Will Tesla Semi prove batteries can go the extra mile in heavy trucking?

Tesla had an important truck event in December but mainstream media had their eyes on other Tesla stories

News on Tesla lately has been dominated by the precipitous fall in the share price prompted by Elon Musk’s Twitter vanity project and the $40bn share sales to finance it and indications that its car business is seeing slowing demand. There have been many articles in the last fortnight highlighting the $7,500 incentives now being offered in the USA and that a shutdown of the Shanghai factory has been scheduled until the Chinese new year festivities are over in February.

There has been relatively little media discussion about Tesla's Class 8 truck (Tesla Semi) in early December coinciding with the handover of two vehicles to launch customer Pepsico.?To some extent thus may reflect the fact that the heavy truck rollout is a 'soft launch' involving only 100 deliveries to Pepsico in the coming year and a perception that this area may not be a strategic priority for the company or considered important by Wall Street analysts - the Cybertruck (pick-up truck) launch in coming year seems to be viewed as more important by many commentators. That said Tesla has proven to be a successful disruptor in light duty electric vehicles so far and there are many who are hoping that it may prove similarly disruptive in the heavy truck sector. Several truck OEMs have expressed doubts about the viability of battery electrification because of batteries low energy density. The exhibits below illustrate the sceptics argument. Lithium batteries have only 1% of the specific energy of hydrogen and 3% of gasoline translating into a significant potential headwind in heavier vehicles in terms of economy rate and charge time though what matters is the total vehicle package incl powertrain and chassis.

The argument against BEVs for long range, heavy duty mobility:

Below i lay out what's been revealed now about Tesla's heavy truck and what remains unclear. To summarise, we now know the range of the truck, the power of the dedicated EV chargers, some details on the powertrain configuration and some information to estimate the battery size. However several of the factors that will determine operator cost of ownership are unclear notably the weight of the truck(important for understanding available cargo payload)?and the cost of the vehicle. It’s also not clear how much capital Tesla will put behind development of the charging infrastructure and whether it will offer in due course a bundled offer including vehicle, servicing and power, for a price per mile. Pepsico will be purchasing the vehicles and chargers outright albeit with some help from public funds.

Background to the Tesla Semi - Pepsico has an intial order for 100 vehicles with some help from public funds

Tesla unveiled plans to launch a Class 8 truck in 2017 and originally targeted a launch in 2019 blaming the delays subsequently on battery constraints. On December 3 2022, it had a launch event at its Nevada Gigafactory where the keycards to two trucks were handed out to the customer. According to a subsequent report by Reuters PepsiCo hopes to take delivery of 100 heavy-duty Tesla Semis in 2023 with around 1/3 based at two sites in California followed by further deployments in central USA then East Coast. It will install four 750-kilowatt Tesla Inc charging units at both its locations in California and has received a $15.4 million state grant and $40,000 federal subsidy per vehicle. According to the report, United Parcel Service (UPS) and food delivery company Sysco Corp have also reserved trucks.?Pepsico will take delivery of the 500mi long range version but there are unconfirmed reports there may be a shorter range 300-350 mi version coming also.

Tesla unveiled a few performance details at event but mainly on drivetrain not battery

It claims:

500 mile range: One of the Tesla trucks went on a road trip from the Freemont factory to San Diego, a 9 hour journey, demonstrating the truck has 500 miles range in real world conditions pulling a total capacity of 81,000lbs (36.7 metric tons GVW, the maximum permitted for electric truck in US).

Speed and gadgets: The truck takes 20 seconds to hit 60mph when laden and 5 seconds when the Semi cab is unattached to a trailer helped by aerodynamic design and 1,000 volt powertrain. The vehicles drag coefficient is 0.36 half that of most trucks and similar to a Porsche sports car. There is a?central driving position as in Volta trucks and various mod cons seen in the cars such as autopilot functions and two 15 inch screens.?Many cabin and powertrain components are carried over from the S and X models.?

1MW mega-chargers: Tesla has developed a 1MW “Megacharger” for Semi (and probably next year's Cybertruck). This is c4x the power of its latest car superchargers. The chargers will be capable of being recharged to 70% capacity in 30 minutes giving 350 miles range. Solar panels will installed at some sites. Truck drivers must take 30-minute breaks every six hours in the USA. Typically they drive miles in 6 hours @60mph so the idea is that they recharge the truck sufficiently for the next leg of the journey during this enforced break.?

Some Battery details but not many: Elon Musk said on Twitter the economy of the truck will be 1.7kWh per mile which implies a battery size of at least 850kWh?based on the 500 miles range capability though there is usually a buffer so in practice the battery is likely to be 900-1,000kWh. Forbes Magazine claims rival electric trucks, although few today, have economy of 2.2-2.5kWh/mile. BEV cars consumer 1/4 to 1/3 kWh electricity per mile.?

WHAT WE DONT KNOW YET

No indication of vehicle weight ex cargo Tesla says the Semi will roughly have the same weight as a diesel truck, but diesel tractors have a wide range from 12,000 to 25,000 pounds. EV website Electrek reckons we can deduce from the load test Tesla mentioned that the vehicle weighs 27,000 pounds, but that’s unconfirmed at this point. That’s slightly above the top end of range for a diesel truck but it would still give the Tesla Semi the capacity to move about 45,000 pounds of cargo assuming an additional trailer weight of 10,000 pounds. The number should improve as battery technology improves but ED may not be heading significantly higher.

No indication what price Pepsi is paying.?In 2017, Tesla said the trucks would be $150,000, $180,000, and $200,000, depending on the model, but those prices are likely to have changed over the last five years. PepsiCo has declined to share details on the price of the trucks also. Competing vehicles sell for $230,000 to $250,000 but have smaller batteries so would be a surprise if the commercial price wasn't higher than 2017 indication.

No indication yet of Mega-charger rollout plans?

No indication yet of expected battery life?