Thoughts on China

Containing countries economically?has not changed their regimes or?political cultures, yet it has prevented them from having economic growth and ultimately, power. This has been the case for the Soviet Union, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba.

Engaging in good faith with nations?that exhibit an opening to democratic values has been beneficial to everyone, yet what happens when they revert back to their?deep cultures? Russia, China,?Turkey are such examples, as was Iran, and so may be India.

Would it have been better not to?welcome China into globalization??

Bringing China into world commerce has?helped more than a billion humans?in China and benefited 7 billion economically -?the West supplied itself cheaply and efficiently while?accessing an enormous and growing?consumer market, while China lifted?itself out of poverty and?imported knowledge and technology.?All parties were also culturally?enriched by the experience.

Now what? As China returns to the traditional, authoritarian mandarinate, having?emerged as a true competitor, should?the West try to cut it off, or become more entangled? Isolating China will slow them?down and everyone else too, while?preventing cooperation on key planetary issues such as climate, health and security.?

Continuing to trade with China will potentially allow cooperation on global issues and an adherence to some international values, as well as?further economic prosperity for all, with the end effect of making China more powerful.???

Do you gamble on rational behavior on the part of China, even though the maintenance of state control has historically been more important than the wellbeing of?its people, just as Russia has now demonstrated, or do?you preemptively isolate China at?the cost of economic growth for all and a lower standard of?living for at least a billion humans? Prolonging the relative strength of the West may prevent a direct confrontation.??

So, engage and try to be better,?even though the numbers are against the West (more than 1.4 billion Chinese versus?North America and Europe) or?try a containment strategy where everyone looses and?which may not succeed at stopping China or averting conflict?

By continuing to trade with China the West and China both?benefit, with the result of strengthening China. Should the West cease its economic relation with China, both suffer, stemming the?growth of China.?A dilemma??

At a minimum we can agree on some mutually beneficial rules, red lines (sovereignty,?regional spheres of influence, domestic non-interference) and cooperation on key planetary objectives. Since climate can only be solved by all, and there isn’t an international?organization for it, create a fresh one, founded by China, the USA and Europe. Start small and?focused to allow direct cooperation and communication by the most powerful leaders.?

A less universalist, more nuanced and concentrated approach.

Click Here for More Thoughts on China.