Thinking Through Political Strategy for Brexit as of End-April/May 2019

Sometimes it is good just to stop and think about what is right and wrong in public life and what one might do with one's very limited power. This basically comes down to sticking a cross on a bit of paper every now and then, encouraging those who put their heads above the parapet and a lot of shouting into the abyss (as well as perhaps a bit of consumer choice-making). Without office, we have limited power.

You have to start by knowing what you want and what your priorities are, In my case, it is quite simply to have June 2016 respected and have us leave the European Union in full as soon as possible (which is not a need met by a Customs Union and May's nonsense) and then work towards a much fairer and more secure Britain that is prosperous, tolerant and averse to armed conflict - and, preferably, puts the cultural liberals firmly in their place.

That's the dream. Now let's look at the political reality. Change UK is polling a derisory 4% for a General Election in the Opinium poll in yesterday's Independent - the same level as UKIP which has crashed in the face of The Brexit Party challenge and the Green Party which seems to have lost its momentum after Extinction Rebellion (it seems the Thunberg effect only applies to the London elite). The Euro-Elections are little more than a pseudo-referendum on Brexit with only three players who really matter - Labour (widely accepted to be the Remain Party despite its weasel words designed to keep its Leave voters on board), the Tories (a soft Brexit that is no Brexit) and the Brexit Party which is what it says on the tin. Put the regional and petty nationalist parties aside, that is some 70% of the vote playing a game for dominance over the three basic models for the future - a Second Referendum (to all intents and purposes), May's shoddy deal (which even if it passes will be shredded by the other two in power) and a full Brexit. It seems May's shoddy deal is coming out worst.

Then you turn to General Election voting and a populist party that did not exist only a few weeks ago (think about that!) and has scarcely started on the Labour Leave vote is already at 17%, ready to whittle away the Tories just as it has shredded UKIP. Change UK is thus quite simply irrelevant - a middle class playing at power. The good bet is Labour and the Brexit Party slugging it out now for a decade, with the Tories playing a political role similar to that of the now equally irrelevant Liberal Democrats. Another good bet - a weak middle class and public sector Labour liberal-pseudosocialist coalition in office eventually losing power under the attritional warfare of a Brexit-Tory coalition with a working and lower middle class base. Yep, that's what I would put my money on.

A decade of political warfare and we quit the EU anyway at the end of it, for you should not underestimate the numbers of Labour Leave voters who will loan their votes to Farage on May 23rd and then make those votes permanent if Farage adopts a welfarist, culturally conservative and mildly anti-capitalist strategist and if Labour persists in being a liberal middle class Remainer Party. This is implicit in the conclusions of Eatwell and Goodwin's 'National Populism' (2018) where they postulate the emergence of something they call national populism-lite as democratic vote winner. This could have been the role of the Tory Party under a politician like Johnson. The determination of the Tory Party to commit suicide is fascinating in this context. Farage has stolen BoJo and JRM's thunder and decades of business control over a mass lower middle class vote has been thrown to the winds. It may never come back unless Farage is an utter fool. So far, he does not seem to be ...

In other words, the niche in politics created by the maturation of national populism has not been taken by the dominant centre-right party (which is the trajectory in parts of Europe) but by an incomer under a First Past the Post system where the very real risk for the Tories is that they could be wholy displaced by the incomer and turned into a centee-right variant of the centre-left Liberal Democrats. It may never happen but it could happen and Tories seem to be startlingly complacent about the possibility. Their rivals, Labour, may eventually end up even more secure as the non-socialist liberal home for middle class liberals. In this context, here are only three reasonable options for someone who thinks like me (others are welcome to undertake the same exercise as I have done and outline their positions):-

1. To support the Brexit Party without illusions as a route to a Brexit Parliament or as the main vehicle for the Leave vote in a Second Referendum and for the carrying on of the struggle in case we fail in both war aims.

2. To support the Social Democratic Party less directly as a possible vehicle for Left Brexit in the event that the Brexit Party moves too far to the Right on victory (which is more likely than not).

3. To be open to the possibility of an alternative libertarian Left Brexit political party or movement emerging either out of the Brexit Party or independently - this, however, is not a short term play and looks unlikely at this point in history.

The following options appear to be redundant:

A: The Labour Party. Its socialism is weak and transient and, as we have noted, it is set to be the primary vehicle for Remain voters and to act as block to a purposeful Brexit. It is not going to be destroyed and it may be the next government but it is now the enemy.

B: UKIP which has proved itself totally inept at adaptation to new conditions over the last three years. It won't disappear but its purpose becomes as a holding operation for all the hard cases that permit the Brexit Party to avoid the label of being Far Right.

C: The Tory Party (insofar as the primary concern is Brexit) unless it removes the Prime Minister, a Leadership struggle results in a No Deal Brexit and the Party can form a No Deal Government. This looks unlikely. In fact, it looks equally likely, as we have noted, that the Party could be displaced as one of the two natural parties of Government within a few years by the Brexit Party.

Both of the two traditional parties of State have challenged the democratic mandate of June 2016 and are made up of elites seeking to undermine it. This does not matter for Labour if it can move back to the centre and dump its flirtation with Socialism under Corbyn. We have gone well beyond Brexit now towards a will to challenge a failed elite across a much broader front. The Labour Euro-Socialist elite is probably the last refuge of these scoundrels, relying on the dogsbody tribal carthorses of the organised Labour Movement to give it some 'bottom'. The Right challenge to the establishment that existed prior to 2016 [UKIP] has collapsed to all intents and purposes and the Left challenge refuses to create itself so we seem to have ended up with a radical Centrist one in the Brexit Party. in this context, the Tories are now incredibly vulnerable as the Establishment that failed to implement Brexit.

The game plan is simple as far as the short term is concerned. One should manage the next stage in small steps, allowing others to let their enthusiasms run ahead of themselves and their fears limit them and think strategically while acting tactically.

1. The first commitment is to a firm tactical loan vote to the Brexit Party on May 23rd (the local elections are simply an opportunity to withdraw one's vote entirely from a bankrupt system or seeking out independents and outliers to help destabilise it). If the Brexit Party can put forward a proposal for the achievement of Brexit at the next General Election and does not put forward proposals that work against fairness after that Election, then one should be minded to support it where there is not a No Deal incumbent MP in place or a Social Democrat or Left Brexit (or even UKIP) candidate in a better position to win the seat.

2. The second commitment must be to get the Brexit Left to put up or shut up on the primacy of Brexit. At the moment, they are faffing around with futile strategies of 'Revolutionary Abstentionism' or trying (equally futilely) to be heard inside the Labour Party. We are getting to the point where they are going to have to make some hard choices - either to fold into becoming the whining adjuncts of our main Remainer Party on the supremely futile chance of socialism in our time under liberalism or they are going to have to have a strategy of resistance. Such a strategy might involve working with the Brexit Party in anticipation of the next General Election, committing to the Social Democratic Party or committing to an independent unified and intelligent Brexit Left Party. I will support any of these options so long as some choice is being made by the intelligent bulk of the Leasve Left but I will not support a Left that becomes the pusillanimous agent of European neo-liberalism under the dubious utopian belief that somehow the monster can be tamed.

So this is where we are. The rise of the Brexit Party has been remarkable but there is no room for complacency. 17.4m voters are still unrepresented on this issue in national politics and the origins of the Party on the democratic Right suggests that many of those on the democratic Left may remain unrepresented after Brexit if the Brexit Left does not show some spine.

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