There's a lot to love about Libya

Contents

There’s a lot to love about Libya; Conflict; Green energy or black, or both; Desert Gems; Peace dividend; Big, but still one?; A down under up over?; Not so daft…; Crucible of Eurafrica? Libya for Libyans; It’s not stupid to believe in Libya.

Libya is going through a difficult time in its history. There are many problems, rightly attracting a lot of attention.  Amongst those problems though, it seems also right to pause for a moment and dwell on the great future potential of this remarkable and unique land, poised just as strategically now as it has been throughout its history.

There’s a lot to love about Libya

My first views of Libya were flying over Tripoli’s suburbs into its airport around about 2001. It struck me then as a surprisingly middle-class kind of place, more southern Italy than Africa in standard of living. A place then under the undisputed thumb of an idiosyncratic leader, to say the least, but one nevertheless with some hope for the future. Capitals & biggest cities of course give a skewed view of a country. 

To say now, in 2019, that there is no shortage of problems is to put it mildly. Some horrible abuses are occurring concerning refugee and migrant worker populations, and of these we hear a lot – both those trying to cross to Europe, and those in detention centres in Libya.  Probably more still needs to be heard. It is a measure of the suffering that still occurs a few hours flying time south of us, that people are willing to risk both the Sahara, slavery, and Mediterranean deeps in leaky boats, to escape conflicts and poverty. Tragic events occur almost weekly, leaving no illusions about the scale of trouble gripping Libya. And the poor weary citizens of Libya’s major cities still try to eek some normality out of existence amidst sporadic battles on suburban streets.  

Figure 1: If you're driving, allow some time...

Yet there is also another side of the story seldom told, and that is how viable and prosperous a place Libya could be. It is one of those rare things in the world today – a place of moderate population and a huge land and subsurface resource, located centrally and strategically for intercontinental commerce.

Conflict

That something verging on civil war is eroding its confidence and hamstringing any attempts it makes to stride, largely goes without saying, but such instabilities do not last forever. 

Perhaps one way to help hasten their end is to remind and demonstrate how much richer everyone could be if co-operation reigned. It’s not that easy - we all know it, and I have no desires to appoint blame or paint one side white and another black. Conflicts are just never that simple and enough of that is going on already. I have no wish either to belittle differences in political philosophy between rival factions, as though they are trivial concerns that can be brushed aside over a convivial mint tea in the foyer of a Tripoli or Benghazi hotel. 

They aren’t. Views are strongly held, and rarely without reason. Even worse than domestic differences though, is the temptation for regional powers to make sure their favourite “wins”. In a country of such resource, this is hard to resist.  That is perhaps the biggest problem. Civil wars rarely last very long without fuel poured on from outside by vested interests.  Perhaps if regional powers also started to realise that their best chance of profiting was via peace, things might also take a turn for the better. Such things are beyond the reach of mere mortals perhaps, but it does no harm to remind.

For who cannot feel both sadness and frustration for the fact that this country could be so much more fruitful in peace.  It has so many of the required ingredients for a blossoming and burgeoning success. The population is largely well educated, young and vigorous (~>40% are <25) and keen to take their country into a new and prosperous era.  There is no shortage of labour to fuel economic activity domestically and from neighbours. That’s not to say people should be abused or taken advantage of, but it is to say there is an opportunity for symbiosis. In peacetime Libya is a place with much to do – and at a population of only 6.4 million - needing workers. With Libyan consent, neighbouring countries can help provide that if they wish to. 

This is something that Libya has long perceived, and yes, it opens opportunities for abuse, but it also opens opportunities for regional increases in standard of living. How to turn a terrible tide of illegal immigration, deprivation, and abuse, into something mutually beneficial for everyone - is the focus of much ongoing domestic and international effort. It’s hard, but migrant labour need not implicitly be a dirty phrase. It’s not without issue in the Gulf States either, but there the remittances that travel from the Persian Gulf to countries of southern and south-east Asia, seem on balance a regional force for good. It seems worth persevering with and not giving up. 

Green energy or black, or both…

Libya’s economy still revolves around hydrocarbons. It has a huge resource. The global appetite for hydrocarbons is changing, but as yet it isn’t decreasing. As alternatives become more numerous and widespread the use of hydrocarbons for combustion related energy will decrease. There is no shortage of other uses for hydrocarbons though – about 25%-30% of their uses globally do not involve combustion. Reduced demand might lead to reduced prices for oil, Libya’s key commodity, but a corollary is that with the ongoing need for hydrocarbons, production is more likely to become focussed in those countries where resource is abundant and cheaper to extract. That is to say - countries like Libya, where that has always been the case, and will be for some time to come.

Figure 2: Hydrocarbons and active tectonics of Libya.

The energy potential in Libya is not just from further hydrocarbons though, but also from solar.  Vast swathes of the country get more than 3500 sunshine hours per year. It can become a solar powerhouse of epic proportions. Of course vast numbers are imaginable if one imagines carpeting the Sahara with solar panels, but those hyperboles aside, Libya still has the potential to provide some of the emerging economic vanguards of North Africa, (most especially Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria and Ethiopia), with large fractions of their energy needs, not to mention the EU - as interconnectors increase in both number and technological efficiency.

Figure 3: Work Bank Group Global Solar Atlas - Direct normal irradiation. I'm no solar expert but I'm guessing that ubiquitous brown and purple in Libya - is probably a good thing for solar energy potential.

Libya is also on the doorstep of some major uranium reserves present in its neighbour Niger. The old sedimentary basins which characterise Niger deposits are not totally absent from Libya. Uranium exploration has occurred in the past and civil nuclear power has attractions (down-the-line) if a sizeable domestic resource can be pin-pointed. The potential for desalination to further water the coastal strip is large, which could be assisted by such power. 

Yes, there may be a bit of global psychological journey to travel, maybe taking a decade or two, before the concept of a nuclear-powered Libya can be happily accepted internationally. That said, if it can occur as it does already in Iran and United Arab Emirates, and as is being considered in Egypt and Turkey - why not Libya? Maybe not tomorrow, but civil nuclear power in desert countries with little water resource other than maritime coasts, has merits worth thinking about. New nuclear technologies are making weapons material extraction harder from civil uses.  That’s not to say there aren’t security issues, but perhaps they are surmountable. Of all the things lacking investment in this world, security technology is not one of them.

Figure 4: Major sedimentary basins in Libya, and those with Infracambrian sediments outcropping and sub-cropping.  Such old basins are good places to look for Uranium ore.

Desert gems

In addition to energy resources, mineral resources of the interior are vastly underexplored. Also, the tourism potential offered by Saharan pre-history, the stunning and varied beauty of desert itself, exceptionally preserved Roman ruins in numerous localities, unique tribal cultures, and Mediterranean woodlands of Cyrenaica - is largely untapped. Some of the most spectacular desert landscapes, oases, and pristine volcanic mountains of Africa - lurk within Libya’s interior. The opportunities for geo-tourism abound. The climate is an archaeologist’s dream, and the preservation of prehistoric rock art is second to none. I’m sure those with imagination could come up with many more suggestions. Dark-sky astronomy perhaps. If East Antarctica’s Russian Vostok station can lay claim to the world’s pole of cold, then for all the controversy surrounding historical maximum temperature measurements, maybe the Libyan Sahara can lay a reasonable claim to the pole of hot. Those who have been there recognise indelibly that it is a special place, if formidable.

Figure 5: Tourism potential.  OK there are a few bridges to cross before all these places are safe to visit again, but when they are, treasure awaits.

The options for tourism would vastly increase if security improved not only in Libya, but also in neighbours – to achieve really trans-Saharan scale. For example, some of Chad’s most impressive desert features – including as the 3.5 km high Tibesti Mountains and its massive volcanoes, are more easily accessed from Libya, though the landmines from past Libya-Chad conflict don’t help. Not all Saharan tribes want tourists, and that has to be respected, nevertheless a truly trans-Saharan epic only requires these two countries and careful management could benefit greatly those tribes that did engage. In the past tourism has been hampered by the considerable efforts needed to obtain Libyan visas, but these days the issue is simply safety given the different factions in charge of different areas, some of whom are hostile to visas issued by Tripoli. There are bigger problems to address perhaps, than tourist security, but the point here is less about that, more about future business opportunities for Libyans.

Peace dividend

All this potential - we have to admit is predicated on peace. What hope tourism when various factions are battling it out around Tripoli’s airport?

For all the conflagration, from afar, Libya in some ways seems remarkably calm and stoic. It has been through a traumatic period of its history, and in that context, it is not wholly unpredictable that a time of instability is occurring. This instability follows what was a long period of suppression, including that of internal regional identities. When I was last there, the people were kind and hospitable, but unlike other places I have travelled in the Middle East where vibrant opinions on diverse subjects were often freely offered, there seemed a weight of unspoken apprehension in Tripoli that held such things back. Opinions were bordering on dangerous. Something of the stoic endurance and restraint that took Libyans through those years, seems still in play today. The resolve of many to quietly “battle on through” this time of turmoil is admirable, not least the collective effort of some of Libya’s companies, from the biggest to the smallest. Heroic seems not too strong a word on many occasions. Many Libyans continue to risk more than just their livelihoods simply to keep working. 

Big, but still one?

In practical terms, it has not helped that key regions of Libya – Tripolitana and Cyrenaica, are separated by the arid Gulf of Sirte and Sahara and are historically distinct, yet Libyans have surely been under their one tripartite banner too long not to share something of a common destiny. For all their differences, Cyrenaica is poorer without Tripolitana just as much as the reverse is true, and the sparsely populated southern Fezza province would find it hard to go it alone.  In an era where the United Kingdom seems to be splintering along all sorts of divisions, it is hardly in a position to give advice on this front, but it seems a fundamental truism that when regions can pull together in a larger unit, their sum is almost always greater than that of their parts. Yes there are tensions, but wealth, and growth, is a great salve.

And what wealth!  In some ways, that is of course the problem. So much to fight for. Libya is one of those countries whose oil and gas resources make us wonder why we bother looking anywhere else, in places where it is so much harder to find. 

A down under up over?

I'm going to swing antipodean for a moment, as I'm sometimes prone to do, and suggest Libya could become an Australia of Africa. A population concentrated around the coast with a vast and arid resource rich interior, but like Australia, so vast that physical unity is a challenge. One might speculate cheekily as an outsider, that the federal system which has seemingly worked for Australia (most of the time…) is a historical concept that might equally one day be applied to Libya, if the different regions can eventually see some mutual benefit in aligning themselves with each other. If it has been tried in the past in Libya, it hasn't yet worked. The trick is setting up a system that is truly federal in nature, and not one that is just paying lip service to a concept while still allowing one area to dominate. To be fair though, all countries battle with this, i.e. managing to give all regions a fair say in the face of “biggest-city business-district cash”. If even mild-mannered easy-going Canada finds it hard, then surely there is no shame in it.

In countries so vast, there is always likely to be some resentments when much is ruled from a capital that is distant, and it’s probably impossible to ever totally obliterate these sentiments – such regional rivalries will always run deep in the DNA of any nation. It seems better to make the economic advantages of riding the same chariot so obvious that few people care so much as to jeopardise the ride. If there is jam on our bread, we tend not to care which half of the country it came from.

No so daft…

For all the criticisms of Muammar Gaddafi, there was no shortage of guile at play when he shifted many government operations and the Libyan parliament to his hometown of Sirte, almost halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi, Libya’s two most important centres of commerce. It was I suppose a device intended to help regions further away from the capital feel less side-lined. This of course was most important for Cyrenaica and its largest city Benghazi, but also for the areally large southwestern province of Fezza.  Perhaps Sirte was not the optimal choice, but the concept of a third city as a quasi-capital with Tripoli and Benghazi both capitals of their own regions, arguably was not so daft. The problem was of course, no-one in the civil service really wanted to work anywhere except Tripoli or Benghazi, and the main force holding Sirte together as another administrative centre was the fear of state retribution for those who dared dissent – and by that we mean a bulldozer through one’s home, not more subtle technicalities. 

The story of modern Libya is largely, with due respect to other places there, a tale of two cities. How city populations are measured is of course variable, but roughly speaking, in this country of 6.4 million people, half the population lives in, or near, to one of these two cities. Of that 3.2 million it’s approximately 2:1, Tripoli: 2.2 million: Benghazi, 1 million. That’s not to ignore the other cities, but when these two cities are happy and prosperous, the Libyan economy will be happy, and so the rest of Libya is likely to be happy too. Most of the other largest cities, with a few exceptions, are less than half a day’s drive from one of these two. If as seems likely, Tripoli is to remain the capital, the challenge perhaps is to peel off some civil service administrative capacities to Benghazi as well. Not just token ones. Sharing is always a great placatory device. 

Crucible of Eurafrica?

I can remember, in my taxi rides around a Gaddafi dominated Tripoli, the common posters showing Libya as a shining sun at the very top of Africa. It was very much a theme of the time, not least because Libya’s relationship with the rest of the Arab world - for many and complex reasons related to the then-leader’s ambitions– was a mixed one. In this day-and-age of the internet and 20-hour direct flights between London and Perth, it’s easy to overstate the importance of geographical proximity. Yet it shouldn’t escape our notice that all of Europe, all of North and West Africa, and all the Middle East, is a short or medium haul flight away from Libya. Tripoli is closer to London than Lagos. Italian and Greek islands of the EU are less than 300 km away from Tripolitana and Cyrenaica respectively (Lampedusa and Gavdos) – that’s similar to the distance between London and Leeds. 

Figure 6: A crucible of Eurafrica historically - can it be so again? A half day's flying time from a big chunk of the world’s population, and a portion of it with the most rapid growth.

Therein lies a problem right now, but therein also lies opportunity. For those of us in Europe, Libya is closer than we think. To forget it is a peril, but to awaken to it, is to open a door on something big, and something unique. That people are choosing Libya as a way point for Europe is no accident. Perhaps a logical city for African-European commerce interface is a Libyan one too. For that to be more than a fantasy though, requires peace, and sustained peace. Things might progress altogether more happily if foreign powers with an interest in Libya chose a Libyan start-up to sponsor rather than a Libyan warlord.  

The difficulty to be fair, might be separating these – they are not always different.  Such boundaries can be fuzzy. The real change I suppose, comes when everyone from leaders and warlords down, realise they and their supporters can make more money from peace. For Libya’s sake, in a double breath of both pragmatism and desperation, the onus is on interested parties to help that to happen, not unlike the progress that has happened in Northern Ireland over past decades. The main thing to do, hard as it may be sometimes, is not to walk away and give up. That is an understandable reaction when so many problems may seem intractable, but things can sometimes change quickly. No guarantee they will, but it’s not impossible.

Libya for Libyans

At the end of the day, it is of course for Libyans to work out what works best for them, and any offerings from the side-lines will always be glib in the face of suffering which has already taken place. Amongst that knowledge, there is tantalisingly little doubt this is a country that could truly go places if peace ever broke out, assuming (and it’s a big if) other powers in the region have the discipline to let it. In truth, it is difficult to say to anyone that right now is a great time to invest in Libya. While it may in fact be the best time in some ways – it’s difficult to say it with any sense of certainty. The ructions of a country still trying to find its new identity in a post-Gaddafi era remain rife with uncertainty, and in places, danger.  

At the same time, for a country so long suffering it also feels true to say that it deserves further investment, and genuine investment - not corruption and robbery. Countries of Africa have good historical reason to be wary of rich country investment – but the economic hegemony of Europe and North America is not what it was, and strong and confident cash-rich competitors are on the march.

We are told that China is now the world’s largest creditor, and it’s not alone amongst South and East Asian countries in having chequebooks open and at the ready. This gives developing nations new choices and new bargaining power, even if offers are rarely strings-free. While the dawn of a new age of developing economy advance may be oft stated and more rarely demonstrated, it requires little exaggeration or imagination, concerning a country of such human and material resource, to say that Libya will always be one to watch.  Increasingly the sense is not of whether good-news economic stories can come out of Africa but more which ones have a sense of long-haul about them.

It’s not stupid to believe in Libya

Amidst the undeniable troubles characterising the moment, let’s not fall into a habit of denying Libya hope for prosperity - the realisation of its future potential. Yes, it might take a tunnel-visioned, stubborn, and belligerent kind of optimism to weather the setbacks which will continue to periodically come, but such optimism is no less important for that. To believe that Libya can rise above its current turmoil and seize a place at the table of success and stability, might be hard sometimes, but I for one, refuse to believe that it’s stupid.  

We all know that a lot written here is not going to happen tomorrow, but for all the differences between factions involved in Libya’s ongoing tensions, all of them can see a place worth fighting for. If only they could find a way to do that together. There is a lot to loathe about civil war, but there is, there truly is, a lot to love about Libya.

Figure 7: Jebel Nafusa. Libya. Picture credit James Wheeler.