Things To Watch

Financial Sector Earnings

When Bank of America (BAC) reports quarterly results tomorrow morning, net interest income growth, investment banking fees, and any meaningful changes to loan loss reserves will be closely analyzed. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) wealth management inflows and dealmaking-related revenue will be in focus Wednesday morning. On Friday, credit-card delinquency trends in American Express’ (AXP) disproportionately higher-income customer base could shed light on the resiliency of consumer spending heading into the holiday season.

September Retail Sales

Retail sales data on Thursday will likely show headline U.S. consumer spending on a goods-heavy basket of items grew 0.2% last month, up from 0.1% in August. Control group retail sales, which exclude spending on cars, gasoline, food services and building materials, are expected to have risen 0.3% last month (the same as August), boosted by demand for essential items. Adjusted for inflation, September control group sales of 0.1% would indicate solid but not exceptional household demand.

Prologis

We’ll be looking for signs of stabilization in the industrial warehouse REIT’s core business Wednesday in the form of improved rent growth and lower vacancy rates. Demand for Prologis’ (PLD) warehouse and logistics facilities slowed in 2023 and 2024 following a scramble for industrial space in the first few years of the pandemic. PLD’s numbers and commentary could provide useful clues about U.S. consumer spending momentum on goods given the company’s large multi-market customers including Amazon.com, Home Depot, and FedEx.

Japanese Inflation

Overnight Thursday, Japan’s October consumer price index is expected to show annual price levels rose 2.5% last month in the world’s third-largest economy. An upside surprise could drive markets to price another Bank of Japan rate hike and spark global currency volatility.