The Theory of Luck in Football! – The non-league perspective - And how you need it!

This article comes as perfect timing as recently Real Madrid clearly “got lucky” versus Bayern Munich in the 2017 Champions League Quarter Final last night. Decision after decision went against Munich and it was for all to see. The refereeing simply cost them and lucky Madrid went on to win in that tie.

Someone once said:

“the harder you work the luckier you get”

But is this really true? Having been involved in non-league football as well as professional football I can really see how luck is an integral part of success in sport. My colleague at Millwall, Larry Mcavoy and I regularly laugh at how much luck goes on in the previous weekend games and how so often this correlates with results. So when I mean luck I don’t mean the stuff you and your team are in control of. I am trying to explain the things that happen in sport that are out of your control. Things like:

·        Referee competence or incompetence

·        Oppositions talent or lack of talent on any given day

After all I don’t think anyone can argue about the variables that go on in any given game that make or break results on any given day. But most importantly can affect people’s jobs and careers!

This season I remember many moments of what you would say were lucky and things that were certainly out of a managers control. We played Canvey Island at home in late January and without exaggeration could have been 5-0 down at half time as their centre forward missed chance after chance. The game ended at 1-1 and I don’t care what anyone says but in my eyes that’s lucky!

One month later we played AFC Sudbury at home and were cruising at 1-0 up, when it in reality it should have been 3-0 to us. But we all know what a 1-0 score line is like don’t we as until you get the second it’s never over in football. In the 70th minute their centre forward went through on goal, our centre half got the wrong side and hauled him down. It was a blatant straight red and the ref never gave it! How? I’ll never know! In my eyes that’s lucky!

In the penultimate match of the season we played Met Police away which we won 1-0. Our goal was a set piece. They then bombarded us for 45 minutes with long balls in to box. Their centre half somehow missed three clear headers from 6 yards out. But the “luck” came when their centre forward had a carbon copy moment of AFC Sudbury game, but this time in the box! The decision was a blatant penalty against us which the ref never gave. Jim Cooper the Met manager was understandably upset and who wouldn’t be. I would have been the same. A truly shocking refereeing decision.

Now I could make a list of triple this size about the decisions and moments that haven’t gone Leatherheads way this year (AFC Sudbury away). In one month recently we had guilt edged chances to score to win every game and get 15 points from 15. We ended up with 3! Who’s fault is that? Managers? Players? Referees? I doubt on these occasions all of them to be fair. So is it unlucky that your centre forward misses or your keeper makes errors? I’ll let you decide and who knows!

They say things even out over a season, but I am not sure. Over a life time maybe. In summary, the standard of refereeing this year in the Ryman Premier is nothing short of poor to be honest. There are some excellent referees and linesmen of course and win or lose I have told them with positive feedback which I think is important. It is not rocket science to talk and explain to players and many still don’t. Sad for them and sad for the game. I have always said and always will that players make thousands more errors than refs so I want to place that statement that on record. But the many refs that are young in this league have zero “social savvy”. What is even worse is some are not even fit enough to keep up with play so much so me and jimmy genuinely reckon we are fitter. Against Kingstonian at home the ref didn’t leave the centre circle for 90 minutes! Sunday league stuff! I expect that from older refs, but not ones in their twenties and thirties! And my final point is they still haven’t worked out that more skilful players get fouled more! I thought everyone knew that!

I write this because I applaud all those managers that have been doing so for many many years in non-league and above. I salute you! What a tough job… and on top of your day job!

Thanks for reading

SS