Thin Ice

Good morning from Albany, New York, where on this day in 1841, Frederic Pepoon Olcott was born.

Olcott was appointed New York State Comptroller on January 1877 to replace Lucius Robinson (Robinson had been elected Governor). A Democrat, he was elected to the post in November 1877, but lost reelection to James Wadsworth as the Greenback/Labor Party split the vote.

Today, all eyes remain on New York City and Mayor Eric Adams amid simmering controversies over justice, immigration, and the power of a mayor and a governor. Following a wave of high-profile resignations from the Department of Justice and U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, U.S. District Judge Dale E. Ho made the rare decision to order all parties to court last week to explain the reason for dismissing the case. The acting Deputy Attorney General, Emil Bove, insisted there was nothing nefarious about the government’s decision to dismiss the case, saying, “What is set forth here is my conclusion that this case, as a matter of prosecutorial discretion, should not proceed because it reflects, at minimum, appearances of impropriety that give cause for concern about the abuse of the criminal justice process. I don’t think there is anything particularly exotic about it.”

Adams’ lawyer, Alex Spiro (who, interestingly enough, has been Elon Musk’s go-to defense attorney), echoed Bove’s claims, saying an agreement to drop the charges in exchange for help implementing Trump’s immigration priorities “never happened.” Ho appointed former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement as amicus curiae to present arguments on the government’s request to throw out the charges. The judge said he wanted all parties and Clement to address the legal standard for dismissing charges, whether a court may consider materials beyond the motion itself, and under what circumstances additional procedural steps and further inquiry would be necessary. Briefs are due on March 7, and, if necessary, oral arguments are scheduled for March 14.

All of this has fueled calls from Adams' adversaries—and in fairness, some others, too—for Adams to step down and in lieu of that, for Governor Kathy Hochul to exercise her constitutional powers to remove him from office. Thus far, at least, she has declined and will instead propose legislation to increase oversight over the Office of Mayor of New York City.

There is little precedent to guide Hochul; the only time a governor has moved forward with removing a mayor was in 1932 when then-Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt initiated removal proceedings against Mayor Jimmy “Beau James” Walker. Roosevelt spent two weeks grilling Walker, his business partners, and others while serving as prosecutor, judge, and jury. Before FDR could render a verdict, Walker resigned and fled to Europe.

Hochul sought input from prominent New York City Democrats and other leaders in the Black community, including Al Sharpton, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, City Comptroller Brad Lander, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Most have remained publicly noncommittal as they await Judge Ho’s final decision, but Jeffries offered, “It’s a deeply disturbing development. Mayor Adams has a responsibility to decisively demonstrate to the people of New York City that he has the capacity to continue to govern in the best interest of New Yorkers, as opposed to taking orders from the Trump administration.”

A little-known—double secret perhaps?—provision of New York City’s Charter provides another avenue for removing the embattled mayor. The Committee on Mayoral Inability is given the power to remove a mayor if they are physically or mentally incapacitated and unable to fulfill the duties of the job. Taking a broad reading of that provision, City Comptroller Brad Lander has argued that Adams’ deal with the Trump administration has effectively rendered him unable to perform his duties as mayor, saying, “They did not envision this particular set of circumstances, but they said, what if the mayor is not able to do the job? And there are five people whose responsibility it is to figure out that question.”

The Inability Committee is made up of five members—City Comptroller (Brad Lander), Council Speaker (Adrienne Adams), Corporation Counsel (Muriel Goode-Trufant), Longest-serving Borough President (Donovan Richards of Queens), and a deputy mayor appointed by Adams. Four of the five members must declare the mayor unfit, which then goes before the City Council for a two-thirds vote if Adams objects to the findings of the Inability Committee. Adams has remained defiant amid calls for his resignation, offering, “I don’t care how strong the winds of adversity may be and how many haters think they’re gonna continue to hate. As long as you hate, I’m going to let you know: haters will be my waiters when I sit down at the table of success.” If the Inability Committee does move forward, Adams might have a tough time finding a deputy mayor to appoint. Last week, First Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services Anne Williams-Isom, Deputy Mayor for Operations Meera Joshi, and Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Chauncey Parker all announced their plans to step down, writing in a statement, “Due to the extraordinary events of the last few weeks and to stay faithful to the oaths we swore to New Yorkers and our families, we have come to the difficult decision to step down from our roles.”

One important deadline to keep in mind is March 26. If the mayor resigns or is removed before March 26, 2025, a new mayor is elected in a special election held within about 80 days. If the mayor’s office is vacated on or after March 26, 2025, the public advocate becomes mayor until a new mayor is voted on at the November 4, 2025 election, after also having run in the primary election.

Another stormy issue is congestion pricing. President Donald Trump announced the end of congestion pricing in a letter from U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, explaining their objections to the program, including the burden on working-class drivers and the use of the tolling revenue to pay for transit rather than to improve roads. Significantly, Duffy did not specify a date to end the program, instead writing that federal officials would contact the state to “discuss the orderly cessation of toll operations.”

Hochul responded with fire; at a press conference with MTA Chairman Janne Lieber and other state and local elected officials, Hochul said, “I don't care if you love congestion pricing or hate it. This is an attack on our sovereign identity, our independence from Washington. And we are a nation of states. This is what we fought for. This is what people like Alexander Hamilton and others fought for: to set up a system where we are not subservient to a king or anyone else out of Washington.” Hochul has vowed to challenge the move in court—the MTA already filed—and has taken a more adversarial approach to her dealings with the Trump Administration, saying that, despite the federal intervention, “the cameras are staying on.” The estimated $1 billion of annual projected revenue from congestion pricing was expected to leverage $15 billion in municipal bonds to fund much-needed repair and expansion projects for the MTA. Should that revenue stream disappear, state leaders would be hard-pressed to find a replacement.

In the meantime, Hochul and Trump met Friday at the Oval Office for more than an hour for a “frank, candid conversation about New York’s key priorities, including congestion pricing, immigration, infrastructure, economic development, energy, offshore wind, and nuclear power,” according to a Hochul spokesman. More to come, but early reports indicate little changed. Trump told the New York Post: “It was a very cordial meeting . . . I don’t see how I can back off. The tax is devastating.”

Last week, the State Court of Appeals released their decision in a case brought by former Governor Andrew Cuomo against the state’s ethics board that potentially had far-reaching consequences for New York’s enforcement of ethics rules on elected officials and lobbyists. In a 4-3 decision, the Court of Appeals overturned the lower courts, ruling that the Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government (COELIG) does not violate the state constitution’s separation of powers provision. Cuomo filed the lawsuit in response to an investigation by COELIG’s predecessor into his use of state resources for the publication of his pandemic-era memoir. Cuomo and his attorneys had argued that the structure of the commission infringes on the rights of the executive branch given that the board’s members are approved by a panel of law school deans, not the governor. The majority on the Court of Appeals disagreed, writing that the public interest in having a functioning ethics commission outweighs any potential harm caused by the separation of powers question, although the legislation establishing COELIG “extends very close to the boundary of permissible legislation.” Cuomo has said he intends to file a motion asking the Court to reconsider, highlighting the fact that all the lower courts had ruled unanimously in favor of Cuomo.

Meanwhile, the wildcat strike by correctional officers at nearly 40 prisons statewide has entered its second week, leaving state officials scrambling to ensure prisons are secure and staffed and hopefully safe. The strike has not been authorized by the union and is technically illegal under the state’s Taylor Law, leaving striking guards subject to fines or other sanctions. In a video statement, Hochul said, “I am directing everyone involved in these unlawful strikes to stop these actions immediately. Legal action has already commenced to ensure compliance.” Hochul also signed an executive order directing 3,500 New York Army National Guard troops to prisons across the state to “help maintain general order and wellness.” She also introduced an amendment to her proposed budget, giving her the power to close as many as five additional prisons. The striking guards released a letter of their demands, which include “(1) no penalties for members who have walked off the job; (2) suspension of HALT or persistent holiday schedule to ease the burden on staff; (3) two-pay-grade increase for all COs and Sergeants to help with recruitment and retention; and (4) to discuss all outstanding financial, staffing, and working condition issues before an independent mediator to begin immediately.” Seventy-three percent of union membership voted to approve a new collective bargaining agreement just last year, but the striking guards said the agreement has done nothing to improve conditions on the ground.

In Washington, D.C., President Trump has officially backed the House GOP plan to move forward with “one, big, beautiful bill” over the Senate’s bifurcated approach. On social media, Trump posted, “We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to 'kickstart' the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, 'ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.' It will, without question, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” The Senate has its own package that would address energy, border security, and defense spending now, leaving tax policy for a second bill. Nonetheless, the Senate continues to move forward with its plan in the event that House Speaker Mike Johnson cannot keep all of his members on board—seemingly with the blessing of the White House since, early Wednesday afternoon, Vice President JD Vance met with GOP senators and gave them the green light to continue their two-bill approach. The House has a very tough road: Johnson is fielding criticism from both of his flanks, with moderate members concerned about deep cuts to Medicaid and fiscal hawks who would like to see steeper cuts to offset the costs of corporate and individual tax breaks.

The Senate proposal calls for a $150 billion increase in defense spending and a $175 billion increase for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), but does not lay out specific cuts to offset those increases, though Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the legislation would be fully paid for. The House bill is much larger and more explicitly highlights cuts to assuage the concerns of hardline conservatives. Their proposal would add $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, requiring a subsequent $4 trillion debt limit hike, and would enact sweeping cuts to pay for the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts contained in the bill. Trump has vowed to protect social safety net programs, saying just last week, “Medicare, Medicaid—none of that stuff is going to be touched,” but the levels of spending cuts assigned to the Energy and Commerce Committee, $880 billion, are virtually impossible to reach without some reduction in funding. These larger issues will likely take time to negotiate and navigate while a more urgent deadline looms: Congress now has less than three weeks to come to an agreement before the March 14th funding deadline expires.

This is a very different political world than during the more recent shutdown deadlines.?Past agreements have been short-term deals adding more money for programs favored by both parties in order to garner bipartisan votes to stave off a shutdown. Today, Democrats are outraged by Trump and DOGE and, frankly, some constitutionally questionable cuts to Congressionally appropriated funding, and as such, are demanding an agreement written into the package that requires Trump to abide by these spending bills.

Republicans know that without any Democratic votes, the government will shut down, but are hard-pressed to agree to such a rider.?At least a half dozen conservatives in the House—in fact, likely many more—will refuse to vote for any bill funding the government, especially if any agreement is at the level of the 2023 funding deal, which appears to be what appropriators are discussing.

All of this means a government shutdown is most certainly looming.?Stay tuned.

New York State Legislative hearings continue tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. with Higher Education. Following the hearings, the Senate and Assembly will develop their respective One-House Budget proposals, leading to negotiations on a final budget. The goal is to complete the budget by the end of the state fiscal year on March 31. The hearing schedule and live streaming access can be found here, and check out our thorough analysis of the 2025 Legislative Session in Albany here.

Finally, farewell to our dear friend Brendan “Bik” McFarlane.?He lived a life in pursuit of freedom, peace, and unity.?Rest in Power Bik: “Freedom’s fight can be won, if we all stand as one!”

-Jack O’Donnell