Thetan Arena Deconstructed, How much can a player make?
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Thetan Arena, a crypto MOBA game was recently released and has attracted millions of players. Their website actively shows registered users, and it today has a robust 22.5 million users. The game is not only entertaining, but it also includes "Free to Play" (F2P) and "Play to Earn" options (P2E). A quick search online suggests people playing this game can earn hundreds of $cha-ching$ day and make a living but let’s see how true that is… In this article you will find “Thetan Arena Deconstructed”.
Even for a crypto game, it seems enticing, when paired with active and fluid gameplay that is actually fun, which is rare to see, it explains the massive increase in the number of active players. Considering that only a small portion of player utilize NFT’s begs the question, are people actually making money off of this game? We dug deep and made a simulation of the game’s economy showing us numbers set it on an excel and saw what is going down.
First off, how does one earn money from Thetan Arena?
The play to earn system revolves around Thetan Coin (THC), it is the game's infinite supply cryptocurrency, which players can acquire in a variety of game modes. Earned THC then can be deposited into their own crypto wallet. After that, gamers can sell their THC on an exchange, completing the loop of play to earn.
THC coin reached a peak of around 90 cents after launch however it quickly declined as the number of players increased over the days, more people playing meant that more people were getting the infinite supply token and draining its value.
In Thetan Arena, players use heroes to participate in battles. The heroes in the game are NFT items and must be obtained by trading in the marketplace from another player or buying a Thetan Box that contains one random hero. The NFT heroes will earn some amount of THC after each battle. Of course, winning the match means more THC is earned.?
Players buy heroes in Thetan Arena in order to play the game. The game's heroes are NFTs that may be bought from other players in the marketplace or purchased through a Thetan Box, which gives one random hero. After each game, (depending on the game mode) players with NFT heroes will earn THC rewards, note that non-NFT heroes will not award coins! But non-NFT heroes can also obtain Free to Earn rank up rewards. Game Win Rewards increase as the hero rarity does.?
Boxes common and epic are valued at 1000 THC, 2000 THC respectively for Legendary boxes, the value is calculated at that times’ THC and THG ratio with x10500 consistently resulting around x10 the price of common box. As for NFT’s sold on the marketplace, the floor price is usually %10 under the respective boxes’ value.?
As $THC is at 0,013 right now the boxes are hella cheap… But this was not the case when the game launched and not everyone could have bought them easily.?
The THC that players earn in the game is not?really a token, it is?known as gTHC, which has no real value, this is used to overcome regulation problems regarding mobile application stores. Players must convert their game tokens for real THC in their wallets through Thetan website, also?the game limits Free to Earn?players?to just 60 gTHC tokens every two days.?Another condition is that Free to Earn?players cannot collect their THC until they achieve Bronze 1 rank. To avoid farming bots, a profit barrier is very reasonable. The issue is that getting to Bronze 1 is not so?simple for non-gamer people.
Also while claiming tokens, players will have to pay a fee in the form of THG calculated using this equation.
How much do players earn?
?Now that everything is down and, on the table, lets answer the first claim, it is not possible to earn a $100 a day as a Free to Earn player that should be obvious and for paid players, well it used to be possible for a couple of days when the game launched, and the THC price was still high even until 50-40 cents range while using legendary heroes. However little to no-one took the price of those legendary heroes into calculation, they used to be over $3000 dollars at that time. Hence all the videos and posts claiming people make good money from the game, today with the token price of THC at 0.013 this is impossible. The situation is similar for the less expensive alternatives, using multiple common and epic heroes could be an option but they also make less money and require an immense daily time investment. Based on our calculations, epic boxes were more likely to lose money than to make money since they had a chance to give common heroes which was changed on January 23rd almost two months after release.
These are the old drop rates, and the following are the new rates:
Since release, daily limit on THC winning games per character also changed, OH we forgot to mention there is also a limit to how much a hero can earn in its lifetime and a limit of matches per day.?
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The game really wants to pay you back in a long time with all these limitations.?
And regarding the two changes mentioned, they may have increased the amount of THC per battle players earn but nerfed the amount battles by so much that the time required ROI almost doubled.
Time to talk numbers!
The amount of THC won per match seems to be the only thing that did not change through the games life which are listed above, from a basic observation it could be said that Team Modes will be giving the best result at average in terms of rewards, in Battle Royale modes placements are what pays the player and logically, decreasing the amount of competition while gaining allies is an optimal form of solution. Not to mention When playing team modes players get paid even if they lose while this is not the case for Battle Royale modes, but I digress.?
Let’s start with how it used to be, 7th of December 2021.
At this time THC was hovering around 0.3 cents USD while THG was around 12-13 USD.?
It is the day before changes in game came, before crypto market crash and an average time for when Thetan really started to pick up attention, our excel sheet used to show:?
The calculations were done with a 60% win rate against 35% lose rate and %5 draw rate, which are generous numbers that are the bare minimum required to make the money worth the players effort.?
The calculations also assume that the player is buying boxes, to make assumptions based on marketplace simply take the header “Earnings USD” and subtract the amount it would have costed to buy a character for cheaper on the market.
This table calculates the chance of getting a certain rarity of a character from a box that would earn its respective rarities’ average amount of THC tokens in its given lifetime, subtracts the withdrawal fee and box fee from the total and returns net income shown by green.
It also shows how much time this would take constrained by Daily gTHC earning matches in terms of days.
If a player had three legendary characters or almost a $10K initial investment and had at least %60 win rate then yeah, it was possible to make a $100 USD daily as long as THC token was $0.3 cents USD.
Time skip! 24th of February 2022, almost 3 months after release:
Market crashed, time for ROI got longer with game changes if there is left any at all, and THC value decreased by %98 from its all-time high, this is what the excel shows now:
With the same win rate, a player now only makes 40 dollars with a legendary character at an average of 70 days. Although any amount of THC a player makes may very well be worth less than their initial investment by the time they were supposed to reach their ROI. At least people no longer have to worry about losing money on epic boxes on average. :D
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