Think Systemically–Escape the Fa?ade of Knowability.

What is systemic thinking? Lets not be confused – I don’t mean to think systematically – a linear, step my step process. Rather thinking systemically is to view things through the lens of systems.  Recognize the sum of the individual parts is greater than the individual pieces. When we look to the social or human world we only see “tips of icebergs” with much hidden beneath the surface. We don’t see much of what drives observable behavior. Some can be discovered – some is undiscoverable. I sometimes describe it as the white space between the dots. What is beneath the surface and how is it driving observable system behavior? How might it be reinforcing continuation of the same, a possible decay, or perhaps a disruptive change we have not considered? All are possible. The world is non-linear and may unfold before us in very unexpected ways. When we ignore this truth we are susceptible to great surprise. “I’ve been doing this for 30 years...this is the way it works,” can be a very dangerous mindset in the modern world. Too often I see this from industry experts. I remind them that Blockbuster, Kodak and many others had experienced experts as well.

The famous quip by former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld actually provides great insight and wisdom. There really are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. The most perilous are the unknown unknowns – those hidden things that appear randomly and emerge as chance. They are undiscoverable even with the greatest use of technology. Failing to acknowledge their existence makes us fragile and susceptible to great surprise and dependent consequence. Just look to financial market collapse (too big to fail?), the early days of the Arab Spring, and the Fukushima meltdown were each possible emergent conditions and each non-linear outgrowths therefore overlooked or not considered in mainstream thought. Talib’s Black Swans are real and are more common than we might believe.

To make sense of a rapidly changing world one should strive to “zoom out” and try and create an appreciation for broader system context. This context will be the foundation for interpretation, judgment and ultimately decisions. Recognizing the dynamic nature of the system bounds our expectations of control and leads us on a journey of continuous learning and discovery. Our path can’t be fully projected into a not yet created future. We can only navigate the contours of the system as it is revealed to us.  

“Seeing the world as it is” rather then how you wish it were disrupts old thinking patterns and opens up an entire new way of thinking, decision making and therefore achieving your desired future. To learn more register for one of our two day shops at www.thinkingcrisp.com or contact us at [email protected].