Thoughts on Decisions, Cyclone, Uncertainty ???

A few days ago, I found myself regularly staring at my windows, wondering if Cyclone Alfred was about to crash in our backyard. Definitely not the kind of guest we were planning on hosting, and the news didn’t help, oscillating between: “Maybe it will hit Brisbane, maybe go further North, or could be further South or even it could veer off”.?

My partner and I were left with more questions than answers. What do we do? Board up the house? Pack and drive to safer places? Simply hope for the best? At each new forecast, Alfred changed course, slowed down, accelerated, looped on itself and more.?

Uncertainty was unnerving.

That messy, cyclone-fueled indecision echoed how uncertainty creeps into every corner of our lives—especially the workplace. Whether it’s shifting market trends, organisational changes, or high-stakes decisions, we often find ourselves navigating unclear situations. The challenge? Too many of us freeze, terrified of the wrong move.

But what if we could turn uncertainty into a powerful decision-making tool?

What if we flipped the script and saw uncertainty as a signal—an invitation to assess, adapt, and grow? In my work coaching leaders and teams, I’ve seen the best professionals don’t wait for the storm to pass; they dance in the rain while it’s still bucketing down.

Take Nokia—once the king of mobile phones. When smartphones hit, they dithered, paralysed by the uncertainty of change, and watched their empire crumble. Then look at Netflix: from mailing DVDs to streaming to producing Oscar-worthy films, they’ve leaned into the unknown like it’s their secret weapon. The takeaway? Leaders and organisations that make timely decisions in the middle of uncertainty thrive; those who cling to the sidelines, waiting for perfect clarity, risk getting left behind.

Just like with Cyclone Alfred, waiting for the “final forecast” isn’t always an option—sometimes you’ve got to act before the wind howls. That’s the workplace reality too. Hesitate too long—hoping every variable aligns like a perfect Tetris game—and you’re caught unprepared when the storm hits. Leaders who acknowledge uncertainty, make a move, and stay agile come out stronger.

So how do you build that muscle? Here are three strategies I’ve honed with teams and execs to turn indecision into confident action

1- Shift from Prediction to Adaptation We obsess over certainty like it’s a prize to win. The truth? It’s a unicorn. Instead of fixating on the “perfect” decision, focus on adaptability and ask yourself: “What’s the best next step given what I know right now?” It’s less about guessing the storm’s path and more about having a Plan B when the roof leaks.

2- Use the 70% Rule? Amazon founder Jeff Bezos swears by this: waiting for 100% info is a fast track to missed opportunities and then irrelevance. Act when you’ve got 70% of the puzzle—because the ability to decide with a few pieces missing is what separates good leaders from great ones. (And no, it’s not an excuse to wing it entirely—calm down.)

3- Frame Decisions as Experiments? Not every choice is a do-or-die cliffhanger. When facing uncertainty, reframe your decision and treat it like a hypothesis: test it, tweak it, learn from it. It’s less pressure, more progress.

I once coached a CTO who struggled and overthought many of his decisions. One of them was about upgrading to a new software platform. He spent months analysing every detail, worried about making the wrong choice and betting on the wrong horse. Meanwhile, his competitors were already galloping ahead with similar tools. By the time he moved, his team was scrambling to catch up. If he’d embraced adaptability over perfection, he’d have been leading the pack, not eating their dust.?

The key takeaway? Decisiveness isn’t about having all the answers; it’s about having the confidence to act and adjust along the way.

Ready to Strengthen Your Decision-Making?

If you’d like to sharpen your ability to make clear decisions in the middle of uncertainty, I have something for you. Download my Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Worksheet here.

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Let’s turn hesitation into confident action. The best leaders aren’t those who never make mistakes; they’re the ones who make decisions, learn, and adjust.

To clarity and momentum,

Lison

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