Tesla's Robotaxi: A Journey into the Realm of Illusions

During a grand presentation , Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled the long-awaited Robotaxi or what he calls Cybercab. However, instead of groundbreaking innovation, the controversial entrepreneur again primarily presented empty promises. Here are ten reasons why Tesla's latest project could be doomed to failure:

1. Unrealistic Price: Tesla promises a Robotaxi for under $30,000. This price point seems completely unrealistic, considering that the currently cheapest Tesla model in Germany costs nearly 40,000 euros. Moreover, the futuristic design with gull-wing doors doesn't align with such a low price. The Robotaxi is likely to remain a niche product in the near future, and the missing economies of scale will not allow for this price point. A comparison with the Cybertruck is enlightening: Despite Musk's past claims of potential annual production of 250,000 to 300,000 units once manufacturing is fully ramped up (a figure not yet officially confirmed and likely to be reached only after several years), the Cybertruck's prices are significantly higher than initially announced in 2019: Rear-wheel drive base model: from $60,990 (approx. €56,200) All-wheel drive version: from $79,990 (approx. €73,700) Top "Cyberbeast" version: from $99,990 (approx. €91,200) These prices already include a US tax rebate and a hypothetical gas savings. If Tesla can't deliver on its promised price point for the Cybertruck, which has been in development for years, it's hard to believe they can achieve a sub-$30,000 price for a more technologically advanced Robotaxi.

2. Technological Doubts: Musk's insistence on a camera-based autonomous driving system without LiDAR is viewed critically by many industry experts. LiDAR is considered a key technology for higher levels of automation in autonomous driving. In the past, Musk described LiDAR as a "crutch" and "fool's errand," claiming that companies relying on it were "doomed." Despite this previous rejection, Tesla now seems to be using or testing the technology in some form, raising questions about the consistency of their technological strategy.

3. Unrealistic Timeline: Tesla plans to start production before 2027. However, given the current development stage of autonomous vehicles (Level 2 out of 5), it's highly unlikely that the necessary approvals will be in place by then. Musk has often announced overly optimistic timelines for autonomous driving in the past that were not met. He himself admitted that he tends to be overly optimistic about timelines.

4. Lack of Infrastructure and Charging Limitations: The showcased model is supposed to be charged inductively. However, the necessary infrastructure for this practically doesn't exist, which could delay the widespread and global rollout by decades. While inductive charging for electric vehicles is a promising technology with great potential, it's still several years away from broad market introduction. Moreover, inductive charging currently has significant limitations: Lower charging speed compared to conventional plug-in methods Reduced efficiency, leading to energy losses during the charging process Higher costs for both the vehicle-side and infrastructure-side equipment These factors not only pose challenges for the Robotaxi's practicality but also raise questions about its environmental impact and operating costs. Tesla's reliance on a charging technology that is not yet mature or widely available further undermines the feasibility of their ambitious rollout plans.

5. Regulatory Hurdles: A vehicle without a steering wheel, pedals, and side mirrors is currently not street-legal in either the USA or Europe. Tesla is presenting a concept that is far removed from current legislation.

6. Questionable Design: The gull-wing doors are seen as impractical and inefficient for mass production. Additionally, a two-door configuration is extremely impractical for a taxi and could significantly limit its usability.

7. Safety Concerns and Liability Issues: The track record of existing autonomous taxi services raises serious questions about the reliability and safety of such systems: In San Francisco, Cruise robotaxis blocked a street, presumably due to network problems, causing traffic disruptions. There have been accidents involving autonomous vehicles and emergency vehicles, including collisions with fire trucks. A pedestrian fatality involving an autonomous vehicle has already occurred, highlighting the potential risks to vulnerable road users. Reports of abrupt braking and unsafe cornering in autonomous vehicles, including Tesla's existing models with driver assistance features, raise doubts about the readiness of this technology for fully autonomous operation. These incidents demonstrate that even with extensive testing and development, autonomous vehicles still struggle with complex real-world scenarios. The unpredictability of urban environments, the potential for technical glitches, and the grave consequences of failures in autonomous systems pose significant challenges to the widespread adoption of robotaxis. Moreover, these safety issues raise critical questions about liability. In the event of accidents or malfunctions, it remains unclear who would be held responsible: the vehicle manufacturer, software developer, or the fleet operator. This legal uncertainty could pose significant risks for Tesla and potential Robotaxi operators.

8. Untested Business Model: Tesla's proposed business model, described as a combination of Airbnb and Uber, might seem innovative on the surface. However, it's yet to be seen if customers will accept this model, considering the various risks and costs involved. With no human oversight, the risk of interior damage or vandalism increases. The security of unattended vehicles becomes a significant concern, raising the possibility of theft. Constant use by different passengers could lead to faster wear and tear, potentially reducing the vehicle's lifespan and value. As mentioned earlier, unclear liability in case of accidents could deter potential operators. These factors could significantly impact the profitability and attractiveness of the Robotaxi program for individual owners and fleet operators alike. It's not just about owning a car anymore; you're essentially running a business with all the risks and implications that come with it—taxes, legal liability, and operational headaches.

9. Limited Demonstration: The presentation took place on a closed studio lot, not in real road traffic. There were reports that Tesla may have extensively digitally mapped the area beforehand, which significantly limits the meaningfulness of the demonstration.

10. Musk's Track Record: Elon Musk is known for making high-profile, ambitious promises that capture the public's imagination, but his track record shows a consistent pattern of missed deadlines and under-deliveries. From electric trucks to solar technology and futuristic transport systems, Musk's projects often fall short of his original projections. A prime example of this is the Tesla Semi, an all-electric semi-truck Musk first unveiled as a concept in November 2017. Promising to revolutionize freight transport with zero emissions and lower operating costs, Musk confidently projected that production would begin by 2019. However, the timeline has repeatedly shifted. As of now, full production is expected to begin in late 2025, with deliveries to external customers starting in early 2026. This marks a nearly 10-year delay from the original promise, raising questions about Tesla's ability to deliver on its ambitious plans. Another bold Musk initiative is the Tesla Solar Roof, a sleek alternative to traditional solar panels that combines aesthetic appeal with energy efficiency. When introduced, Musk set an ambitious goal of 1,000 installations per week. However, the reality has been far from that. As of March 2023, only around 3,000 to 5,000 roofs had been installed, a massive shortfall from the target. The average installation rate has been a mere 20 to 30 roofs per week, far too slow to meet even moderate demand. Tesla's solar deployments have also seen a worrying trend. After peaking in 2016, solar installations have steadily declined. In Q4 2023, Tesla's solar deployments were down 59% compared to the same period in 2022. Scaling production and installation has been particularly challenging, with issues ranging from the need for specialized skills to the lack of trained installers, not to mention the higher costs compared to conventional solar panels. These ongoing challenges suggest that the Solar Roof may never achieve the market penetration Tesla once envisioned. Perhaps the most ambitious of Musk's concepts was the Hyperloop, a high-speed transportation system designed to carry passengers in pressurized tubes at over 600 miles per hour. Despite initial excitement and significant investment, the project has not come to fruition. Hyperloop One (formerly Virgin Hyperloop), a company that took up the concept, shut down operations in December 2023. After raising approximately $450 million since 2014, the company sold off its assets and laid off its remaining workers. As of today, no full-scale Hyperloop systems exist anywhere in the world, making it another grand idea that has yet to materialize.

Conclusion: Tesla's Robotaxi presentation raises more questions than it answers. Instead of a revolutionary breakthrough in autonomous driving, we see another example of Elon Musk's talent for building castles in the air. The combination of unrealistic pricing, questionable technology choices, lack of infrastructure, and regulatory hurdles raises significant doubts about the project's feasibility. The stark contrast between the promised low price of the Robotaxi and the reality of the Cybertruck's pricing further undermines Tesla's credibility.

Moreover, the unresolved safety concerns, liability issues, and the untested business model add layers of complexity and risk to an already ambitious project. The gap between the current state of autonomous vehicle technology and the level of reliability required for widespread deployment of robotaxis seems vast and potentially unbridgeable in the near term.

Investors and consumers should view Tesla's grandiose promises with extreme skepticism and be aware that there's often a world of difference between vision and reality. While innovation in transportation is crucial, the Musk Robotaxi project appears to be more of a speculative venture than a realistic near-term solution to urban mobility challenges.