..Thanks to this excessive heat Natty is getting off the proverbial mat..
July 2023:? In our May 25th IIR Featured Content(FC) Newsletter; we spoke on how natty was very depressed heading into this Summer season falling ~$.60 heading into June..? Where it seemed less & less likely that we would see a significant rebound in natty prices here Stateside..
However, with this excessive summer heat – which is now coast-to-coast –?
The Washington Post : Coast-to-coast heat dome sends temperatures soaring, threatens all-time records
Heat alerts affect over 100 million people in 15 states from the western U.S. to South Florida
A massive coast-to-coast heat dome is sprawled over the western and southern United States and is forecast to strengthen into the weekend. It’s generating soaring temperatures that are poised to approach all-time records in Phoenix, Las Vegas and California’s Central Valley and surpass 130 degrees in Death Valley, Calif., the heat capital of the world.
In many areas, the longevity of this ongoing heat wave is more remarkable than its intensity. Some locales have seen no relief from dangerous temperatures for over a month, and this heat wave shows no signs of relenting soon.
..natty gamely rallied “..off the proverbial mat..” nearly $.90 & almost clawed its way back to a $3 handle in late June.? Though it has since pulled back $.30?
..as we stepped into a somewhat cooler July forecast as well as the Independence Day Holidaze.??
July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped more than 3% on Monday on forecasts for slightly lower temperatures next week, although an increase in the daily amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a higher demand outlook limited losses. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.2 cents, or 3.4%, to $2.704 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 09:30 a.m. EDT (1330 GMT). "We definitely saw some extremely hot temperatures in parts of the country, but other parts of the country the rain seemed to cool things off. So we're seeing a little bit of a pullback," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 237 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, unchanged from Friday's forecast. The normal for this time of year is 197 CDDs.
Another reason was simply that fundamentals – even with high power burn – still ensure a good, healthy SnD balance heading into this Winter.
Gelber & Associates :? NG Daily _ EIA Reports Storage Injection of 49 Bcf for Week Ending July 7th
Ahead of storage release this morning, NYMEX futures traded relatively flat compared to the day previous. With this week’s storage data release, the EIA has revised their storage report released last week, changing the injection from 72 Bcf to 76 Bcf; this marks an unheard-of three revisions or reclassifications in three weeks. For this week, analyst storage predictions were relatively homogenous and quite close to the EIA’s reported injection of 49 Bcf/d. Given that storage was reported mainly in-line with market expectations, the data released should have a minimal impact on price movement today and tomorrow.?
..for we could be up against 4 Tcf in Storage..? Though still not very likely to face containment concerns..
Nonetheless we can still expect some fireworks in the form of volatility because of this aforementioned heat further driving increased natty demand..
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..Which could possibly see us re-visiting the $3.00 price level; which we are expecting to push through in Q4 of this year; while, continuing to drive towards $4 as we flip the calendar into 2024.
Though, expectations need to be tempered somewhat as there is the expectation for a Gas Market Super Build -- as nearly ~10 Bcf/d of Production could be making its way to the Gulf Coast with little new Demand coming on-line.? Although, another significant tranche of LNG Export will be coming (..2025 to 2028..)
East Daley specializes in identifying, understanding, and monitoring operational risk throughout the oil and gas value chain by diving deeply into the Plays to understand their nuanced dynamics…
Justin Carlson, “..illustrating the about face in the Haynesville as the basin (and producers in it) single handedly try to manage an all out rout on natural gas”
..though US Producers – who today are performing a nifty balancing act – will be contributing mightily to the US becoming the world’s LNG exporter by the end of this decade..
So one Mr. Heat Miser is indeed not only warming up the planet to record scorching temps but likely will be the precursor to driving up global natty prices as well…
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Seer/Sage/Shepherd
1 年New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Research Paper discusses the Outlook for Gas to 2030. ?? Link to paper: https://lnkd.in/e88YgM9U Key points: ?? The #energy crisis, catalysed by the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine, has disrupted the global #gas market. ?? This analysis out to #2030 assesses the impact of the crisis and considers whether this may lead to a fundamental change in the global gas market or whether it my just be a slight blip in the otherwise continued #growth in gas #demand and #supply. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/oxford-institute-for-energy-studies_a-new-global-gas-order-activity-7088103537724768256-tImw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Seer/Sage/Shepherd
1 年Gelber & Associates NatGas Daily commentary Forecasts Eclipse Temperature Expectations, Sparking Natural Gas?Rally NYMEX natural gas?futures along the forward curve?have seen price increases this morning. After a significant $0.12 move upward in the early hours, the market has slowed somewhat, with the last traded price for front-month futures at $2.59/MMBtu. A large -1.46 Bcf/d change in power burn today has been regarded by the market as relatively unimportant compared to new weather forecasts, whose updated predictions for heat across the country in the near-future surpassed already-lofty expectations. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories by the National Weather Service now affect 80 million people across the Lower 48. The NWS also re-emphasized the danger of the heat wave in the Southwest and South Central regions. Yesterday’s?Daily?Report mentioned further maintenance-related downside for production. So far, that appears to have come to fruition with a -0.36 Bcf/d decrease today, stemming mainly from the Northeast.
Seer/Sage/Shepherd
1 年Industrial Info Resources News reports that "Canada Says It's Ready To Be the Next LNG Player on the Global Stage Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Canada is primed to establish itself as the reliable energy supplier the world needs at a time when energy security is a paramount concern, the head of?LNG Canada?(Kitimat, British Columbia) said. Vancouver is hosting an annual conference on liquified natural gas (LNG). This year's conference was originally scheduled for St. Petersburg, Russia, but was relocated because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. LNG Canada is building an LNG export facility in British Columbia with support from a joint venture that includes?Shell Energy plc?(NYSE:SHEL) (London, England) and a handful of Asian energy corporations, such as PetroChina International (Beijing, China).? Natural gas will arrive at Kitimat through the 415-mile, US$5 billion CoastalLink pipeline being built by?TC Energy Corporation?(NYSE:TRP) (Calgary, Alberta).
I help 1) ?????????? ?????????????? improve profit through advanced crop weather analytics, and 2) ???????????????????????????? improve their long-range forecasts through application of the latest forecasting science.
1 年Thanks for the mention Geoffrey S Lakings. I've included the most recent three-week lead probabilistic temperature forecast indicating continued above-normal temperatures are likely in Texas. Unfortunately, the four, five, and six-week lead forecasts look the same for Texas. Do you want to learn how these weekly probabilistic forecasts differ from traditional weather forecasts? Are you curious about how we create reliable forecasts for conditions up to six weeks in advance? Start here: https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/06/27/long-range-weather-forecast/
Seer/Sage/Shepherd
1 年FX Empire indicates either the NatGas retracement has reached a bottom & we’re about to begin anew a bullish trend .. or we could find ourselves chopping around still looking for clear direction..