Thoughts on after Covid-19 life

Usually in the past, on the 1st of May people in Greece would commemorate that shops and business are closed and hail 1st of May International Labour Day. This year on the 4th of May we are celebrating those shops (at least some of them) are opening again. Strange times… 

It appears we have come a long way in these last weeks, as it seems like ages ago, in fact just less than 3 months ago, when the Greek PM welcomed Aegean Airlines' 46 brand new airbus carriers, citing: "one of the largest private investments ever undertaken in Greece"… Earlier this week Lufthansa declared it is flying just 1% of passengers, compared to a few months ago and SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) announced it will dismiss 5.000 people.

The changes that have occurred in our society are fundamental and deep. Toilet paper from a low-value commodity item gained glory, while crude oil seems to become (presently) valueless. No Banker, no Analyst ever came close of predicting what has happened, so I am probably the last person on earth who wants to forecast the future, but I want to make some observations and how they can affect our maritime industry, these being: 

1.    Logistics

2.    Real Estate

3.    Technology

1. Logistics

When I say logistics, I am just going to touch briefly on the actual physical last-mile delivery. While we all understand how devastating Covid-19 is for the global cruise industry, for national airlines and even local restaurants, it has proven a no brainer and a great booster for e-shops. A more complex situation has arisen for courier companies that overnight saw their revenue surge but their infrastructure being significantly challenged and their service seriously deteriorating. How is “last mile” deliver going to cater for the possible future workload spikes, will they become much more agile and have part-time / temp employees/ drivers? Will they form creative strategic alliances, i.e. with Taxi drivers/Taxi companies? will they outsource to drones or be absorbed by their biggest clients.? As concerning sea transport, the growth of nationalism, in the need of being self-sufficient as well as 3D printing technologies will power Short-Sea-Shipping. Exciting times are coming…

2. Real Estate

Remote working is now a seamless reality. I recently did an online survey about: “Greek Maritime Professionals working from Home due to Covid-19” and the results (read about them here) where overwhelming, not only is it 100% functional but a percentage of home working combined with office work is defiantly THE way ahead. Not just the winning way ahead, but I believe maybe even the only sustainable way ahead. Four major trends can be seen:

B.    Homeworking: A % of homeworking will become a reality sooner than later. The % will depend on the role but will gradually become the majority.

C.    New Homes: Real estate constructors will develop a new type of house/apartments. In the past, we all saw that a “play-room” often created increased property value and was regarded cool. Now we might see options were an “office room/location” is added and deemed as of importance. These chambers will have specific requirements, broadband, soundproof, view. Proximity to office areas may become less of importance. 

D.    Corporate Offices: Firms, on the other hand, will understand that they don’t need as much office space as in the past. As people will be working on shifts, it could be likely that you will not have more than 40% of your employees at the office, at any given time. Shared and co-office facilities are going to grow. Much smaller offices, much lower expenses, no need for all that expensive furniture, no decoration, savings in maintenance costs, kitchen expenses per employee usage… you get my point

E.     Holiday temporarily offices: as I have again and again witnessed that whilst holding some of my zoom meetings from… my garden in bright sunshine and with real mountains as my background, my colleagues are dialling in from a small apartment in rainy London or cold Scandinavia... Just imagine, working even just seasonally/occasionally, from previously unthought-of locations (Greek islands) that inspire creativity can increase productivity and employee pleasure. With technology, exciting locations are coming closer…  

3. Technology

A positive side effect of Covid-19 has been the instant –authoritarian, I could even say– adoption and use of technology, while Zoom’s share price has skyrocketed its user base has exploded. People realize that work, meetings, negotiations, auctions and even remote vessel surveys are easily done from living rooms, kitchens, and dining rooms! While Covid-19 can be seen as catastrophic for the global economy, it might just be the catalyst for the Digital Transformation and the push the Maritime industry could really use. We are living in times when a fundamental shift is taking place in front of our eyes. The industry moves fast from internet web conferencing to remote vessel monitoring and AI. If you consider I am a dreamer and remote monitoring is too far away, consider that it is estimated it can offer savings of at least 30%. If you think I am a fantasist and AI is too far fetch keep in mind that today in the finance/investment sector AI is the largest buyer of shares globally. One of the finest Economists, Maritime Director and Professor of our times; Martin Stopford, nearly said in a recent online marathon interview, that the next generation of Shipowners may well be… software AI start-ups. Compare this: while Covid-19 has so far killed 200.000 people, car traffic accidents account for 1.250.00 deaths. Each year. According to the leading Israeli historian, bestseller author and professor: Yuval Harari: “more than 90% of these accidents are caused by very human errors: somebody drinking alcohol, texting, falling asleep or simple daydreaming instead of paying attention to the road. Self-driving vehicles will never do any of these things. Though they suffer from their own problems and limitations, and though some accidents are inevitable, replacing all human drivers by computers is expected to reduce deaths and injuries on the road by about 90%. In other words, switching to autonomous vehicles is likely to save the lives of one million people every year.” In shipping, we have 4.000 collisions every year with a titanic cost in terms of life, money and environment. The changes and benefits that big data and AI are bringing to the maritime sector now are colossal compared to what Covid-19 has brought to humanity over the past 3 months. The exciting AI technology is already here.