The Third Domino To Fall

Germany In Recession

Germany, Europe's largest economy, hits recession as inflation hits consumers [ABC]

Germany is not the global manufacturing powerhouse that it used to be, but this sends a strong message to the rest of the EU, who depend on Germany for associated employment, supplies etc

USD vs US Rates

Rates and USD 100% in sync

But which one is leading. This week they're following each other so it becomes self-sustaining. 10 year yields up 35 basis points in 2 weeks against the backdrop of a potential FED pause? Doesn't make sense. Bank crisis or debt ceiling that's old news. Something happening here.

Mixed US Inflation Supports Another Hike

Core Annual Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is the FED preferred prices-paid metric.. Trouble is, it's not going down?

In Case You Missed It

Debt Ceiling Old News

Biden, top Republican say deal on debt ceiling very close

Global Liquidity

Liquidity is being sucked out of the global economy at the fastest rate since the great depression. And the chart of US M2 above shows that there is still a great deal of QT to be done to get back to the monetary base of (even) pre-Covid.

Powell On The Air

Fed's Powell warns banking crisis could tighten lending, slow US economy

Fed Minutes from policy meeting 2-3 May 2023

US Credit Rating Watch

Fitch Considers U.S. Rating Downgrade as Debt Talks Drag

UK CPI Shocks Markets (and BOE Governor)

Australia

Australia retail sales supports weak consumer sentiment data.

‘Fully tax-deductible’: Andrews tax rise hits federal budget

Electricity Price Rises by up to 25% QLD VIC NSW SA

MPs told to expect more rate rises (by RBA Governor)

Australian supermarket food prices have increased by a new peak of nearly 10 per cent over the past 12 months, outpacing annual inflation as the cost of living continues to rise.

Coles and Woolworths food prices rise by 9.6 per cent in past year, outpacing?inflation rate

Australian PMIs show strength

AUD / USD Trade Update

Short 0.7000

Short 0.7100

Short 0.6775

Stop 0.6825

Positive carry

The triple top holding just above 0.6800 forced support to crumble and we closed below the 0.6600 fib (23% retracement of 0.8000 to 0.6175 move).

Expect a revisit to the scene of the crime at 0.6575 and move down to 0.6180. Too early to move the stop down yet.

This Week's Economic Indicators [London time]

Key Economic Releases:?https://suberia.capital/economic-indicators-by-country

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