?? Tesla’s Autonomy Leap
In today's edition, I show Tesla's progress in advancing self-driving capabilities by using a neural network.
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Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) v12 marks a revolutionary shift in autonomous vehicle technology. Using a neural network , it processes data from only eight onboard cameras to help the car learn and adapt to a myriad of road situations autonomously — as opposed to the 20+ sensors and pre-set algorithms of the FSD technologies of the past.
As I remarked seven years ago :
Musk has forged a system wherein every human driver contributes to the generation of a rich dataset, nurturing the ecosystem of algorithms that empower a car to navigate autonomously.
Now, seven years later, all that data has allowed Tesla to build a highly adept neural network. Their Tesla Model Y is already the best-selling car globally, and the FSD technology looks to cement Tesla’s position as number one.
This has caused existential worry in the European automobile industry. BMW’s chief, Oliver Zipse, argues that the EV transition is going too quickly — not quickly enough for climate change, that is, but still enough to put BMW in a bind as it tries to manage both EVs and ICE vehicles. Zipse warned that the EU’s plans to ban ICE vehicles will mean that the car market “will not be done by European manufacturers”. On that, he could be right: VW has struggled to meet its EV sales targets in both Europe and China .
As Exponential View member Sam Butler-Sloss points out in his new report , within seven years, EVs could make up as much as 86% of global car sales. I suspect that process may go even quicker than that in many markets.
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The future value of the auto industry will be defined by the sophisticated software that governs them, such as Tesla’s FSD. Musk himself envisaged that “[a]lmost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI and robots, both vehicle and humanoid.” And Morgan Stanley agrees , bullishly setting its share price target at $400, up from $276 at the time of writing.
This scenario poses a Herculean challenge for incumbent manufacturers who now find themselves playing catch-up, not only in software development but also in powertrain technology, supply chains and EV manufacturing expertise. Tesla, along with China, have carved out a substantial market share, by taking advantage of economies of scale. The game-changer here is that EVs, with their software and associated charging infrastructure, are the pioneers in leveraging network effects in the automobile sector.?
Good luck, BMW.
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A CTO and futurist who demystifies the impact of emerging technologies and pursues their opportunity to transform product offerings and create new markets. I love hairy problems!
1 年Electric cars and FSD don't change very much at all in everything that is messed up with modern transport. The impact on CO2 emissions is, at best, 50% of private car transport. But worse than that, people who own EVs think of them as non-impacting so they drive them more - yes, the research does seem to show that too. So it's mostly virtue signaling. Getting rid of personal cars and moving to public transportation or removing transportation requirements (working from home, stopping the idea of international business travel) is much better. At the end of the rapid uptake of EVs we'll be, at best just, maybe a half of the personal transport emissions.
Helping Businesses Grow Revenue & Streamline Operations with 25+ Years of Expertise
1 年One of the key benefits of Tesla's FSD v12 is that it is more efficient and less expensive to produce. Tesla does not need to rely on expensive lidar sensors or other complex hardware, which makes the technology more accessible to consumers. Another advantage of Tesla's FSD v12 is that it is more adaptable to new and unexpected situations. The neural network is able to learn from new data and experiences, which means that the car can improve its performance over time.
One of the bets that elders have to make on mobility in a totally car oriented geographic and social society is which manufacturer will get full autonomous driving first and even more important get the legal backing to let people use it without a driving licence. My bet on the combination of these two conditions was tesla. Well we have now backed our bet with a Y LR…
Senior Project Management and Controls Consultant
1 年While the future is now and AI, why does Google maps still instruct me to turn left when the map clearly shows to turn right? I got a Toyota for its reliability and it's dynamic maps website states that to update the maps, we have to enroll in a paid service and if we discontinue the service, it shall reset the maps even if we paid for those. Ditto with electric cars, apps and features will require a premium. I think we should practice our old ways of driving based on milestones and locations rather than rely on technology. Technology is not free and shall always come for a price to pay.
Senior Project Management and Controls Consultant
1 年The highly adept neural network of Google still instructs me to turn left when the map illustrates me to turn right. This is a habitual occurrence. Toyota, known for its reliability expects users to pay for it's dynamic maps, if you decide to cease the service, it revokes the maps you own and resets to prehistoric factory settings. While the world is rushing to adopt AI into every aspect of life, I think it is fair to continue having a plan B, remember those bicycle rides of 90s without GPS, We remembered all the landmarks and milestones, land line numbers and also page numbers of good old yellow pages! I think these skills are still relevant and are to be transferred to the next generation. Best way forward is to strike a balance rather than relying on a particular feature or product.