Thinking Unthinkable is the key for countering COVID-19

In May 2020 – I attempted to analyses dynamics of COVID-19 situation in India and reached to some figures on the probable number of +ve cases needing hospital admission and a percentage of hospitalized COVID patients who would need to be intubate and put on ventilator. Output of my analysis was eye opening and scary too! Based on my assumptions estimated need for hospital beds and ventilators for ten most COVID-19 affected states i.e. Maharashtra: 2.8 million and 56 thousand; Tamil Nadu: 1.8 million and 36 thousand; Delhi: 0.4 million and 8.5 thousand; Gujarat: 1.5 million and 30 thousand; Rajasthan: 1.7 million and 34 thousand; MP: 1.8 million and 36 thousand; UP: 5 million and 100 thousand; West Bengal: 2.3 million and 46 thousand; Bihar: 2.6 million and 52 thousand respectively (see for details in the paper).

On 20th May 2020 - I uploaded this paper on one of the popular website for sharing academic inputs on various subjects i.e. academia.edu. This paper on - COVID-19 in India: Predictions, Projections and Preparations and available at link below -https://www.academia.edu/43236596/COVID_19_in_India_Predictions_Projections_and_Preparations

As per website the paper was viewed by 35 viewers but it looks none of them was a decision maker or from disaster management authority. It pains me and I cry when I look at people suffering because of paucity of health resources across almost all States. Once again disaster managers in the Government failed to “think unthinkable” which the key for “preparedness”. I salute health workers for their dedication and devotion but in most of the cases I see a situation of “helplessness” in majority of health care facilities. I do not blame health worker for their unpreparedness and attribute this to decision makers and disaster managers.