TheRumLab Industry Newsletter Week #49 of 2024

TheRumLab Industry Newsletter Week #49 of 2024

MORGAN RICCI Famille Ricci Rhum, Founder and CEO

TRL: Who is Morgan Ricci?

I am Morgan Ricci, founder of the family-owned company Famille Ricci, an independent rum bottler based in the south of France in Mougins. I am a passionate individual who wants to turn his passion into his profession and share his philosophy and expertise with customers.

TRL: What does the rum mean to you? What made you fall in love with rum and when did it happen?

Rum is a spirit with remarkable diversity, bringing together various cultures with distinct styles. What I appreciated most was seeing this multicultural side that rum embodies, as well as the fact that it allows for immense creativity in the craft.

TRL: Three essential characteristics that define the rum according to your perspective.

Culture, tradition, emotion.

TRL: What is the most important contribution you have made in the rum industry?

It’s about showcasing the art of blending. By bringing together rums from different regions and origins, we add complexity and elevate the tasting experience to an even higher level.

TRL: Benefits that the rum industry has given you.

A lot of encounters, especially with people, sharing experiences. It’s always a pleasure to see each distillery’s craftsmanship and philosophy. There are 50,000 ways to think about, approach, and make rum, and that’s what truly captivated me the most.

TRL: What’s another thing you are passionate about besides rum? Why?

We’re staying within the realm of spirits, but I am passionate about all kinds of spirits. In the end, when you enjoy a fine bottle, it’s not just about tasting the alcohol itself—it’s about savoring all the work behind it, starting from the raw ingredients, the way they’ve been handled, the production methods that follow tradition, and the innovations introduced along the way. Through each bottle, you can feel the craftsmanship and the philosophy of every person who worked on the spirit, and it is fascinating.

TRL: What is your favorite place for drinking rum?

After a good meal with friends, when there’s a bit of time to chat, you step aside a little, holding that lovely glass that accompanies this moment of conversation. When you take the time, yes, it’s even more enjoyable.

TRL: Favorite drink + Recipe

Without hesitation, the daiquiri—is simple and effective, with a rum that packs a punch!

TRL: Why is it important to educate the rum consumer?

What’s important is to welcome them with an accessible spirit. There’s no point in having someone new to this field taste a cask-strength spirit; that would just lose them. Instead, you should start them off with more approachable options and gradually guide them up the ladder so they can eventually appreciate more refined choices.

TRL: Any tips to train the palate and taste a good premium rum?

To learn how to taste a good spirit, I recommend looking into books, especially those by Cyril Mald, who has published some excellent and very interesting works that teach tasting techniques. Once you have the tasting technique down, it’s important to take your time and, above all, keep an open mind to truly appreciate the components of the spirit you’re drinking.

The technique I used to decipher what I was drinking was to imagine an aroma wheel. I start with a general wheel to determine whether I’m sensing fruit, floral notes, or something woody, and then, once I’ve identified the broader categories, I narrow it down to more specific details. For example, if I identify fruit, I visualize the fruit aroma wheel to pinpoint which fruit I’ve detected, and so on.

TRL: How can the rum contribute to improving the crisis in some countries?

I see two reasons: an economic contribution and a social contribution. The economic contribution comes from creating jobs in producing countries, which boosts tourism, attracting customers and generating wealth in certain regions. As for the social aspect, rum is all about sharing. It’s nice to come together to taste and discuss current issues over a drink, creating moments of camaraderie where we can forget about daily worries.

TRL: Is the commitment to sustainable development the key to success for the permanence of the rum industry in the world? Why?

Yes, sustainable development is essential for the longevity of this great industry, provided that things are done intelligently.

TRL: Who would like to meet in the rum industry? What would you say to him/her?

I’ve already met many people I wanted to meet. I don’t want to name anyone in particular because, for me, each person is interesting for different reasons. What’s great is seeing the diversity of thoughts and expertise. It’s important to engage with everyone, as you can find something valuable in each individual, and that’s how we enrich ourselves the most.

TRL: What are your next goals in the rum industry?

The next aim would be to develop, why not, a designation in the southeast of France, but that depends on finding the right sugar cane suited to our terroir and climate. It also requires having several stakeholders who want to move in this direction to create synergy. This is a project that excites me because there are wonderful opportunities to explore, with great perspectives and a strong identity to establish.

TRL: Why is the role of the bartender important in the rum industry?

The role of the bartender is important because they create moments of emotion through their creations. They also help explore pairings between rums and other flavors, such as herbs or spices. What’s interesting is the pleasure of enjoying a cocktail that is both creative and balanced, taking us on a journey. Ultimately, the bartender acts as an ambassador, reaching a wide audience and showcasing the world of rum through their cocktails.

TRL: What is your advice for new generations in the rum industry?

If they enter this field out of passion, they need to pursue their ideas wholeheartedly, stay true to their convictions, and let nothing hinder them from following those beliefs. Determination is essential. However, it’s also important to respect the craftsmanship, and the work done by those before us because rum is also about history and tradition. We should draw inspiration from that, even as we embrace creativity in our approaches.

TRL: How can people learn more about you? Website? Social media page?

You can find us on social media: @famillericci_rhum for Instagram and www.famillericci.com for our website. You can also come to visit us directly in Mougins. We will open a distillery pretty soon. And on Facebook at Famille Ricci.


TUA goes to Miami to recognize the best in the rum industry

Attention, rum aficionados: On January 31st, all roads lead to Miami. It will be the perfect time to escape the cold and change your outfit to beachwear and sunglasses. The Ultimate Awards are celebrating their 2025 Award Ceremony at the Miami Beach Convention Center.

Once again, The Ultimate Awards is preparing to honor the best of the best in the rum industry, but this time it comes with a surprise: a multi-competition that will produce eight winners chosen by the people.

Federico Hernandez, the CEO of The Rum Lab and one of the competition's organizers, explains that this time, eight different categories will receive awards: Best Brand Ambassador, Best Influencer, and Best Sustainable Distillery. Simultaneously, a special category will award an individual in the industry whose trajectory merits celebration, along with the Best Rum Bar in the USA, which includes the Best Classic Bar and Best Tiki Bar.

The categories

The Ultimate Awards Miami 2025 will present awards in the following categories.

The Ultimate Rum Ambassador 2025 (America & Caribbean): We are looking for that brand ambassador who has demonstrated skills, knowledge, and passion in the promotion, education, and culture of rum in the Americas and Caribbean regions. This category aims to honor the most exceptional individual who embodies the role of a rum ambassador in the Americas and the Caribbean, showcasing a deep understanding of the brand's history, production processes, and rum varieties, all while promoting responsible consumption and culture across various platforms.

The Ultimate Social Media Rum Influencer 2025: This category recognizes the most outstanding digital influencer who has successfully used social media to promote rum in an authentic, creative, and educational way. The winner of this category must have the ability to connect with audiences globally, promoting rum culture in an innovative and responsible way through visual content, stories, and interactive strategies.

The Ultimate Sustainable Rum Distillery 2025 (America & Caribbean): The award honors the most exceptional rum distillery in the Americas and the Caribbean, recognizing its adoption and implementation of sustainable practices across all production aspects. The winning distillery must demonstrate a genuine commitment to the preservation of the environment, the responsible use of natural resources, and the continuous improvement of its production processes with an ecological and socially responsible approach.

The Ultimate Lifetime Legacy Achievement 2025 (America): This category celebrates an individual whose career and contribution to the world of rum in America have had a transformative impact and who has left a lasting legacy in the industry. The winner must be an outstanding figure who, throughout his or her career, has been a visionary leader, innovator, and advocate for the evolution of rum, both in terms of production, culture, sustainability, and market expansion.

The Ultimate North America's Rum Bar 2025—USA Edition will celebrate the most exceptional rum bar in the United States, a place that not only offers an impressive selection of high-quality rums but also creates a unique experience for its customers, standing out for its passion for rum, creativity in its cocktails, and a welcoming and sophisticated atmosphere. The winner will be an establishment that combines in-depth knowledge of rum with attention to detail in every aspect of the customer experience, from service to atmosphere. Apart from the core award, we will select winners in two additional categories: The Ultimate Favorite Classic Bar 2025 will honor the most outstanding classic bar of 2025, recognized for its exceptional quality of customer experience, its focus on rum history and culture, and its ability to offer an authentic and timeless ambiance. The Ultimate Favorite Tiki Bar 2025: This category recognizes the most outstanding tiki bar of the year, an establishment that combines tiki tradition with modern innovation, creating a vibrant and welcoming atmosphere that celebrates tiki culture, rum, and exotic cocktails.

We are delighted to present the Lifetime Legacy Achievement Award for the first time, honoring an individual who has dedicated more than 15 years of their life to the category of rum, its elaboration, production, and innovation.

How to vote:

The process is simple: The Ultimate Awards will receive nominations through the mail at [email protected] until December 13 of this year, and voting will begin on December 16 of the same month.

Industry insiders and supporters will be able to cast their votes for their favorite nominee at www.TheUltimateAwards.com, an award by acclamation. They have until December 23 to help get their nominee the possible prize. Members of The Ultimate Awards will then revise the top contenders and choose the winners accordingly.

Concluding the first day of the Miami Rum Congress, the Art Deco Room inside the Miami Beach Convention Center will host the awards ceremony and presentation of the final results on Friday, January 31. ?One lucky winner for each category will take home the honorary award. TheRumLab digital magazine will also feature the winners.

The Ultimate Awards

The Ultimate Awards has dedicated itself for three years to honoring and recognizing the best in the rum industry. It is a celebration of those people and elements who surprise everyone by improving the rum industry.


You Actually Need 2 Types Of Rum For The Perfect Mai Tai

Eloise Rollins-Fife – 12/01/2024 – Yahoo

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/actually-2-types-rum-perfect-204021568.html

Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways

When you want to sip on a cocktail that has you feeling like you're in the tropics, nothing hits quite like a mai tai. The original mai tai was invented in the 1940s by the Tiki-loving restaurateur behind the once-popular chain of Polynesian themed bars, Trader Vic's, and has represented the archetypal Tiki drink ever since. However, because the original recipe included a now-defunct brand of rum, you'll have to work a little harder to recreate it today.

For an expert explanation of what goes into making the perfect mai tai, Chowhound spoke with Justin Lavenue, the Austin-based owner and operator of The Roosevelt Room, The Eleanor, & RoadHaus Mobile Cocktails. According to him, the first mai tai was crafted with "J. Wray & Nephew 17-year-old rum, which had a distinctive, rich, and full-bodied flavor profile, which contributed significantly to the cocktail's character." As the story goes, when Trader Vic's supply of the distinctive rum ran out, creator Victor Bergeron "adjusted the recipe to use a blend of rums to approximate the flavor, often combining Jamaican and Martinique rums to maintain the Mai Tai's signature depth and complexity," says Lavenue.

"As such, it's important to use multiple types of rum in a Mai Tai, as blending different rums creates a fuller, more layered flavor profile," he says. Any mai tai recipe worth its salt will use a blend of rums to replicate this effect, though the specific rums you use may vary. This is also a handy trick for other rum-based cocktails besides a mai tai.

Which Rums Blend Best In A Mai Tai?

To avoid mistakenly choosing poor-quality rums for your cocktail, it's important to keep in mind balance and complexity, according to Justin Lavenue. "Typically, a Mai Tai benefits from a combination of a rich, bold rum like Jamaican rum for its deep, fruity, and spicy notes, along with a lighter, smoother rum (such as a Martinique or an aged rum) to provide balance," he says. Some of Lavenue's Jamaican rum recommendations to approximate Trader Vic's original recipe include Appleton Estate's 12-Year-Old, Planteray Xaymaca, and, what he describes as, the "more potent" Hamilton Jamaican Pot Still Black.

Though you might assume that the difference between rums comes down to a simple light versus dark dichotomy, this isn't necessarily the case. For instance, Martinique rums can be either light or dark, depending on their aging process, much like other rums. To complicate matters further, it's highly likely that the Martinique rum used by Trader Vic in the mid-20th century bears little resemblance to the rhum agricole associated with the island today. Instead of focusing on a color difference, try to select two rums that "accentuate varying flavors," Lavenue says.

"One rum may complement the bright, citrusy flavors of lime and orange cura?ao, while another might highlight the depth of flavor brought on by the orgeat, offering hints of vanilla and caramel," he says. "This interplay of rums allows you to craft a Mai Tai with a more nuanced and complex flavor, enhancing the drink's overall depth."

"One rum may complement the bright, citrusy flavors of lime and orange cura?ao, while another might highlight the depth of flavor brought on by the orgeat, offering hints of vanilla and caramel," he says. "This interplay of rums allows you to craft a Mai Tai with a more nuanced and complex flavor, enhancing the drink's overall depth."


Waterford Distillery appoints receivers to save business

Nicola Carruthers – 11/28/2024 – The Spirits Business

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2024/11/waterford-distillery-heads-for-administration/

Mark Reynier has confirmed his Irish whiskey distillery Waterford has called in receivers to “secure the future of the business”.

Mark Reynier founded the distillery in 2015 after converting a former Guinness brewery in Waterford. The Irish producer works with local farms to create single-farm-origin single malt whiskeys.

A a result of ‘financial pressures in recent months’, Waterford had been working with financial advisors to explore turnaround options for the business, but a viable solution had not been found.

Interpath Advisory confirmed that Mark Degnan and Daryll McKenna were appointed as receivers for Waterford by HSBC. Distillation at the site had been stopped prior to this move.

Interpath Advisory said all 29 workers at Waterford will retain their roles until at least the New Year as the receivers start a formal consultation process and prepare to power down the distillery over the festive period.

Reynier took to social media to confirm the move, writing on Instagram: “Yes, I’m afraid it’s true.”

On X (formerly Twitter), he wrote: “I guess, though little comfort right now: ‘better to have tried and failed – than never to have tried at all.’ Our Waterford team have been superb – I’m sorry to have let them down.”

In a statement, he said: “I’m incredibly proud of what we have achieved at the Waterford distillery, the brand we’ve built over the recent, difficult years. The people that have helped us on the way, the farmers, maltsters, distillers and warehousemen – and everyone in between – I thank you.

“Irish agriculture produces the best barley in the world, of that I have no doubt – you can taste it. It has been a difficult decision to mothball our processes and seek the appointment of receivers to assist the company stakeholders, but I’m committed to working with the receivers to find a solution that can secure the future of the business and distilling in Waterford.”

Waterford Distillery had secured a €45 million (US$47.8m) funding package from HSBC UK in March 2023 to help the business expand internationally and lay down more whiskey.

The Irish producer received €45m financing through a Cross Border Asset Based Lending (ABL) Facility, leveraged against the company’s maturing casks of whiskey.

Reynier had previously worked with HSBC during his time at Islay distillery Bruichladdich where he was the former CEO until it was sold to Rémy Cointreau.

Available in 32 countries, Waterford had its sights set on the US as a target market.

HSBC refused to provide a statement.

Reynier is also the founder of Grenada’s Renegade Rum Distillery.


CAL launches J’Ouvert band, rum punch

Tia-Marie Lander – 12/02/2024 – Newsday

https://newsday.co.tt/2024/12/02/cal-launches-jouvert-band-rum-punch/

Caribbean Airlines (CAL) has launched its inaugural J’Ouvert band, as part of the airline’s Caribbean Culture Programme.

A media release on December 2 said Caribbean Iere Mas (CIM) aims to celebrate the region’s vibrant cultural heritage, offering an unforgettable Carnival experience.

The release said the CIM band will bring together the pulsating rhythms, camaraderie and revelry that define Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival season. Pre-registration for CIM is now open.

The release said CAL had also partnered with Angostura to introduce the Caribbean Iere Mix, a signature rum punch crafted for the season.

The beverage will be served on flights during the Carnival season and will be on sale at the duty-free shop at Piarco International Airport, said the release.

Garvin Medera, CEO of CAL, said, “CAL is a nexus for connecting people, places and cultures. Through initiatives like Caribbean Culture and CIM, we celebrate what makes our region special while creating unforgettable moments for our customers and employees. The launch of CIM and Caribbean Iere Mix is an extension of our mission to celebrate the Caribbean spirit while enhancing the customer experience.”

Angostura’s executive manager of business efficiency and shared services Rahim Mohammed said, “We are excited to collaborate with CAL to offer a specially crafted rum punch for passengers and at a time when we are celebrating our 200th anniversary.

"This rum punch, produced by Angostura’s expert mixologists, is the perfect blend of ripe passion fruit, succulent mango, tangy pineapple and our world-renowned Angostura aromatic bitters. The unique and exclusive Iere mix allows us to share a taste of the tropics with CAL's passengers in a memorable way and elevate their travel experience. It was produced to offer an authentic island-inspired experience.”

The release said the Caribbean Culture Programme reflects CAL's dedication to strengthening regional connections and enriching the passenger experience.


Limited Edition: Care after Combat 10th Anniversary Rum Now Available

Staff – 12/01/2024 - COBSEO

https://www.cobseo.org.uk/limited-edition-care-after-combat-10th-anniversary-rum-now-available/

To mark our decade of service, Care after Combat is proud to present our limited edition commemorative rum, crafted specially by G.H.Q Spirits.

This exquisite cask-aged Caribbean rum celebrates our journey while also contributing to our future.

For every bottle sold, £10 will directly support Care after Combat’s mission of helping veterans in the justice system!

Only 250 numbered bottles have been produced, making this a truly special collector’s item.

This limited edition rum makes a meaningful purchase, or with Christmas approaching, a meaningful gift that supports a cause close to all our hearts. Each bottle tells a story of hope and transformation.

Details:

? Price: £45.00

? Limited run of 250 numbered bottles

? Cask-aged Caribbean Rum

? £10 from each sale supports Care after Combat


India a ‘standout’ for Bacardí

Rupert Hohwieler – 11/28/2024 – The Spirits Business

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2024/11/india-a-standout-for-bacardi/

The global senior vice-president of Bacardí has highlighted performance in India as a “particular standout” for the rum brand in the past three years.

Roberto Ramirez Laverde said rum has experienced “steady growth” in recent years and is “forecasted to continue growing at a stable pace over the next three years”.

He added that Bacardí has increased its market share in the US, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands and Germany, which are all “key countries”, and that its “approach is rooted in supporting our core variants leading with Bacardí Superior/Carta Blanca, while developing innovation to leverage consumer trends in cocktails, flavours and convenience”.

Market-wise, it was India, however, that was highlighted by Laverde as a “particular standout”. He said: “Bacardí has achieved an impressive 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past three years [in India] and is poised for even greater expansion in the years ahead.

“In India, we have recently expanded the reach of one of our popular flavour variants, Mango Chile, which already has shown great success in Mexico.”

Education on premium rum

Of rum’s biggest challenge, Laverde admitted that “while consumers know and love our traditional white and flavoured rums, some need guidance to deepen their understanding of premium rum.”

He added that the brand is upping its education efforts with initiatives such as the Rum Room series in the US, where drinkers are offered immersive and interactive tastings, and activations in the global travel retail space that “help consumers navigate the premium portfolio”.

“Our aim is to create engaging and educational experiences that allow consumers to explore the artistry and craftsmanship behind our premium portfolio,” he said. “It’s all about connecting with our audience in a meaningful way, inspiring them to discover the depth and versatility of premium rum.”

Laverde noted that the premium rum movement presents a “bright and exciting” future for the category, with the brand’s premium offerings, such as Reserva Ocho, “gaining traction, with projections indicating a 2.4-point increase over the next three years.”

More avenues for growth

Looking at trends within rum, the brand hopes to capitalise on the popularity of RTD cocktails through Casa Bacardí pop-ups at festivals worldwide. In Bacardí’s 2025 Trend Report, Mojitos were predicted to be the number-one cocktail ordered at bars globally, aiding rum’s cause in the segment.

Laverde added: “Building on this momentum, we’re thrilled to introduce a Bacardí & Coca-Cola RTD in the coming year – a perfect marriage of innovation and authenticity that brings us even closer to our consumers’ evolving preferences.”

This year, the brand also partnered with pop star Camila Cabello, who serves as the global face of the brand.

Laverde views the celebrity partnership as an opportunity for further growth, explaining: “Not only do Bacardí and Camila have a shared Caribbean history that makes the two a perfect match, but the partnership also aligns with our ‘Do What Moves You’ initiative, aimed at celebrating self-expression and creativity.

“As a part of the partnership, Camila has developed her own cocktail, the I Luv It, named after her hit single, introducing the brand to a new generation of drinkers, rooted in a legacy of unapologetic expression.”


Map Shows Most Popular Christmas Cocktail in Every State (Excerpt)

Staff – 12/03/2024 – Newsweek

https://www.newsweek.com/

As the holiday season nears, classic cocktails take a back seat to festive beverages designed to match the joy and warmth of the celebrations. From eggnog to Christmas punch, many Americans embrace holiday-inspired drinks as a way to enhance their seasonal gatherings.

An analysis of Google search trends by Taste of Home magazine has revealed the most popular holiday cocktail in each state, showcasing a mix of regional preferences and national favorites, and Newsweek has complied the data into a new map, so you can see how your state likes to celebrate.

Christmas Punch

The classic Christmas punch emerges as the top holiday cocktail in America, reigning supreme in 11 states, including Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee. The punch is a vibrant mix of juice, cider, rum, sparkling wine, and fresh fruit, making it a staple for gatherings. Its versatility and festive presentation contribute to its widespread popularity.

Drinks retail has ‘lost the fun’, new report finds

Sarah Neish – 12/02/2024 – The Drink Business

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/

Producers and retailers must prioritise making shopping for drinks a “fun experience”, something that has fallen by the wayside, reveals new analysis.

According to the newly released Retail Proposition Index Report compiled by OC&C Strategy Consultants, drinks retailers need to hone in on “fun” to counter sliding sales.

The report says that re-focusing on fun is vital in order to reinvigorate the market and get consumers spending again.

“Much of retail has become functional, not fun,” says Luke Sparke-Rogstad, associate partner, retail and leisure, for OC&C. “Retailers that reinvigorate a sense of excitement and discovery into the shopping experience are gaining traction, particularly with younger consumers.”

Generation Z is leading this shift, the report found. Gen-Zs are twice as likely as baby boomers to name “fun to shop” as a reason to frequent a retailer.

Sparke-Rogstad added that the trend applied across all geographical locations surveyed.

Green shoots

Although we are “starting to see green shoots in consumer retail behaviour as inflation recedes”, the report urges retailers to “inject excitement and enjoyment online and offline”.

“Fun has been lost from the retail experience, leaving retailers more exposed than ever to competition for consumer spending,” the report says. “Consumers continue to prioritise leisure spend over retail.”

The report pinpoints a number of ways in which retailers can find the fun again. These include incorporating “eclectic product ranges, gamification of the purchase journey and hyper-personalisation.”

Gaming potential

In 2021, Californian e-commerce platform Underground Cellar introduced a new gaming element for its wine buyers. Customers with six wines in their basket, priced at US$30 each, may have half their order upgraded to bottles worth US$50 or more at checkout. The free upgrade is not guaranteed. It’s more of a “roll the dice and see” tactic that has proved popular with consumers and wine producers alike.

“Some of the best wineries and winemakers wouldn’t respond to us two years ago,” said founder Jeffrey Shaw. “Now they are coming to us, tail between legs, saying ‘we’d love to chat’.”

The drinks business also published a deep dive into how to pair wines with video games, including why rosé and Fortnite make the perfect match.

Meanwhile, Japanese electronics company Onkyo matured two wines using the NieR: Automata video game soundtrack. The audio was created by composer Keiichi Okabe, and praised by gaming reviewers the world over.

Engaging methods such as these could help to bring more “fun” to the drinks retail experience.


25% Trump tariffs on Mexico and Canada likely to put further pressure on Spirits

Staff – 11/27/2024 - CITI

CITI'S TAKE

Overnight, Donald Trump announced that he will apply a 25% tariff to Mexican and Canadian imports from day 1 of his presidency in an effort to stamp out illegal drug imports and immigration into the US (source: FT, 26/11/2024). This is clearly a further headwind for Spirits stocks. As per our recent note (here) Diageo imports 43% of its US sales from Mexico and Canada, Campari 27% and Pernod 16%. Assuming 10% tariffs elsewhere and putting the new 25% tariffs for Mexico & Canada into our Interactive Tariff (here) suggests Trump's tariff could lead to a -5.5% cumulative downgrade to Diageo EPS, 4.5% for Campari and -2.5% for Pernod. We expect spirits stocks to be weak again today with Diageo the most pressured.?


Trump’s 25% Tariff on Mexico & Canada and Additional 10% on China

Staff – 11/27/2024 - CITI

CITI'S TAKE

Last night, President-elect Trump said on Truth Social that his incoming administration would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office (Jan. 20) until issues around migration and drug trafficking had been addressed and an additional 10% tariff on China imports (Reuters, 26-Nov-2024). As we have previously discussed, Constellation Brands (STZ) is the most exposed to potential North America trade disputes given its beer business manufacturing base in Mexico, a legal requirement as per the US Department of Justice post the acquisition of the US rights to its Mexican beer portfolio (our STZ post-election note is linked here and our recent mgmt meeting note here). Other companies potentially impacted include BFB (on tequila imports and potential retaliatory tariffs), NWL (on China imports), and CL (on home & personal care imports from Mexico).

STZ Potential Impact of a 25% Tariff — STZ has the highest exposure to North American trade disputes given all their beer portfolio is brewed in Mexico. In our analysis we assume ~85% of beer COGS would be subject to the 25% tariff (all costs associated with the products ex-depreciations), which on a standalone basis would result in over a 25% EPS impact. As mitigating factors, we would expect STZ to likely take pricing (although unlikely the full extent of the tariff) with high volume elasticities as STZ would be the only major US beer player to take pricing and could benefit from the depreciation of the Mexican peso (~25% of beer COGS), albeit with a lag given STZ hedging policies. Overall, we estimate a -11% to -15% net EPS impact.

STZ’s Plans to Mitigate Tariff Impacts — We also note that at our investor dinner last week with Jim Sabia (note here), STZ’s EVP & President of STZ’s Beer Division, STZ acknowledged a high level of uncertainty on tariffs and deportations, but also highlighted that it has worked in the past with the Trump administration and the Mexican government with stronger relationships both in the US and Mexico currently vs. prior years. STZ could also potentially evaluate and accelerate additional cost savings to mitigate the potential impact on beer margins.

Other Potentially Impacted Companies — BFB is also exposed to Mexican import tariffs with ~7.5% of total company sales in Tequila, manufactured in Mexico. We also note BFB could be exposed from retaliatory tariffs from Mexico (~7% of company sales) and the European Union (~20% of sales) on American whiskey. For NWL, the company is more exposed to China tariffs with 15% of the current US COGS are products manufactured in China (down from ~35% 3-4 years ago). By the end of 2025, NWL has plans to be below 10% of is US business being sourced from China. CL manufactures some toothpaste and home & personal care products in Mexico that is sold in the U.S. While the company has not provided exact exposures, CL indicated it has developed mitigation plans, which have been in the works for a while. Other multinational companies have largely local production footprint, limiting risks for PEP, KO (with the exception of Mexican Coke, <1% of US sales), and PG. For CLX, we note the company has manufacturing facilities in both Mexico & Canada, but mgmt has not provided detail on sourcing to the U.S.


Pernod Ricard CMO prepares departure – Global Drinks Intel exclusive

Olly Wehring – 11/27/2024 – Drinks-Intel

https://drinks-intel.com/

Pernod Ricard is on the hunt for its next group CMO less than 18 months after creating the position, as Eric Benoist looks to move on.

In September last year, a redraw of Pernod Ricard’s senior executive structure saw Benoist move up to the new role from that of global marketing & commercial director. The promotion was the latest in a career with the company that started in 1993 and will end on 31 December.

During his time with Pernod Ricard, Benoist travelled extensively, to Asia as marketing director for two years, then more specifically to Japan, where he oversaw the company’s operations in the country as MD. As well as having been international marketing director at both the Martell Mumm Perrier-Jou?t and Chivas Brothers subsidiaries, he was also CEO of Wyborowa Pernod Ricard and of Pernod Ricard Central Europe for three years until 2018.

Details of where Benoist is moving to were not disclosed, although Global Drinks Intel understands he will semi-retire.

“We would like to take opportunity to warmly thank Eric for all his contributions and commitment during all these years while sincerely wishing him all the best in this new chapter he begins,” the company said in an internal communication seen by Global Drinks Intel.

Pernod Ricard has yet to appoint a successor.

In results for fiscal 2024 – to the end of June – the group saw its sales slip by 1% on the corresponding period a year earlier. Subsequently, a near-6% top-line decline in the first quarter of the current financial year was not enough to stop the group from forecasting a positive performance over the full 12 months.


Canada: Spirits and beer sales build back in Canada’s On Premise

Staff – 11/27/2024 - CGA by NIQ

New research from CGA by NIQ shows an uptick in sales growth for key categories of drinks in Canada’s On Premise over the summer.

CGA’s On Premise Measurement (OPM) service, which delivers powerful insights into sales across Canada’s bars and restaurants, indicates that spirits sales by value in the 52 weeks to early September were up by +4.6% year-on-year—but over the last 12 weeks of that period, growth rose to +5.6%. Beer sales were up by +4.3% on the 52-week measure, but by +4.9% in the 12-week phase.

Growth continues to be influenced by both increased prices, but also through consumers decisions to choose quality over quantity and premiumize their purchases. Combining these factors, volume sales remain down for both Beer and Spirits. However, the year- on-year deficit for spirits volumes has narrowed from -2.1% over the whole year to just

-0.8% in the last 12 weeks.

Along with these figures, the latest week of reporting from CGA by NIQ’s On Premise Sales Impact Report saw the week ending November 9th experience a +7% increase in

sales velocity for the average outlet nationally vs the previous week. During this week vs the same period last year increases were recognized across both ticket counts (+4%) and check values (+3%). Each major province was in growth and nationally, this week marks just the 6th time this year where ticket counts have surpassed last year, with half of these weeks all coming within the last 6 weeks alone. This, suggesting consumers’

confidence may be starting to improve.

CGA’s OPM solution also highlights positive trends across different provinces. Over the last 12 weeks, spirits volumes have grown year-on-year in Alberta (+1.0%), British

Columbia (+0.5%) and Quebec (+1.9%), with Beer volumes also in growth fractionally in Quebec (+0.3%).

Mitch Stefani, CGA by NIQ’s client solutions director – Americas, said: “This latest data has some encouraging signs of improving performance for key drinks categories. While we continue to monitor volume declines, they suggest some momentum may be starting to build. The holiday season will naturally capture increased visitation across On

Premise venues providing hope for operators amid facing different challenges. ”

CGA’s On Premise Consumer Impact Report meanwhile delivers expert insights into consumers’ latest behaviours, helping suppliers and operators track their motivations and preferences ahead of Christmas trading. It shows nearly nine in ten (87%) consumers are satisfied with the quality of experience they get on their On Premise visits, with the large majority viewing their experiences as better or the same as they did 12 months ago. Other insights from the Report include:

? ? ? ? ?Value for money is the most important factor contributing to a good experience, followed by customer service and quality food and drink

? ? ? ? ?Spirits are rated highest for satisfaction on value for money, followed by cocktails and beer

? ? ? ? ?A good atmosphere and live entertainment are both more important to consumers than they were 12 months ago.

CGA’s unique combination of the On Premise Measurement service and Consumer Impact Reports delivers a holistic view of drinks sales and habits across Canada’s On Premise. Deep and tailored analysis of sales performance is available by category, channel, period, region and much more.


Brown-Forman board chair stepping down

Staff – 11/26/2024 – Biz Journals

https://www.bizjournals.com/

The board chair of one of Louisville’s largest public companies says he’s stepping down from the role this summer.

Brown-Forman Corp. announced today in a release that Campbell Brown’s tenure as chairman of the board will end in July after three years in the role. Brown took over as chair in July of 2021, and says he plans to stay on as a board member in July.

Campbell Brown is the great-great grandson of Brown Forman founder George Garvin Brown. Prior to his time as chair, he served as president and managing director of Old Forester, Brown‐Forman’s founding bourbon brand.

He will be replaced by Chief Strategic Growth Officer Marshall Farrer, a fifth-generation descendant of George Garvin Brown.

“It has been an honor to serve as chair of the board and to work alongside the many talented professionals who comprise Brown-Forman's Board of Directors and Executive Leadership Team,” Brown said in the release. “Brown-Forman has always believed that thoughtful, well-planned leadership transitions strengthen our company for the long term. After working closely with board leadership, the time is right to entrust the role of chair to my cousin and fellow board member, Marshall Farrer.”

Farrer has been with the company since 1998 and has served on the board since 2016.

According to the release, Farrer relocated to Amsterdam and London in 2020 as president of Europe and joined the executive leadership team. He was named executive vice president and became Brown‐Forman’s first chief strategic growth officer in 2023.

He is one of Louisville's highest paid executives. According to Louisville Business First research, Farrer's total compensation was $3.66 million in 2023.

“Being named chair of the board is a profound honor, and I am deeply grateful for the trust placed in me by my fellow board members,” Farrer said. “I look forward to building on the strong foundation laid by Campbell and continuing our legacy of strategic growth.”

The appointment of Marshall, who enters the role with a deep understanding of foreign markets, comes as the company faces significant challenges abroad.

The market soured on the company in August when it revealed sales for the company’s most popular product, Jack Daniel’s, fell 8% globally. Additionally, potential tariffs from a new Trump administration threaten to upend the distilled spirits industry nationwide.

Brown-Forman is one of Louisville’s largest publicly traded companies, with revenue of $4.18 billion in its last full fiscal year and more than 1,100 local employees. The company features a lineup of several spirit and wine brands with high market share, including Jack Daniel’s, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, Fords Gin and Korbel.


Trump says he will issue executive order to charge Canada, Mexico 25% tariff on goods upon taking office

Staff – 11/26/2024 - https://www.foxbusiness.com/

Trump says tariffs would be in response to illegal immigration, drugs coming into the US

President-elect Trump on Monday said he would issue an executive order upon taking office to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the United States, as well as additional tariff hikes on China over the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs.

In a Truth Social post, Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, 2025, said thousands of people were "pouring through" Mexico and Canada "at levels never seen before."

"Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border," he wrote. "On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders."

"This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" he added. "Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem."

Dating back to his first administration, Trump has long pushed Mexico to be more proactive in preventing the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs into the United States.

"And until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!" he said.

In a joint statement, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada and the U.S. have "one of the strongest and closest relationships–particularly when it comes to trade and border security."

"Canada places the highest priority on border security and the integrity of our shared border. Our relationship today is balanced and mutually beneficial, particularly for American workers," they said. "Today, Canada buys more from the United States than China, Japan, France, and the UK combined. Canada is essential to US domestic energy supply, and last year 60 percent of US crude oil imports originated in Canada."

"Law enforcement agencies from our respective countries—the RCMP, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), the US Drug Enforcement Administrations, and US Customs and Border Protection—work together every single day to disrupt the scourge of the fentanyl coming from China and other countries," they added. "In addition, the CBSA is continuously strengthening its ability to detect opioids through enhanced inspections at ports of entry, detector dogs, and emerging technologies, preventing opioids from entering and leaving Canada."

In a subsequent post, Trump said he would institute an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods being imported into the U.S. over the "massive amounts" of drugs, in particular fentanyl, being smuggled into the U.S.

Trump said he has spoken with Chinese officials about fentanyl coming into the U.S., noting that the communist nation previously promised to put to death drug dealers involved in the illicit trade, but failed to follow through.

FOX Business' Lauren Simonetti reports on how families of fentanyl victims are calling for a major crackdown on China's alleged trade in the deadly drug.

"Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America," he wrote.

Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times stronger than heroin and can be fatal in small doses, has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans and is a factor in many drug overdose deaths. Many illegal drugs are laced with fentanyl to make them cheaper and more powerful. Some users don't even know they are ingesting the substance.

U.S. officials have frequently said that illicit fentanyl is created in Mexico using Chinese precursors and is then smuggled across the border by drug cartels.

"Indeed, unknown to most Americans, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is actively funding, supporting, and pushing America’s most deadly drug threat in history," reads a Heritage Foundation report called "Holding China and Mexico Accountable for America’s Fentanyl Crisis."

"The combined forces of deadly Mexican drug cartels and hostile Chinese ambitions have delivered to the United States a destabilizing crisis and a death toll that each year eclipses the total of U.S. casualties from the Vietnam War."

The report finds that chemicals are arriving through air cargo, postal facilities and maritime routes. The authors also point to reports of an increased Chinese role in networks in Canada.

Paul John eyes ‘rapid’ growth in India

Rupert Hohwieler - 12/02/2024 - The Spirits Business https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/

Although Paul John continues to flourish overseas, India is where the growth opportunity could be biggest due to its younger audience favouring local single malts.

At a recent dinner in London to celebrate the 2024 release of Paul John’s annual Christmas Edition whisky, and taste-test through its portfolio, The Spirits Business sat down with John Distilleries’ head of digital marketing and public relations, Asa Abraham, as well as founder Paul P John to talk about the brand’s latest developments.

Available in 44 countries and rapidly growing, Paul John single malts are making waves internationally, but it’s India, domestically, that is “still our largest market”, Abraham told us.

“I think India, domestically, is going to grow rapidly. It is growing very fast and we find that unlike the rest of the world, the Indian domestic consumer for single malts is actually a little younger than your international consumer,” she explained.

“Because internationally, drinkers may need to pass 35 years or so before they become a ‘seasoned single malt appreciator’, but in India you find that even at the age of 28 or 30, there’s a shift and there’s already a preference to single malt for younger ages. And India’s a very young country. There’s a huge development there. There’s an appreciation of quality.”

Paul John adds that the whisky is expecting more growth and in three years time he “will have to put up another distillery”. The pair note that work has already started on that. Production has also increased at the original Paul John distillery in Goa.

“We started with 2,000 litres of alcohol a day and we doubled it to 4,000 and now we have taken it to 10,000 litres a day of production,” John confirmed.

“We are already running short of some variants, it’s on allocation because of our planning. Whatever we planned six years ago is what we can pull out tomorrow. There are some variants where we have already run out of stock and we are now hoping that we can plan ourselves way ahead, at least six years from now, so that going forward we should not be in this situation.”

Indian whisky demand in UK

Speaking of the UK’s interest in Indian whisky, and world whisky in general, Abraham said that “people here [in the UK] have been drinking Scotch whiskies and traditional craft whiskies for so many years now, that I think they are really opening up and trying new world whiskies.

“Scotch whiskies are mostly elegant and the flavour profile is very defined and very hallowed, but Indian whiskies are a burst of flavour, especially malts. You get a lot of tropical notes, which are different and I think appreciated as well.”

“The UK is a huge market and it also has a very seasoned palate. They know their whiskies. They know their single malts, so if they appreciate our whiskies – we know we’ve ticked the box.”

Paul John single malts are also non-age-statement (NAS) whiskies, which are of interest because they “allow flavour profile to speak instead of the age,” Abraham believes. There are no distractions and primary focus is given to taste.

The tropical climate in Goa means Paul John loses 10% to evaporation on a yearly basis, in comparison to Scotland where it’s 2%. Long ageing isn’t really an option considering how much liquid the distillery loses to evaporation. Even with another Indian distillery in Rampur, which is located further north and with a slightly colder climate, the angels share is not as high.

“Our climate is pretty much 32 degrees throughout the year and it stays tropical through the year,” Abraham adds.

Covering every base

The Christmas edition, which was showcased at the dinner, retails for £60 (£76) and has an ABV of 46%. The 2024 version was finished in a Caribbean rum cask and vatted with malt matured in a virgin oak cask. Unpeated, it has aromas of mango and pineapple, with coconut, candied orange and dash of toasted oak on the palate. The finish then brings the likes of peach and salted toffee to the fore.

John says that the theme is to “give it the Christmas feel, like a Christmas cake. So when you drink it, that’s what you should be able to taste in the flavour.”

An annual blend – first launched in 2018 – that changes every year. Abraham adds: “We keep it within 7,000-8,000 bottles. It has become a collectors item, so we have a pre-booking system for it. We have people booking in advance, so it has to be good. We’re very privileged that there is demand like this for it.”

Paul John single malt aside, the pair also go through other plans at John Distilleries. The company also has an XO brandy made from distilled grapes and matured for eight years in French Limousin casks, and is working on a high-end rum that should launch in a few months. Moreover, it produces Original Choice, a blended Indian whisky positioned as the distillery’s “base price product”, of which John says has “sold over 24 million cases this year and is now one of the largest-selling whiskies in the world”.

“He puts his name on our premium spirits, so we have to maintain that…”, Abraham quips.

“But we’re hoping that we have and cover an entire portfolio, so that whatever the requirement is, whichever spirit, we should have a premium offering of that.”


Trump says he will issue executive order to charge Canada, Mexico 25% tariff on goods upon taking office

Staff – 11/26/2024 - https://www.foxbusiness.com/

Trump says tariffs would be in response to illegal immigration, drugs coming into the US

President-elect Trump on Monday said he would issue an executive order upon taking office to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the United States, as well as additional tariff hikes on China over the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs.

In a Truth Social post, Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, 2025, said thousands of people were "pouring through" Mexico and Canada "at levels never seen before."

"Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border," he wrote. "On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders."

"This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" he added. "Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem."

Dating back to his first administration, Trump has long pushed Mexico to be more proactive in preventing the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs into the United States.

"And until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!" he said.

In a joint statement, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada and the U.S. have "one of the strongest and closest relationships–particularly when it comes to trade and border security."

"Canada places the highest priority on border security and the integrity of our shared border. Our relationship today is balanced and mutually beneficial, particularly for American workers," they said. "Today, Canada buys more from the United States than China, Japan, France, and the UK combined. Canada is essential to US domestic energy supply, and last year 60 percent of US crude oil imports originated in Canada."

"Law enforcement agencies from our respective countries—the RCMP, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), the US Drug Enforcement Administrations, and US Customs and Border Protection—work together every single day to disrupt the scourge of the fentanyl coming from China and other countries," they added. "In addition, the CBSA is continuously strengthening its ability to detect opioids through enhanced inspections at ports of entry, detector dogs, and emerging technologies, preventing opioids from entering and leaving Canada."

In a subsequent post, Trump said he would institute an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods being imported into the U.S. over the "massive amounts" of drugs, in particular fentanyl, being smuggled into the U.S.

Trump said he has spoken with Chinese officials about fentanyl coming into the U.S., noting that the communist nation previously promised to put to death drug dealers involved in the illicit trade, but failed to follow through.

FOX Business' Lauren Simonetti reports on how families of fentanyl victims are calling for a major crackdown on China's alleged trade in the deadly drug.

"Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America," he wrote.

Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times stronger than heroin and can be fatal in small doses, has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans and is a factor in many drug overdose deaths. Many illegal drugs are laced with fentanyl to make them cheaper and more powerful. Some users don't even know they are ingesting the substance.

U.S. officials have frequently said that illicit fentanyl is created in Mexico using Chinese precursors and is then smuggled across the border by drug cartels.

"Indeed, unknown to most Americans, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is actively funding, supporting, and pushing America’s most deadly drug threat in history," reads a Heritage Foundation report called "Holding China and Mexico Accountable for America’s Fentanyl Crisis."

"The combined forces of deadly Mexican drug cartels and hostile Chinese ambitions have delivered to the United States a destabilizing crisis and a death toll that each year eclipses the total of U.S. casualties from the Vietnam War."

The report finds that chemicals are arriving through air cargo, postal facilities and maritime routes. The authors also point to reports of an increased Chinese role in networks in Canada.

Why Is Everyone ‘Sober-ish’ All of a Sudden?

Katie Roiphe – 11/26/2024 – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/

More people are entering the holidays with a mindful relationship with alcohol. It turns out this isn’t a total drag.

Have you noticed that your friends are a little less fun? That everyone leaves a dinner party earlier? That their stories are less wild or funny or revealing? This may be because so many people have decided to cut down on their drinking after a spate of ominous articles on how alcohol, even in moderate amounts, increases your risk for cancer and other serious health problems.

After years of pushing the benign myth that a glass of wine a day is good for the heart, it seems the medical establishment has abandoned hedonists and pleasure seekers. Is there a safe amount of alcohol? It turns out no.

For this and other more amorphous reasons, I have noticed increasing numbers of people around me are sober-ish. They drink only socially or only two glasses of wine a week or only in restaurants. They are not willing to give up drinking entirely, which feels like too vast and depressing a surrender of life’s pleasures. So they make rules for themselves.

Someone I know has a new ritual of drinking a nonalcoholic beer with nuts on her terrace. Another friend told me that she used to drop by for drinks at friends’ houses in the evenings, and now it is just as often tea.

One obvious problem with this new responsible, upstanding mode of socializing is that it shortens parties. When people are drinking, time blurs and the evening spools out pleasantly. No one thinks about a meeting the next day or getting the kids off to school. But when they are having maybe one glass of wine, the evening ends promptly. There is no lingering, no new bottle opened, no children awoken by noisy guests, no wine bottles left on the table by tipsy hosts. This may be the end of long boozy nights.

The sober-ish life also leads to peculiar new etiquette frontiers. One friend of mine observed, “When you go out to dinner with someone now and the waiter comes to take the drink order and they say, ‘just water for me,’ you know that person is saving their glass of wine for a better dinner. They are not committing to the evening. You’re not worth a drink.”

For many this health news coincides with other more ineffable feelings that drinking isn’t as much fun as it used to be. That ebullience we remember from the old days is harder to come by or concoct. Is this sad? Is it actually fine and maybe even nice? Those brisk weekend mornings when you get up early and work or take the dogs on a walk through the red gold leaves with your head clear? They are not so bad.

There are certain people I see only over real alcoholic drinks, because of stressful undercurrents, because they themselves are big drinkers, or people for whom the ritual of a cocktail matters, people who like to be festive in an old-school way. They are people I find myself seeing less.

I had a boyfriend in my 20s who didn’t drink. He didn’t want his mind to be clouded the next day. He drank grapefruit juice or sparkling water. At the time this irked me. It felt annoying that his body was a temple, and that he never really gave up control (not because he once had a problem with drinking, which I would have understood, but just because he was preternaturally responsible). Now, in occasional flashes, I can see the appeal of this spartan, healthy life.

The newly sober-ish have aging parents, have sat by hospital beds, have felt the slow approach of death. They have been up late worrying that they or someone they love is sick or declining. So it is not as easy to block out medical warnings as it once was. The desire to feel clear and healthy is stronger.

I can’t help admiring my friends and family who are still excessive and careless, who still go for the third martini. I remember reading about Mary McCarthy, one of the writers I most admire, traipsing around the West Village in the 1940s. The night she met one of her husbands she drank three daiquiris before she saw him, two Manhattans with him and a bit of red wine at dinner. There was a lot of mayhem and disorder back then. I think of a line from a John Berryman poem that sums it up: “Somebody slapped/ Somebody’s second wife somewhere.”

I recently threw a party for 50 of my graduate students and former students at my house and noticed that they are mostly not sober-ish. They sometimes run off with each other’s coats or shoes. They smoke on the deck and leave cigarette butts in plants and go out to a bar afterward.

After half a glass of wine, I couldn’t help noticing that I had better, more substantive conversations with more of them than I recall having at past parties when I might have had more to drink. I talked to everyone I wanted to talk to. I made sure that everyone mixed. To my surprise, as I was blowing out candles and throwing away plastic cups, I realized that I probably had more fun than I would have had on a tipsier night. ?

I guess another piece of good news about the sober-ish life is that you do really savor and appreciate your glass of wine, in those rare glimmering moments it appears. A sip or two is a party.


European Spirits: Nielsen data: European industry sales growth softer at -2.6% with 2019 stack stable at +8%.

Staff – 12/02/2024 - CITI

CITI'S TAKE

EU Spirits volumes fell -3.6% in the 4 weeks to November 3rd, below the previous month at -2.2% and on c.30bps tougher comps. This leaves 12-week volumes down -2.6%. Industry price/mix was up +1.1%, in-line with the previous 4-wks leaving overall industry sales down -2.6% (previous month -1.1%). Diageo 4-wk sales fell -5.0% (previous 4-wks -5.6%) and Pernod fell -3.8% (-2.5%), while both Campari (+0.6% vs -2.0%) and Rémy (+2.9% vs +0.1%) were in growth. On a 2019 stack, industry sales were stable at 108, with Diageo (119 vs 122), Pernod (97 vs 103) and Campari (146 vs 168) all lower but Rémy (113 vs 111) higher.

Market & category performance — GB sales were down -1.6% (vs -1.6% last month), with volumes down -3.7%. Spain sales were down -5.1% (+0.2%), with volumes down -4.7%. Italy sales grew +3.4% (+4.8%), with volumes up +3.0%. Germany sales declined -4.2% (-2.1%), with volumes down -4.9%. France sales fell -2.8% (-1.9%), with volumes down -2.6%. In the latest 4-wks, there were sales declines across each of Gin (-9.5%), Aniseed Spirits (-5.2%), Rum (-3.2%), Whisky (-2.4%), Vodka (-0.9%) and Liqueurs (-0.3%).

Diageo — Sales were down -5.0% in the last 4W, compared to the previous 4W at -5.6% and on c.50bps softer comps. This brings the 12W to -4.2%. Total European volumes were down -8.2% (12W -7.1%) and price/mix grew +3.4% (12W +3.1%). On a 2019 stack, sales growth was weaker at +19% vs +22% last month with the UK also weaker at +22% vs +26%. Value share was down -37bps in Europe.

Pernod — Sales in the last 4W were down -3.8%, after -2.5% in the previous 4W on significantly softer comps. This brings the 12W to -2.8%. Volumes were down -5.6% (12W -4.0%), with the UK up +1.8%. Price/mix was up +2.0% (12W +1.3%). 2019 stack sales growth decelerated from +3% to -3% this month, with France lower at -5% vs -10%. Market share fell -13bps in the last 4W.

Campari — Sales in the last 4W grew +0.4%, after -2.0% in the previous 4-wks on significantly softer comps. The 2019 sales stack was lower at 146 vs 168 last month. Volumes were slightly up (+0.1%) and price mix was up +0.5%. In Italy, Campari’s sales grew +3.3% while the 2019 sales stack slowed to 92 (last month 112).

Rémy Cointreau — Sales were up +2.9% in the last 4W, compared to +0.1% in the prior period despite c.410bps tougher comps. The 2019 sales stack growth was higher at +13% vs +11% last month. Volumes were up +9.7% and price mix down by -6.2%. Value share was up by +3bps in the 4W period.

Scope of Nielsen data — Nielsen provides data for 5 markets in Europe along with the total Europe data which covers nine markets (Germany, France, GB, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal). While the coverage is different in each market, we estimate it covers c.80% of the European off-premise. We estimate that c.55-70% of Western Europe Spirits sales are made in the off-trade.


How tariffs will disrupt the drinks trade

Staff – 12/02/2024 - FT

The spirits business suffered a humdinger of a hangover when the pandemic-era cocktail boom unravelled. Trade wars threaten to make the headache considerably worse.

This week US president-elect Donald Trump, who had already mooted tariffs of between 10 and 20 per cent on non-Chinese imports, threatened to put a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office. Meanwhile China has slapped duties of up to 39 per cent on EU brandy, in response to levies on Chinese electric vehicles.

It is a nasty cocktail for Europe’s drinks companies. Those with tequila brands such as the UK’s Diageo and Italy’s Campari are exposed to US-Mexico tariffs. Diageo also faces higher tariffs on Crown Royal whisky shipped from Canada to the US. Those companies along with Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard, both based in France, would also be hit by tariffs on imports from the EU and UK.

For some, the impact would be hard to swallow. Imposing a 25 per cent tariff on US imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent on those from the EU and UK would cut earnings per share for Pernod, Campari, Diageo and Rémy by 3 per cent, 8 per cent, 8 per cent and 19 per cent respectively, according to Deutsche Bank.

It might not happen. In 2019, Trump’s tariff threats roiled the market for months but were eventually watered down to cover just single malt scotch and Irish whiskey made in the UK, says Ed Mundy of Jefferies. The industry is lobbying hard on the impact on consumers and hospitality job losses.

Chinese tariffs are already proving disruptive. Hennessy, owned by French luxury group LVMH, briefly considered bottling its brandy in China to avoid import tariffs. But it suspended the plan after hundreds of workers went on strike. Rémy Cointreau is particularly exposed. On Thursday it said the proposed US 10 per cent tariff “is not going to kill us for sure” but acknowledged that the Chinese tariffs were a concern. It plans to cut costs and adjust prices to mitigate the impact, though weak demand will make it hard to pass on extra costs.

Even before Rémy feels the hit from Chinese tariffs, its sales this year will drop by more than analysts expected. There are, however, some early signs of stabilisation in the US market. Thursday’s 3 per cent share price rise is a sign that some investors think the fall in the shares — down by 70 per cent since 2021 — has gone far enough.

If tariffs are watered down, investors can start to look ahead to a time when the party gets going again. For now, however, the threat of higher duties is a big dampener on high spirits.


Until the next newsletter!

Federico Hernández - The Rum Lab



Rose MARIEN

Senior Brand Manager | Jewelry & Watch Industry Expert | Driving Growth & Innovation in Affordable Luxury | EMEA Market Specialist

2 个月

Loved this interview! Morgan’s passion for rhum and dedication to blending and educating are inspiring ?? Cheers to Famille Ricci’s amazing journey! ??

回复

要查看或添加评论,请登录

The Rum Lab的更多文章

社区洞察

其他会员也浏览了