Textile Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Electricity Pricing, Imran Khan Bail, Global Child Population, Ukraine & Russia Wheat Areas.

TOPLINE

• Pakistan’s high-value-added textile and apparel exports are seeing a strong recovery, returning to 2022 levels despite a 25% drop in average prices. This resurgence is partly due to the "Bangladesh effect," with global textile orders shifting to Pakistan following political instability in Bangladesh in 2024.
• Pakistan's crude oil imports rose by 30.98% in quantity and 16.80% in value during the first four months of FY25. This increase has led to higher local production of petroleum products and boosted exports. Crude oil imports reached 3.137 million tonnes, up from 2.395 million tonnes in the same period last year.
• The government rejected a proposal to cut electricity prices by Rs 4/unit by retiring Rs 1.8 trillion circular debt through bonds. While a 60 paisa reduction was achieved by ending five IPP contracts, the Rs 3.80/unit debt servicing surcharge remains, including Rs 390 billion owed to Chinese plants.
• The Islamabad High Court (IHC) granted bail to PTI founder Imran Khan in the Toshakhana case, requiring two surety bonds of Rs 1 million each. Khan is no longer wanted in any cases within Islamabad's jurisdiction. He is yet to be released as PTI prepares for the November 24 protest showdown in Islamabad.
• By 2050, Pakistan's child population is expected to reach 129 million, while India and China will have 350 million and 141 million children, respectively, as per UNICEF's State of the World's Children 2024 report.
• Ukraine's wheat harvest is expected to rise to 25 million tons in 2025, driven by an increased sowing area. However, Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat planting, opting for more profitable crops like peas and sunflowers. This could impact global wheat prices and inflation in major importing countries like Egypt.

AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS

• Daily Rates: Find the following rates on the hyperlinked titles: [Shipping Intelligence], [Pakistan Stock Exchange], [Kibor International Kibor Rates], [BRIndex100 & BR Sectoral Indices], [Activities of Karachi Port Trust, Port Qasim]
• Thar Coal-to-Gas Development: Sindh Coal Authority plans to develop Pakistan’s first coal-to-gas project in Thar, producing 100-200 mmcfd of syngas using $10 million coal gasification technology, despite it being outdated in Europe. Fauji Fertiliser also aims to set up a $1.6 billion integrated fertilizer plant, seeking Chinese funding for the venture. [PT]
• Two New Cobia Fish Species Discovered off Pakistan Coast: Two new species of cobia fish have been discovered off the coast of Pakistan, according to a study published in Zoologischer Anzeiger. Dr. Sher Khan Panhwar, who identified the species during a routine survey at Gwadar fish harbor, initially mistook them for black king cobia but noted distinct markings that revealed they were different species. [Dawn]
• Food Insecurity in Pakistan Drops to 7.9 Million in H2 2024: Food insecurity in Pakistan has decreased to 7.9 million people in the second half of 2024, down from 8 million earlier, thanks to improved food availability. The reduction follows the monsoon season and postharvest improvements, addressing issues caused by climate shocks and livelihood constraints. [Dawn]
• Pakistan's Textile Exports Recover Amid Global Shifts: Pakistan’s high-value-added textile and apparel exports are seeing a strong recovery, returning to 2022 levels despite a 25% drop in average prices. This resurgence is partly due to the "Bangladesh effect," with global textile orders shifting to Pakistan following political instability in Bangladesh in 2024. Other factors have also contributed to this growth, positioning Pakistan’s textile industry to benefit from the shift in global demand. [BR]
• Ahsan Iqbal Proposes GSP Plus Reform: Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal proposed aligning the GSP Plus program with the 5Es framework to drive export-led economic growth and ensure Pakistan's prosperity. Speaking at a conference on promoting good governance through trade, he emphasized that the GSP Plus program offers more than trade benefits; it is a roadmap for sustainable development and good governance, capable of unlocking Pakistan's growth potential and empowering citizens. [ET]
• Bolan Castings Increased Production by 50%: Rs 7,227 tons was the production of casting for tractor makers by Bolan Castings in fiscal year 2023-24, up 50% from production of 4,824 tons last year. [ET]
• Pakistan's Crude Oil Imports Rise by 31% in FY25: Pakistan's crude oil imports rose by 30.98% in quantity and 16.80% in value during the first four months of FY25. This increase has led to higher local production of petroleum products and boosted exports, which is expected to positively impact the country's economic growth for the current fiscal year. Crude oil imports reached 3.137 million tonnes, up from 2.395 million tonnes in the same period last year. [Dawn]

ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Neelum Jhelum Closure Impact: NEPRA disclosed that a Rs 60 billion financial benefit was not passed to Discos and K-Electric consumers due to the closure of the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project (969 MW) and debt re-profiling of Kanupp-2. Consequently, Discos revised their Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) request for the first quarter of FY 2024-25 from Rs 8.71 billion to Rs 6.477 billion. [BR]
• Electricity Price Cut Rejected: The government rejected a proposal to cut electricity prices by Rs 4/unit by retiring Rs 1.8 trillion circular debt through bonds, citing public debt concerns. While a 60 paisa reduction was achieved by ending five IPP contracts, the Rs 3.80/unit debt servicing surcharge remains, including Rs 390 billion owed to Chinese plants. [Dawn] [ET]
• Discos Improve Financial Performance: Pakistan’s state-run Power Distribution Companies (Discos) improved performance in the first quarter of FY 2024-25, reducing losses by Rs 69 billion and increasing bill collections to 91%. Circular debt growth slowed to Rs 11 billion, compared to Rs 301 billion last year, signaling better financial management in the power sector. [The News]
• NEPRA Warns on Winter Package: NEPRA has warned the Power Division that the winter electricity package could lead to higher fuel costs for consumers, with potential fuel charges exceeding Rs 26/unit. The package, aimed at boosting electricity consumption by offering reduced rates, may increase reliance on costly fuel sources, and the Power Division plans to import 34 LNG cargoes between December and February to meet energy needs. [PT]
• China-Pakistan Discuss Enhanced Geo-Scientific Cooperation: A delegation from the China Geological Survey (Xi’an Centre), led by Dr. Ma Zhong Ping, met with Momin Agha, Secretary of Pakistan's Petroleum Division, to discuss enhancing geo-scientific collaboration. This follows commitments made during Pakistan’s Prime Minister's June 2024 visit to China, where both nations expressed interest in strengthening cooperation in mining and geosciences. [BR]
• NEV Policy & Banking Growth: Pakistan introduced the NEV policy targeting 30% electric vehicles by 2030, with subsidies for motorcycles and three-wheelers. The PAMA raised concerns. Meanwhile, bank financing to the private sector rose to 44% of deposits by October 2024, up from 39% in September, as advances grew 11% and deposits fell 3%, improving the Advance-to-Deposit Ratio. This followed efforts to lift a stay on a 15% tax for banks not meeting a 50% financing target. [Dawn] [ET] [ET] [ET]
• Pakistani Banks Raise ADR to Avoid 15% Tax: To avoid a 15% tax at the end of 2024, Pakistani banks raised their Advance-to-Deposit Ratio (ADR) to 44%, increasing lending by Rs 1.1 trillion in October. This shift in strategy comes after record profits in 2023, as banks move away from government securities to meet new tax requirements. [Dawn]
• Corporate Result: Rs 10.7 billion was the profit posted by Sui Northern Gas Pipelines for nine months ended March 31, 2024, up 27.4% year-on-year. [ET]

PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY

• Imran Khan Granted Bail in Toshakhana Case: The Islamabad High Court (IHC) granted bail to PTI founder Imran Khan in the New Toshakhana case, requiring two surety bonds of Rs 1 million each. Khan is no longer wanted in any cases within Islamabad's jurisdiction, but the court warned him not to misuse the bail and to attend all trial court hearings unless exempted, with the possibility of bail revocation if he fails to cooperate. [Dawn] [ET] [The News]
• PPP Forms Committee to Address Issues with PML-N Government: The PPP, frustrated by perceived "disrespect" and unmet commitments from the PML-N, formed a high-level committee on Wednesday to address issues with the federal government. The committee, established by PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, is tasked with raising concerns with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government and will present its report at the next Central Executive Committee meeting. [Dawn]
• Azerbaijan Commits $3B Investment in Pakistan: Azerbaijan plans to invest up to $3 billion in Pakistan, focusing on key sectors to strengthen its economy, as announced by PM Shehbaz Sharif. During a cabinet meeting, he also highlighted ongoing efforts to enhance ties with Saudi Arabia, exploring opportunities in solar energy, mining, and IT. The PM urged the IT Ministry to develop skilled professionals to meet Gulf region demands. [PT]
• SBP Raises Rs 368 Billion in PIBs Auction: The State Bank of Pakistan raised Rs 367.95 billion in a PIBs auction, exceeding its Rs 300 billion target. Cut-off yields dropped slightly for 2-year (13.05%), 5-year (12.70%), and 10-year (12.838%) bonds, while the 3-year yield remained at 12.50%. This included Rs 29.65 billion from non-competitive bids and Rs 17.7 billion from short-selling. [MG]
• PSX Ends Winning Streak Amid Political & Economic Concerns: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) ended its five-day winning streak, despite hitting an intraday high of 96,711.33 points. The KSE 100 index surged by 854.67 points but later fell by 544.7 points, closing at 95,546.46, a loss of 310.21 points. This decline was driven by political instability, security concerns, rupee volatility, foreign outflows, and uncertainty around Pakistan's IMF deal. Trading volume surpassed one billion shares. [Dawn]
• Romina Alam Calls for Disaster Risk Finance: Romina Khurshid Alam, the PM's aide on climate change, urged integrating disaster risk finance into loss and damage efforts to boost resilience. She stressed the need for data-driven strategies to address climate impacts and protect vulnerable sectors like infrastructure and agriculture. [Dawn]
• Pakistan's Child Population to Reach 129M by 2050, UNICEF Warns: By 2050, Pakistan's child population is expected to reach 129 million, while India and China will have 350 million and 141 million children, respectively, as per UNICEF's State of the World's Children 2024 report. Nigeria’s child population is projected to be 132 million. UNICEF warns that children's futures are at risk without urgent action to safeguard their rights. The report was released on World Children's Day. [Dawn]
• Under CPEC, 38 Completed Projects Worth $25B: Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), 38 projects worth over $25 billion have been completed, with 23 ongoing projects totaling $2.1 billion. Completed projects include 17 in energy ($18 billion), 7 in infrastructure, 5 in Gwadar, and 9 in socio-economic development. The Planning Minister regularly reviews progress through meetings to address any obstacles in the implementation of CPEC projects. [BR]

INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT

• Developing Nations Push for Increased Climate Aid at COP29: At COP29, developing nations are urging wealthy countries to commit a clear financial figure for climate assistance. With just two days left, they demand an increase in the $100 billion annual pledge, aiming for $1.3 trillion to address climate impacts. Developing nations, which contribute least to global warming, emphasize the responsibility of historical polluters to support them. [Dawn]
• Storm in Washington State Causes Outages & Fatalities: A powerful storm hit Washington state on Wednesday, causing widespread power outages, travel disruptions, and at least one death. A woman was killed when a tree fell on a homeless encampment in Lynnwood, and two people were injured when a tree struck their trailer in Maple Valley. Schools across western Washington canceled or delayed classes due to the storm's impact. [Dawn]
• Ukraine Launches Storm Shadow Missiles into Russia: Ukraine launched British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, following a recent strike with US ATACMS missiles. The missile attacks were widely reported by Russian war correspondents on Telegram, though a Ukrainian spokesperson did not confirm the information. [BR] [Dawn]
• Bitcoin Hits Record High Amid Trump Talks: Bitcoin hit a record high above $94,000 following reports that Donald Trump's social media company, Truth Social, is in talks to acquire crypto trading firm Bakkt. This has fueled optimism about a crypto-friendly environment under his potential future administration. Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year, reaching $94,291, just shy of its record high of $94,378. [ET]
• Ukraine's Wheat Harvest to Rise, Russia Cuts Wheat Planting: Ukraine's wheat harvest is expected to rise to 25 million tons in 2025, driven by an increased sowing area. However, Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat planting, opting for more profitable crops like peas and sunflowers. This could impact global wheat prices and inflation in major importing countries like Egypt, complicating Russia's efforts to expand its agricultural exports and strengthen its international influence. [BR] [Reuters]

OPINION(S) & REMAINDERS

• IBEX Buys Back 3.56M Shares for $70M: IBEX Limited, a US-based tech firm, repurchased 3.56 million shares for $70 million from The Resource Group International (TRGI). TRG Pakistan, an associate of TRGI, disclosed this to the PSX, noting the deal includes $45 million in cash and $25 million in seller financing. [BR]
• CII Chairman Clarifies No Shariah Ruling Against VPNs: CII Chairman Dr. Raghib Naeemi clarified that a clerical error caused confusion over VPNs being against Shariah, stating no such ruling had been made. He emphasized the council's ongoing discussions on social media use in line with Islamic principles. [ET]
• Opinion: Unlocking the Potential of Pakistan’s Fisheries Sector - “The bureaucratic maze that exporters must navigate is a significant deterrent to growth. Consolidating licensing requirements into a single-window system can reduce delays and encourage investment. Moreover, stricter enforcement against illegal fishing practices such as the use of banned nets will help restore fish stocks and protect marine biodiversity.” - By Muhammad Junaid [BR]
• Opinion: Delivering Clean Air - “With almost 100 million people inhaling polluted air — 10 times more toxic than WHO standards — the scale of this crisis has become a health emergency. The rain will provide temporary respite as it will help improve visibility but not permanently bring pollution levels down to healthy standards.” - By Ali Tauqeer Sheikh [Dawn]
• Opinion: Sindh’s Coal Gasification Dream - “The Sindh Coal Authority is striving to woo private investment to finance the country’s first coal-to-gas project to initially produce 100 million cubic feet/day (mmcfd) to 200 mmscfd of synthetic gas (syngas) from coal in the Thar desert. According to him, the project will cost $10m. “We are bringing in 20-year-old coal gasification technology, which is being discarded in Europe. The new gasifiers would cost us double or triple this amount,” he added. A larger planned integrated fertilizer plant by Fauji Fertiliser, he said, would cost the company $1.6 billion for which the company is expecting funding from China.” - By Nasir Jamal [Dawn]