Thanks to GenAI, up to 30% of working hours could be automated by 2030 in Europe and the United States and could rise to 45% by 2035!
Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Global People Analytics & HR Data Leader - People & Culture | Strategical People Analytics Design
?? The automation of work is the predominant driver of the need for occupational transitions by 2030
?? Demand for workers in STEM-related, healthcare, and other high-skill professions would rise while demand for occupations such as office workers, production workers, and customer service representatives would decline
?? Demand for technological and social and emotional skills could rise as demand for physical and manual and higher cognitive skills stabilizes.
?? Underlying this increase is higher demand for roles requiring empathy and leadership skills, which could rise by 20% and 14% in Europe and by 23% and 15% in the United States by 2030.
In Europe, by researchers estimates, a faster technology adoption scenario could be associated with productivity growth of roughly 2 to 3% per year, requiring some 12 million occupational transitions, or roughly double the pace of occupational shifts in the pre-pandemic period, according to a new interesting research published by McKinsey Global Institute using data ?? from surveys and analysis of labor markets in nine major economies in the European Union along with the United Kingdom.
?The varying automation adoption scenarios through 2030
Researchers noticed that as Europe looks ahead, automation, AI, and other trends present opportunities for higher productivity growth but with faster occupational transitions.
Business leaders and policy makers will face critical choices on how much to embrace technological change and investment while training and redeploying workers into the jobs of the future.
? 30% of work hours could become automated by 2030
?? Researchers discovered that with gen AI, 27% of the hours worked in Europe and 30% of hours worked in the United States today could be automated by 2030, based on a midpoint adoption scenario.
By 2035, these figures could rise to 45 percent in Europe and 48 percent in the United States, reflecting a continuing increase of automation potential in the coming decade.
?? The potential for automation varies greatly across occupations. With the integration of gen AI, STEM professionals in Europe could see automation of the percentage of hours worked more than double, from 13% to 27%.
Gen AI could also extend automation’s influence into areas requiring imagination, creativity, and critical judgment.
?Technological and social and emotional skills could increase by 2030
Researchers predict that demand for technological skills, by which we mean the number of hours worked for which technological skills are predominant, could see substantial growth (up to 30%) in Europe and in the United States.
?? Also researchers predict that demand for social and emotional skills could rise by 11% in Europe and by 14% in the United States
?? Demand for work in which higher cognitive skills are predominant would also decline slightly by 4% in Europe and 2% in the United States by 2030.
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?Skills of today vs skills of tomorrow in Europe and the US
Researchers found that skills that are both heavily used today and expected to significantly increase in demand include:
?Prediction of reskilling one-third of current workforce
Researchers found that to acquire the skills organizations need, companies have three main options:
??Retraining
?? Hiring
?? Contracting workers
Executives are looking at all three options, with retraining the most widely reported tactic planned to address the skills mismatch: on average, executives plan to retrain 32% of employees, followed by hiring (23%) and contracting (18%).
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This insightful and interesting research gives us a glimpse of what the future of work will look like in the years to come. Indeed, Automation and AI technologies have already changed the way people work and will continue to do so. As researchers predict, companies view retraining as essential to acquiring needed skills and adapting to the new work landscape.
Thank you ?? 麦肯锡 McKinsey Global Institute researchers team for these insightful findings: Eric Hazan Anu Madgavkar Michael Chui Sven Smit Dana Maor Gurneet Singh Dandona Roland Huyghues Despointes
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VP HR Shell Energy @ Shell | Talent Management | People Strategy | Business Partnering. (Views my own).
5 个月I worry about articles predicting job losses and making bold forecasts—they often end up as accurate as dart-throwing chimps. More interesting is how generative AI can enhance productivity and quality, potentially reversing skill-biased changes. Careers will be more fluid, with Gen AI and the energy transition reshaping business models rapidly. If we leverage Gen AI to improve job quality and boost social mobility, there’s a promising future where people of lower ability can access better-paid jobs. It’s worth reading David Autor’s thoughts on this https://www.noemamag.com/how-ai-could-help-rebuild-the-middle-class/
Human Resources Executive ? Translating People Strategy into Business Impact
5 个月Love this!
Head of Talent | HR Strategy | Talent Management | Workforce Transformation | Talent Acquisition & Optimisation
5 个月Very insightful research about the future of work Nicolas BEHBAHANI. To prepare organisation for this inevitable change, if not already, HR Function needs to adapt and evolve effectively to embrace the rise of GenAi and automation. I strongly believe Talent Acquisition and Organisation Development will play vital roles in shaping the organisation’s future workforce and overall business success. While TA must step up in attracting, sourcing, hiring and retaining the top talent with the right skills, OD focuses on upskilling and reskilling existing employees to meet the organisation’s evolving needs. By leveraging data and analytics for strategic workforce planning, both TA and OD can make informed decisions on our talent strategies aligning with organisational goals. Creating a culture of innovation and continuous learning is crucial while integrating GenAI into the workplace. Moreover, breaking silos among HR functions is the key to success. In order for organisation to transform, HR must first transform ourselves effectively. Thanks again for sharing!
Unleashing talent potential with real-time people analytics: Empowering HR & leaders to enhance employee experience, save time, and cultivate a culture of high performance and well-being through personal leadership
5 个月Nicolas BEHBAHANI Brilliant insights. I see GenAI as a development similar to those that have preceded us. As I write, it reminds me of the introduction of search engines. Where initially Yahoo and soon Google became the digital alternative for gathering information and data from books, magazines, and papers. It saved enormous amounts of time and broadened access to information for many. However, I see that the speed of digital development now amplifies the necessity for companies to act. This requires policy formation and the development of solid knowledge and skills from strategic to operational levels. To prevent every HR department from fixating on one form of GenAI, such as purchasing and following ChatGPT courses.
Co-Funder & MD of Farnam Group and a-Keep, PCC Level Coach.
5 个月Useful tips