TGBA # 33: The Invisible Gorilla - Navigating the Blind Spots of Financial Decisions
... a lot of what happens in markets is driven by pure stupidity - or, rather, inattention, misinformation about fundamentals - Robert Shiller

TGBA # 33: The Invisible Gorilla - Navigating the Blind Spots of Financial Decisions

Welcome to the 33rd edition of #theGoalsBasedAdvisor Newsletter!

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In the dead of night, a Boston police officer, Kenny Conley, is in a fevered chase. His focus? Capturing a fleeing suspect. So concentrated was Conley on his quarry that he sprinted right past a brutal scene – an undercover colleague being assaulted by fellow officers. Conley later testified he saw nothing of the incident, a claim that led to his prosecution for perjury. This isn't just a story of police drama; it's a lesson in inattentional blindness, a psychological phenomenon illustrating how our attention, when funnelled into one task, can render us blind to unexpected yet conspicuous events. Conley was later exonerated.

This very blindness isn't just an abstract psychological curiosity; it was put to the test in a simulation similar to Conley's experience. Researchers orchestrated a situation where participants, focused on following someone, would run past a staged fight, like the assault Conley missed. The results were telling – a significant portion of the participants, engrossed in their task, failed to notice the "fight”. The experiment underscored how inattentional blindness could manifest in real-world scenarios, proving that Conley's oversight, far from being deliberate ignorance, might have been a brain trick.

Another seminal experiment that brings this phenomenon to life is the "Invisible Gorilla" study. Participants were asked to watch a video and count the number of passes between basketball players, completely missing a person in a gorilla suit strolling through the scene. This study highlights how our laser-focused attention can completely obscure significant elements in our field of vision – a stark reminder of our brain's selective filtering system.

Inattentional Blindness is real [Image: courtesy of Midjourney]

The Financial Gorillas We Miss

In the financial domain, inattentional blindness translates to overlooked risks or missed opportunities. A trader might be so focused on a set of stocks that they overlook an emerging trend in another sector. A financial advisor, deep in the nuances of one investment strategy, might miss regulatory changes that threaten their foundational premises. These "gorillas" in the financial market can represent both threats and opportunities – critical market shifts, emerging sectors, or innovative financial strategies that could redefine success.

Distraction can hurt you. [Image: courtesy of Midjourney]

Steering Clear of the Blind Spots

Awareness of inattentional blindness is the first step to mitigating its effects. Here’s how you can keep those financial gorillas in check:

1. Diversify Your Information: Just as diversification in investment reduces risk, diversifying your sources of information and areas of focus can mitigate the risk of missing out on crucial financial insights.

2. Embrace Team Discussions: Engage in collaborative analysis. Different perspectives can illuminate blind spots you didn't know existed, shedding light on overlooked aspects of your financial strategy.

3. Leverage Technology: Use financial analytics tools to your advantage. Algorithms and analytics can help highlight trends or anomalies that human attention might miss. At the very least, they are another set of eyes.

4. Routine Check-ups: Conduct comprehensive reviews periodically. Step back from the daily details and assess your strategies and portfolios from a broader perspective.

5. Mindful Focus: Replace multitasking with mindful focus, especially when handling critical tasks. In financial matters, where the stakes are high, ensuring your full, undistracted attention can mean the difference between catching a downfall before it happens or riding the wave of an unexpected opportunity.

In the complex and fast-paced world of finance, inattentional blindness underscores a vital truth: sometimes, what we don't see can have as much impact as what we do see. By recognizing our perceptual limitations and strategically planning to mitigate them, we can better navigate the financial landscape, ensuring that no gorilla, no matter how unexpected, goes unseen.

As author and journalist David McRaney says: "The truth, though, is you see only a small portion of your environment at any one moment. Your attention is like a spotlight, and only the illuminated portions of the world appear in your perception."

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Familiarity breeds contempt only when it breeds inattention. - George Santayana


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