Thoughts on Fisker Nissan

An interesting few days. Fisker reported its 4Q, and the numbers were ugly - that's three quarters of misses that removes any doubt that Fisker Inc has deliveries under control.

Fisker has created its mess, and a "slump in EV sales" has made things worse. It's a sad chapter in an otherwise glorious tale. Fisker Automotive (Henrik Fisker's first EV company) failed, but that was easily explained as being too early -- well before Tesla existed. This new Fisker Inc. was to be the comeback story - a glorious designer designed a glorious EV SUV. That part was true.

But the glorious designer didn't understand software or vehicle deliverery. Fisker Inc. attempted to deliver the first 5000 cars without infrastructure or a plan. They started delivering to angry customers who expected their vehicles months earlier. Software delays were the main reason, though the company never admitted that. I am unsure if they have finished delivering the first 5000 promised by last September.

Back to the glorious car - it is a nice car - and that's important. Well designed and well constructed. Both innovative and quirky, certainly unusual. The Fisker Ocean offers an exceptional drive. It's spacious, sporty, and elegant. The main complaint is its incomplete and buggy software which is slowly getting corrected. The company is rolling out version 2.0 - and owners are reporting that most open issues are resolved. A few more releases will add missing features.

I expect the Fisker Ocean to be complete and rock solid sometime this summer. (about a year later than I initially expected)

A few months ago, the company announced it would build a dealer network. Though I was initially disappointed, the move makes sense. First, Fisker Inc. is clueless about delivery. More importantly, the company has been touting its "asset-light" approach with outsourced manufacturing. A dealer network is more in line with asset-light. It also reduces cash flow pressure and builds a service network. The company has signed and opened a few dealers already and says there's strong interest.

Strong interest is not surprising. The reviews of the Fisker Ocean have been very consistent: excellent design, excellent ride, and buggy software. The software can and will be fixed. A new opportunity with a proven car is rare for dealers. Not to mention, dealers don't have many EV options. The Tesla Model Y is the number one selling car in the US, and is not sold through dealers. The Fisker Ocean competes head-to-head with the Y. That's just one car. Fisker gives dealers a path to a top-selling EV category with a planned portfolio that includes four new cars in two years.

The news last week was that Fisker is in talks regarding an investment from a major car maker. Since then, Reuters ran that the partner is Nissan - still unconfirmed. Nissan would majorly invest in Fisker, solving its cash flow crunch. They would also agree to build the Fisker Alaska truck in the US and license the platform to build its truck. Fisker has previously indicated a willingness to license its platforms.

This is an elegant arrangement. Fisker needs to build cars in the US in order to be eligible for tax credits. The decision to build the Ocean in Austria was made before the Inflation Reduction Act. Presumably, Nissan will also have an ownership stake in Fisker, and at curent prices that seems pretty safe too.

The stock in the toilet and reviews about bad software have impacted sales. In other words, fixing the software and building a dealer network will likely right the sales ship. Both are stated priorities.

The Inflation Reduction Act is the primary culprit behind the "EV slump." Very few EVs are eligible to receive the credit. Teslas do, and they are selling, but how much more can Tesla sell of the same lineup? We need more options.

The "EV slump" doesn't seem real to me. Year over year sales keep doubling, but suddenly there is a shadow on the economy. Layoffs are common, interest rates are high, and wallets are closing - across sectors. Sales of lots of things are down. EVs are cheaper to build, operate, and maintain - they will do fine.

Nissan and the structure of the deal are yet to be confirmed. I like what I hear - everyone gets something they need, and Fisker controls its brand.

#FSR #FiskerOcean #EV

My prior posts on the Fisker Ocean

My Ocean and Drone

Fisker Ocean, The Good Bad and Ugly

Thoughts on My Fisker Ocean