THINGS TO WATCH
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Market Reaction to Election
Most polling aggregates and prediction markets suggest very tight races for president and both chambers of Congress. The U.S. stock market has seemed mostly unaffected by the political uncertainty; however, the bond market action could take center stage this week. An increasing number of commentators have suggested a sweep election by either party could put additional upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields amid expectations for wider budget deficits. Most investors would probably view a divided government as 1) likely to result in a more moderate set of policies than either candidate championed on the campaign trail and 2) a subsequent reduction in the odds of further deficit expansion.
Fed Decision
On Thursday afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.50% - 4.75%. The weaker-than-expected October payrolls number last week could reduce the chances that one or more FOMC members dissent from a decision to cut by another quarter-percentage point.
Travel Stocks
Investors will get an update on global travel demand trends with results from Marriott International (MAR), Airbnb (ABNB), Expedia (EXPE), TripAdvisor (TRIP), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) this week. We will be watching to see if MAR’s luxury U.S. hotel segment (Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, JW Marriott) offset potential further weakness in its mainland China business focused in non-Tier 1 cities over the summer. ABNB’s bookings growth will also be under the microscope after disappointing second quarter results and guidance were attributed to signs of slowing demand in the European travel market and U.S. guests opting for shorter stays.