Thinking Backwards is the Way Forward

A Contrarian's Guide to Strategic Planning

Let me guess, your organization is currently 'reimagining' its strategy. (Aren't we all?)

But here's the inconvenient truth...while everyone's busy reimagining their strategies, nobody's reimagining how they think about strategy.

To me...it's kinda like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The Comfortable Delusion of From Here to There

You know the drill - you're probably doing it right now.

Gather the leadership team, assess current capabilities, identify market trends, and plot a course forward.

It's comforting, familiar, and nothing more than short-term theater - dressing up 'more of the same' as innovation while calling it transformation. It's also exactly what every disrupted company was doing while their industry changed around them, too busy optimizing today to see tomorrow coming.

You could call it, improving your way to irrelevance.

This "From Here to There" thinking goes something like this:

• Here's our current market position and capabilities
• Here's how we'll grow our existing revenue streams
• Here's how we'll optimize our current operations
• Here's how we'll expand what's already working
• Here's how we'll do more of everything (but better!)
• Here's how we'll improve our customer relationships
• Here's how we'll increase our market share
• Here's how we'll execute faster than before
• And finally, here's our three-year plan to achieve all this... as if the world will wait for us

Notice something absurd here?

It's like packing your car, planning your rest stops, calculating your fuel consumption, and creating a detailed driving schedule... without actually deciding where you're going.

It's all preparation for a journey to "somewhere better than here."

Here's the fundamental flaw...

These strategies are just elaborate instruction manuals for a road trip to nowhere in particular. They're obsessed with HOW we'll travel but vague about WHERE we're actually headed.

"More revenue,"

"More market share,"

"More efficiency"

More of what? For what purpose? Toward what end?

Why Backwards is Actually Forward

'There to Here' thinking flips this on its head. It starts with a clear, non-negotiable destination - WHAT MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED - and acknowledges that while the path will evolve, at least we know where we're going. It's the difference between "let's drive more efficiently" and "we need to reach that mountain - now let's figure out how to get there."

Let me share two simple examples that will make you question everything you think you know about strategic planning.

Ever wonder how Google Maps figures out the best route to your destination?

You might assume it starts from your location and works its way forward - just like traditional strategy. But here's the plot twist: the algorithm actually works backward from your destination. Even our navigation tools know that the clearest path emerges when you start from where you want to be.

Still not convinced?

Try this...

Imagine a maze with five entrances and only one exit.

Starting from any entrance means exploring countless dead ends, backtracking, and basically hoping you'll stumble upon the right path. But start from the exit and work backward - suddenly the path becomes crystal clear.

No wasted energy, no false starts, no dead ends.

Yes, I can see you having that "aha" moment. Hold onto it...it gets better.

This is exactly what's wrong with traditional "From Here to There" strategic thinking.

When you start from 'here,' you're just exploring every possible path forward, most of which lead nowhere. But when you start from 'there' - your desired future state - and work backward, you're tracing the only path that matters: the one that leads to your goal.

Yet most organizations are still stumbling through the maze from the wrong end, wondering why they keep hitting walls.

From There to Here: The Art of Strategic Time Travel

This isn't about flipping the script, it's about writing an entirely new one.

"From There to Here" thinking starts with one bold question:

What business would make your current one irrelevant?

Now, before you dismiss this as another consultant's fancy framework, let me ask you:

Why aren't you building that business?

Then it works backwards:

Define the Future That Must Be

• Not what could be or might be - what MUST be
• The future where your current business model is obsolete
• The world your customers will demand, not just accept

Design That Business

• Not a better version of today's business
• The one that doesn't exist yet
• The one you'd build if you were starting fresh

Work Backwards to Today by Defining What MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED

• What kind of team must we become?
• What must our brand represent?
• What client relationships must we have?
• What financial model must we create?
• What systems must be in place?
• What network and partnerships must exist?

See the shift?

These aren't 'nice to haves' or 'improvements' - these are non-negotiable transformations. HOW and WHEN are arbitrary, but WHAT must be accomplished is mandatory.

Think of these as your non-negotiable future states.

They're not goals to work toward, they're states that must exist for your future business to exist.

The path to get there will evolve, but the destination is fixed.

The Uncomfortable Truth

In a world where disruption is the only constant, thinking forwards is actually moving backwards. The organizations that will thrive aren't the ones getting better at what they do - they're the ones getting better at what they don't do yet.

Consider this:

• Amazon didn't become Amazon by being a better bookstore
• Tesla didn't succeed by building a better combustion engine
• Apple didn't transform music by making a better CD player

They all started with "there" and worked back to "here."

Making the Leap

So, how do you start thinking backwards? To start defining what MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED, begin with these questions:

1. What business would make your current model irrelevant?
2. What customer needs aren't even articulated yet?
3. What capabilities do you need that don't exist in your industry?
4. What would you do if you had to put yourself out of business?

If these questions make you uncomfortable, good. They should.

Comfort is the enemy of innovation.

The Bottom Line

In an age of unprecedented change, the traditional approach to strategy is like following a fixed set of turn-by-turn directions through constantly shifting terrain. The future doesn't care about your detailed instructions, your current route, or your perfectly planned schedule.

Think back to our Google Maps analogy.

What makes it so effective isn't just that it knows the destination, it's that it continuously adapts the route based on what's happening in real-time.

Traffic ahead? It offers an alternative.

Road closure? It recalculates.

Faster route becomes available?

It gives you the option.

But here's the key...none of these adaptations would be possible without first knowing the destination. Without that clear "must reach" point, you're just reacting to events as they happen, making decisions based on what's already occurred rather than what needs to be accomplished.

A three-year roadmap works the same way. The destination - what must be accomplished - remains fixed. But the path to get there needs to be as adaptive as a GPS in rush hour. The difference?

You're responding to changes with purpose, not just reacting to them in panic.

Now you see why traditional strategic planning fails?

It's trying to pre-program every turn in a world that's constantly rerouting.

The only way forward is to start with the future and work backwards.

And if anyone tells you this approach is too risky, remind them of the riskiest strategy of all...

Thinking you can predict the future by extrapolating from the past.

"Thinking backwards is the way forward." - a Clarism

Remember that pit in your stomach when you read about your industry's latest disruption?

That wasn't fear of change. It was recognition. It was the realization that while you were busy perfecting yesterday, someone else was building tomorrow.

So here's your choice...

Keep crafting detailed instructions for a journey to nowhere in particular, or start with tomorrow and work your way back to today.

Because in a world changing at warp speed, the biggest risk isn't disruption...it's thinking your carefully plotted path forward will lead anywhere but backwards.

The next time you're in a strategic planning session, ask yourself this:

Are we actually designing our future, or just building a better version of our past?

Finally, if that question made you uncomfortable, good.

It should.

Because somewhere out there, someone is already building the business that will make yours irrelevant.

The only question is...why isn't it you?

Dave Clare

CEO & Founder, Circle Leadership

It's time to lead different.

Together we can #EvolveTheWorldOfWork

If you want a FREE "World of Work" call to discuss reimagining how you think about strategy, please find a time in my calendar here:

https://calendly.com/circleleadership/wowcall