Thoughts on COVID-19

Written by one of Australia's best GP's...

"It's just a cold/flu. I don't know why we are making such a big fuss about it!"

Quite a number of people in our community have expressed the above sentiment. This has prompted me to write my response, below.

Yes, COVID-19 generally IS a mild illness in 80% who catch it.

So, if you permit me to use my group of friends as an analogy, if 10 of us caught it:

8 of us will feel pretty well after a few days - the COVID-19 infection is like the common cold for these 8.

1 of us will feel like we've been run over by a bus - laid up in bed (maybe in a hospital bed even) and sick like a dog for 2 weeks, then recover slowly to normal after a while.

1 of us will be severely unwell with pneumonia, requiring to stay in hospital and possibly needing ICU admission and help to breathe with a ventilator. There is a high probability this one friend will succumb, and die.

It is that 1 person we want to protect, as a community, as a city, as a country.

We know the COVD-19 virus is very contagious - we think up to 60% of the Australian population will catch it.

We want Australians to slow the spread. To slow the person-to-person transmission, we need to practise good personal hygiene, self-isolation when unwell, and social distancing.

IF we don't slow the spread, MANY will fall sick at the same time, which would mean MANY simultaneously requiring hospital care. This will FLOOD and OVERWHELM our hospital system.

We have a finite number of ICU beds and ventilators in Australia.

IF the flood of severely ill COVID-19 patients comes all at once, ICUs CANNOT cope.

Doctors will then need to make the difficult decision WHO will need the last ventilator in the hospital, when there are 5 patients needing it. MORE people than necessary will DIE.

This is happening RIGHT NOW in Italy and Iran.

So no, it isn't 'just' a cold/flu.

Yes, most will be mildly and inconveniently unwell. We are not worried for these well patients.

We are worried for the vulnerable - the colleague with the kidney transplant; the grandmother with diabetes; the child with cystic fibrosis.

When we, the well, play our part in the community, we give our vulnerable friends, family members and colleagues a fighting chance to survive this pandemic.

Let’s look out for each other. TOGETHER we can beat this.