Thinking (Fast and Slow) About Winning Proposals

I remember I was in two minds about deciding whether to buy Daniel Kahneman's book: Thinking, Fast and Slow. Which was ironic considering this is a book about having two minds and how that affects our decision making.

I bought it slow but read it fast because it is utterly fascinating.

Based on his Nobel Prize-winning work with Amos Tversky, his insights on how we think, make decisions, and are influenced by unconscious factors hold valuable lessons for anyone in the business of influence and persuasion.

Sadly, Professor Kahneman passed away last week at the age of 90. That news encouraged me to dig out my copy of the book and start flicking through it, fast. Then I made a coffee and started reading again, more slowly.

If you haven't yet read it

Firstly, you definitely should. But, assuming you haven't time right now, here's a brief explainer. The basic premise is that our minds operate using two distinct systems: imaginatively named System 1 and System 2.

• System 1 is quick, instinctive, and relies heavily on past experiences and emotions. Think of it as the autopilot of the mind.
• System 2 is the slow, deliberate thinker. It analyses information, weighs options, and makes rational decisions. This is how we like to think we make decisions.

For me, there are striking similarities with the Chimp and Human analogy in Steve Peter's The Chimp Paradox. The Chimp (System 1) is fast, strong, and will absolutely hijack our decision making if it feels threatened. The Human (System 2) is slower, more thoughtful, and capable of logical reasoning.

Understanding these two modes of thinking is critical for bid and proposal professionals. We're never writing for one evaluator; there are always two systems. Our proposals need to win over System 1 with a compelling story, strong visuals, and easy-to-understand language. However, we must also satisfy the logical needs of System 2 with clear benefits, detailed data, and strong evidence.

The two minds of your evaluator

Our minds and the minds of our evaluators, are shaped by these two systems making us far less rational than we think we are. Understanding some of the most common irrationality and unconscious biases can help us structure our proposals more persuasively:

• Anchoring Bias: The first piece of information offered has a disproportionately strong influence on judgment. It's important to make a strong first impression with our proposals, highlight value, and set the tone for the rest of the evaluation.
• Framing Effect: It's not just what we say, but how we say it. People are risk-averse when choices are presented as losses, but become bolder when we see the gains. When we frame our proposal solutions as gains – what the client stands to achieve by partnering with us – we showcase how our solutions help the client win, not just avoid problems.
• Overconfidence Bias: It's easy to fall prey to overestimating our own abilities and underestimating task complexity. This is why (and we all know this) reviews are so important. Humans and Chimps are terrible at marking their own homework!
• Confirmation Bias: We favour information that agrees with our existing beliefs. What works for us will not necessarily be compelling to our evaluator but we can research their unique challenges, tailor our proposal to address them directly, and anticipate their possible objections.
• Availability Bias: We assess likelihood based on how readily something comes to mind. Our past success stories, especially those relevant to the client's situation, are powerful evidence of our competence and should be readily available throughout our proposals.

The clients we seek to win over are human. They think, decide, and react influenced by the same forces Kahneman has unraveled. The question is, will you think fast and assume you know the mind of your evaluator or will you think more slowly and uncover the rich tapestry of insight into human decision-making? Your future bid strategies and persuasive proposals depend on your decision.