This means that there is only so high you can climb before you get noticed, and there’s only so far you can go before you’re caught. This win proves that the “arm” of the law is indeed long.
2. The prosecution built its winning case largely on witness testimony and related discovery. It worked. This is good news. Though it doesn’t mean that bringing these cases to trial is any easier, it does mean that the burden of proof is less cumbersome and – ultimately – a more manageable endeavor, especially when trying suspects who worked closely with men and women currently behind bars with nothing to trade but information for less time in their cell.
3. This win is more atmospheric than tactical. Garcia Luna has arguably been off the board for a while now. His conviction and imprisonment does not have any direct or immediate impact on black market economics in Mexico, or further South. That said, it has reinforced the widely-held notion that the Drug Enforcement Administration is an effective multi-jurisdictional law enforcement organization. Budding criminals across the Americas should take notice: if the DEA is on to you, your time is limited.
4. Through testimony and other information that this case brought to light we may extrapolate that the strategy and tactics of Mexico’s largest criminal organizations have largely not changed over time. Across several trials and convictions of highly-placed criminal entrepreneurs going back 15 years, we can see the corners and edges of the jigsaw puzzle that represents how these men and women do business. It’s like an aged, weathered blueprint with a long shelf life. This information allows us to sharpen our analysis and advice when helping others avoid Mexico’s black market economics and its influence.
5. Finally, this win also reinforces that the institution of corruption is alive and well in Mexico. Though the country remains an excellent place to invest across many sectors, licit economic actors are not the only ones making investments. As criminal organizations broaden their portfolios to mitigate risk across their asset base, they are reaching into the operations across a growing number of economic sectors. They’re also stuffing the pockets of an established and growing number of politicians and politically appointed technocrats. Garcia Luna’s loss is your gain as long as you make the effort to know who’s who in the zoo.