Thinking Outside the Binary Box: How to Create Options When None Seem to Exist

Life often seems to present us with either-or choices. Stay or go. Risk or safety. Present comfort or future security. At first glance, these are mutually exclusive. Can either have this or that?

From time to time, I grapple with one of these dilemmas.

I left my home in Pakistan for a place where gleaming towers rise from the desert sands. It's a modern oasis of opportunity, offering what some call golden handcuffs. The pay is great, but there's a catch - it doesn't come with long-term security.

So, I get stuck with the question: Do I keep earning good money here and figure out the future later? Or do I move somewhere else that might offer more stability down the road? It's not an easy choice. If I move, I might gain security, but at what cost? Will I earn as much? Will my quality of life be the same? The second and third order consequences, the opportunity costs are the unknown unknowns and cripple you from making a decision.

This paralysis in decision-making is rooted in the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle suggests that we should err on the side of caution when we're facing potential harm that's large or irreversible. It's especially relevant when dealing with complex systems , where the full consequences of our actions are hard to predict. The potential downsides of making the wrong choice - whether staying or leaving - loom large. What if I leave and it turns out to be a mistake? What if I stay and miss out on better opportunities elsewhere? The fear of these unknown consequences can be paralyzing.

While Taleb discusses this principle in the context of public policy and global risks, it's also applicable to personal decisions, especially those with far-reaching consequences.

The Fragility of Binary Thinking

This paralysis in decision-making, stemming from binary options and unknown consequences, is not just frustrating. It's a symptom of a fragile decision-making process. In his book "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder," Nassim Taleb argues that this kind of binary thinking often leads to vulnerability.

Clinging to the binary choice of “stay or go” represents a fragile approach. It assumes that there are only two possible outcomes, leaving you vulnerable to unforeseen circumstances and missed opportunities.

This fragility arises because binary thinking limits our options and our ability to adapt. When we force complex decisions into an either-or framework, we lose the nuance and flexibility that could help us navigate uncertainty . We become brittle, easily broken by unexpected events or changes in circumstances.

Moreover, binary thinking often leads to a false sense of security . We might believe that by choosing one of two options, we've solved the problem. But in a complex world, such simplistic solutions are rarely adequate. They don't account for the myriad of factors and potential outcomes that could affect our decision.

Simplicity is not always equivalent to anti-fragility; it is sometimes an indication of fragility.

The simplicity of a binary choice might seem appealing, but it often masks the true complexity of the situation, leaving us ill-prepared for the future.

Thinking Beyond Binary Thinking

When we're faced with tough decisions, it's easy to fall into the trap of binary thinking. Stay or go? Risk or safety? Present comfort or future security? These either-or choices can feel like the only options available. But is that really the case?

The reality is, there's almost always another way. The key is to push ourselves to find it. By forcing ourselves to come up with at least one more option, we not only relieve the pressure of an either-or decision but also open up new possibilities we might not have considered.

Think about it. When we limit ourselves to two choices, we're essentially putting on blinders. We miss out on creative solutions that could be hiding just outside our field of vision. It's like trying to solve a puzzle with half the pieces missing. Sure, you might stumble upon the right answer, but you're making it a lot harder on yourself.

Taleb argues that having options is crucial for navigating an uncertain world. It's not just about making better decisions; it's about building resilience into our decision-making process.

…power of optionality as an alternative way of doing things, opportunistically, with some large edge coming from asymmetry with large benefits and benign harm. It is a way—the only way—to domesticate uncertainty, to work rationally without understanding the future…

By expanding our options, we're doing more than just increasing our chances of making a good choice. We're actually changing the game. We're moving from a fragile position to a more robust one, where we're vulnerable to unexpected changes.

But here's the catch - developing this optionality isn't always easy. It requires us to challenge our assumptions and think creatively. It means resisting the comfortable, passive approach of accepting the options presented to us and instead doing the hard work of digging deeper into the problem.

The question is, how do we break free from binary thinking and develop more options in our decision making?

Building Options

Skill five in Decision by Design teaches us how to add more options and introduces four tools to help us get out of binary thinking:

Vanishing Options

Imagine you're stuck between two choices. Now, pretend one of those choices suddenly vanishes. What would you do?

Chip and Dan Heath originally introduced the idea in their book, Decisive.

When people imagine that they cannot have an option, they are forced to move their mental spotlight elsewhere—really move it—often for the first time in a long while.

Removing options can do you a favor because it makes you notice that you’re stuck on one small patch of a wide landscape.

Here's how it works: Let's say you're thinking about changing careers. You're torn between staying in your current job or quitting to start your own business. Try this:

First, imagine you can't quit your job. It's not an option. What would you do to make your current situation better? Maybe you'd talk to your boss about new responsibilities. Or you might start a side project within the company. You might even negotiate for more flexible hours.

Now flip it. Imagine you have to leave your job. What steps would you take? You might reach out to your network for opportunities. Or you could start freelancing in your field to build a client base.

This technique forces you to think beyond the obvious and pushes you to find solutions you might have overlooked.

How to use it in your personal life: Let's say you're trying to decide whether to keep your car or switch to public transportation. First, imagine you have to keep your car. What could you do to make it more cost-effective? Maybe you could start carpooling, or use it for a side gig like food delivery.

Now, imagine you have to give up your car. How would you adapt? You might research the best public transit routes, consider a bicycle for short trips, or look into car-sharing services for occasional needs.

This exercise might lead you to a new solution, like keeping your car but using it less frequently, or selling your car but keeping a membership in a car-sharing service for occasional use.

How to use it at work: If you're considering whether to take on a new project, first imagine you have to say no. How would you manage your current workload better? Then, imagine you have to say yes. How would you reorganize your time to make it work?

The point isn't to actually eliminate options. It's to push your brain to think creatively. Often, you'll find a middle ground or a completely new solution you hadn't considered before.

Remember, the goal is to expand your options, not limit them. By pretending to limit your choices, you often end up creating more.

This AND That

Often, we think we have to choose between two options. But what if we could have both?

In Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath refer to this as Multitracking, i.e. considering several options simultaneously.

Psychologists have identified two contrasting mindsets that affect our motivation and our receptiveness to new opportunities: a ‘prevention focus,’ which orients us toward avoiding negative outcomes, and a ‘promotion focus,’ which orients us toward pursuing positive outcomes.

Here's how it works: Instead of asking "Should I do this or that?", ask "How can I do this and that?"

Let's say you're trying to decide between advancing your career and spending more time with your family. Instead of seeing these as mutually exclusive, think about how you can do both.

You might negotiate a four-day work week, allowing you to focus intensely on work for four days and have a three-day weekend with family. Or you could look for a job that allows remote work, cutting out commute time and giving you more flexibility.

How to use it in your personal life: Say you want to get in shape, but you also want to spend more time with friends. Instead of choosing one or the other, think about how you can combine them. You could start a workout group with friends, join a recreational sports league together, or make your catch-up sessions walking meetups instead of sitting in a café.

How to use it at work: If you're torn between focusing on your current role and developing new skills, consider how you can do both. You might take on a project that stretches your abilities while still contributing to your main responsibilities. Or you could propose cross-training with another department, allowing you to learn new skills while still performing your current job.

The key is to stop thinking in terms of "either/or" and start thinking "both/and". This approach often leads to creative solutions that give you the best of both worlds.

Remember, it's not always possible to have everything. But by looking for ways to combine options, you often end up with better solutions than if you had simply chosen one or the other.

Explore the Opportunity Cost

When we make decisions, we often focus on what we'll gain. But it's just as important to consider what we're giving up. That's what we call the opportunity cost .

Here's how it works: Ask yourself, "What am I giving up if I choose this?"

Let's say you're deciding between two job offers. One pays more but requires a long commute, while the other pays less but is close to home.

Don't just compare salaries. Think about what you're giving up with each choice. With the high-paying job, you might be giving up time with family or for hobbies. With the nearby job, you might be giving up career advancement opportunities or the ability to save more money.

How to use it in your personal life: Imagine you're deciding whether to buy a bigger house. Sure, you'd gain more space. But what would you be giving up? Maybe it's the ability to travel as much, or the convenience of your current location. Maybe it's the time you'd spend maintaining a larger property.

How to use it at work: If you're considering taking on a new project, think about what you'd have to give up. Would it mean less time for your core responsibilities? Would you have to work longer hours, giving up personal time? Or would turning it down mean missing out on a chance to learn new skills?

By exploring the opportunity cost, you often discover hidden factors that influence your decision. You might realize that what you're giving up is actually more valuable than what you'd gain.

This technique helps you make more balanced decisions. It forces you to look at the full picture, not just the obvious benefits. And sometimes, it leads you to create new options that minimize what you have to give up.

Remember, every choice has a cost. By understanding these costs, you can make decisions that truly align with what's most important to you.

Gather More Information

Sometimes, the best option is to wait and learn more before making a decision. This technique is about resisting the urge to choose immediately and instead taking time to collect additional information.

Here's how it works: When faced with a decision, ask yourself, "What information would help me make a better choice?" Then, go out and get that information.

Let's say you're considering a career change. Instead of jumping in or dismissing the idea, take time to learn more. You could shadow someone in the new field, take a relevant course, or conduct informational interviews.

How to use it in your personal life: Imagine you're thinking about moving to a new city. Before deciding, you could visit the city for an extended period, talk to locals, research job markets, and look into the cost of living. This information might reveal options you hadn't considered, like moving to a nearby suburb instead of the city center.

How to use it at work: If you're unsure about adopting a new technology for your team, gather more information. Run a small pilot project, talk to other companies who've used it, or bring in an expert for a consultation. This extra knowledge might lead you to a better decision or reveal a third option you hadn't considered.

The key is to identify what information would be most valuable in making your decision. What would change your mind? What would make you more confident in your choice?

Remember, while gathering information, you're also buying time. This can be valuable in itself, allowing circumstances to change or new options to emerge.

This technique helps you avoid rushed decisions based on limited information. It often leads to better choices and can even reveal new options you hadn't initially considered.

The trick is balancing the need for more information with the need to make a timely decision. Don't fall into analysis paralysis, but don't rush if you don't have to.

Concluding Thoughts

When faced with a decision, our brains naturally gravitate towards binary choices. It's comfortable, it's quick, and it feels decisive. But as we've seen, this approach can lead to fragility and missed opportunities.

The key is to make it a habit to pause and ask, "What else could I do?" You don't need to come up with a dozen alternatives. Just one or two solid options beyond the obvious can make a world of difference.

Remember, the goal isn't to complicate your life with endless choices. It's about expanding your perspective just enough to see possibilities you might have missed. This small shift in thinking can transform your decision-making from fragile to robust, and sometimes even antifragile.

By consistently applying these techniques - vanishing options, this AND that, exploring opportunity costs, and gathering more information - you're not just making better decisions. You're building a mindset that thrives in uncertainty.

So the next time you find yourself stuck between a rock and a hard place, take a breath and challenge yourself: What's your third option? It might just be the one that changes everything.

The world rarely presents us with true either/or situations. It's up to us to see - and create - the alternatives. Are you ready to look beyond the binary?

References:

• Decision by Design ?from Farnam Street
• Antifragile by Nassim Taleb
• Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath