Think Tank 2018: plus ?a change, plus c’est la même chose
Just over a week ago the curtain came down on our seventeenth Think Tank event in London. We were delighted to be joined by a hundred or so delegates, speakers and colleagues representing six of the world’s seven continents. As well as a vital source of insight and information, I like to use the time during the conference to reflect on the general themes that arise during the formal and informal sessions. The event afforded the opportunity to speak to a large number of our partners and strategy providers at the same time and this provided a unique global temperature test regarding the challenges faced by market participants of all types.
During the investment sessions I was taken by how many times the conversation (whether led by the speakers themselves or by questions from delegates) led back to concerns around the timing of the next global recession. This is a notoriously difficult feat, as Nobel Prize winning Economist Paul Samuelson noted in 1966: “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions”. Nevertheless it is reflective of a circumspect mood amongst market participants. This is, perhaps, to be expected given we are now ten years into an equity market bull run and while developed economies do not look particularly unstable, they risk being buffeted by the impending first net reduction in global liquidity from Central Banks post the financial crisis. Uncertainty generally brings with it volatility and as Glyn Owen, our Investment Director concluded: “Stay invested, be prepared to ride out the bumps and avoid the temptation to time the next recession”. We believe our Outcome Based Investment philosophy and proven process will insulate clients from the worst of the market’s excesses whilst providing access to upside opportunities.
The other major area of uncertainty relates more directly to advisers’ business models. It is clear that from Jakarta to Johannesburg, Mexico City to Manchester, the advice environment is a difficult one. This is for a number of reasons, not least because in a large number of jurisdictions the regulatory challenges faced by advisory businesses are increasing. This combined with increased threats from low touch sources of ‘advice’ such as Robo or guided architecture models, time poor clients and continuing fee pressures mean that for a firm to prosper it must be nimble and intelligent in their approach to these challenges. It is interesting to note that these pressures are, in the main, universal in nature and as a result we believe we at Momentum, with our unique expertise of working with advisers across the globe, are perfectly placed to work with our adviser base to identify and implement ways of work and investment portfolios that are a match for the multitude of challenges that advisers face. We believe that an Outcome Based Investment philosophy and process makes perfect sense given these different challenges. Our approach puts the investment needs of clients first and our open approach and service paradigm provides a wealth of information that enables clients and advisers to stay the course.
We believe that by simplifying the investment element of the advice process we help advisers to better serve their clients and to build longevity into relationships and business plans. I know that some of the delegates who have come to every single one of our Think Tank events will testify to this.
James Klempster, CFA