The Third Plenum gathers to decide China's economic path - what to expect

The Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene in Beijing from July 15-18. The meeting will set the course for economic policy over the next five to ten years and define key parameters for China's “socialist modernization”, which is scheduled to be completed by 2035.

The Third Plenum will also become a cornerstone of the legacy of CCP General Secretary and State President Xi Jinping, says MERICS Lead Analyst Nis Grunberg in this MERICS China Essentials focus issue on the Third Plenum. “When analyzing the meeting’s decisions, foreign observers will have to view terms like ‘reform’ through Beijing’s conceptual lens,” he says. Above all, the Third Plenum will reaffirm the strategic goals and institutional features of Xi's party state: technological self-sufficiency, national security, centralized rule by an all-dominant CCP focused intently on discipline and loyalty.

Jeroen Groenewegen-Lau , Head of Program Science, Technology and Innovation at MERICS, expects the Third Plenum to emphasize the urgency of the CCP's “new-style whole of nation system” to achieve high-tech “socialist modernization” by 2035. “In Xi’s worldview, science and technology are the tide that lifts all boats. The Third Plenum of this Central Committee will argue for collective effort and sacrificing short-term prosperity in order to achieve technological sovereignty and industrial upgrading.”

Next week’s Third Plenum is again likely to stress the CCP’s commitment to market forces alongside the hand of the state – but Western observers will know not to misjudge this commitment, says MERICS Lead Analyst Jacob Gunter . The Third Plenum will likely try to be many things to many people. “The key will be to see what goals CCP cadres and state officials actually pursue in the light of signals from Xi,” says Gunter.

The CCP’s Central Committee will likely devote a small but eye-catching part of its deliberations to the People’s Liberation Army and the need to accelerate reform, says MERICS Lead Analyst Helena Legarda Herranz . Almost ten years after Xi Jinping launched his PLA reform, major issues remain. The CCP only recently purged members of the military’s top rank for corruption. “What the Third Plenum communicates about the PLA will signal the extent to which Xi is dissatisfied with the current state of the military,” says Legarda.

You can read our special issue of MERICS China Essentials on the Third Plenum on our website.