Thoughts from a Measured Marketer: Bud Light Edition

I love Bud Light.? I really do.? Here in Austin, my favorite cantina even pours it in a margarita glass? with salt and lime (#maudies).? But I don't love their latest marketing campaign with Dylan Mulvaney because it was doomed to fail from the start.

As a quick recap, BL’s brand had been declining for years, and they sought to revive it by appealing to a younger, wider base. They partnered with a trans influencer, Dylan Mulvaney, for a recent marketing campaign that caused backlash and boycotts from the right, as well as lost advertisers and shareholder value (a 5% drop in share price resulting in over $6 billion loss in market value). The CEO later issued a statement that lacked even a reference to the marketing campaign.

I'm sure you've heard enough critiques of this campaign from the marketing community. Most I've seen focus on poor execution, namely that BL did not stand by its brand decision to partner with a trans influencer and the values that come with it. But the problem began far before that. The strategy was flawed from the earliest stages due to lazy analytics — both in market research and revenue modeling.

BL’s partner selection implies that its market research concluded that young = left, left = inclusion, and inclusion = trans.? That's an obtuse view. Deeper examination suggests BL may have found a young, growing segment a little closer to home.? For example, a 2020 survey conducted by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) found that, among college students, those who identified as conservative or libertarian outnumbered those who identified as liberal or progressive.??

So why didn't BL focus on this segment? Likely because it's a much more diverse group that is harder to target with a blunt mass marketing object.? So they opted for an easier target audience instead, but one that is drastically different that their current customer base.

Clearly one of the objectives of targeting the new audience was to grow revenue through sales. When done correctly, revenue models are useful to see how different factors (some positive, some negative) play out in total at different points in time.? The revenue modeling behind this campaign either lacked basic consumer behavior principles that would have highlighted financial risks, or they were ignored.

From a timing perspective, it was naive to think that a bold campaign could win the hearts and minds of their desired audience in one fell swoop. It was also unrealistic to assume? there would not be immediate backlash from their core by deviating so starkly from their original brand and base. The strategy did not allow enough time to attract the new base before they could afford to lose or alienate the old -- something that should have been identified by proper revenue modeling.

The measured marketer's approach to Bud Light's original brand dilemma would have been to focus on a growing, adjacent customer segment and shift perception over time.? As the brand attracts new segments over time, it can afford to replace its core base.? This may not have been the sexy brand answer, but it would have been the sexy financial one.