Texas Housing Market Predictions 2024

Texans have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for Texas’s housing market:

1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.

3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high-interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.

4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices were steady in the top metros across TX YoY, reaching $347K in September 2023. Experts predict home prices will rise because of the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.

5. New Home Construction Sales Will Increase: Texas is leading the nation in new home construction, with 22.5% of occupied housing units. There are more than 200,000 permits issued in 2023. Houston leads Texas in new home construction with over 23,000 permits issued in 2023.

6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.

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