Tesla: Robotaxis, Earned Media

According to Wikipedia, earned media is “content relating to a person or organization, which is published by a third party without any form of payment to the publisher.” ?After his 2016 elevation to the White House, President Donald Trump was described by some as the king of earned media, the value of which was estimated at between $2B-$5B.

Tesla (along with CEO Elon Musk) wears the earned media crown in the automotive industry.? Monday, April 8th, 2024, was an excellent example with news organizations obsessing over a range of Tesla-centric stories:

Tesla cancelling plans for the rumored $25,000 Model 2

Tesla doubling down on and moving the launch date forward for its robotaxi

Tesla depositions in a fatal Mountain View, Calif., crash revealing early versions of full-self-driving software following painted lines into a barrier

Tesla slashing prices on Model Y and Model 3

Tesla refusing to accept Fisker Ocean trade-ins

Tesla Cybertrucks malfunctioning

Tesla superchargers blocked by union efforts in Sweden

Lawsuit claiming Tesla violated California labor laws

It’s just another day in the automotive world managed and manipulated by Tesla.? Some of the news items – like the Model 2 cancellation rumors – moved the markets last week even as Musk did his best to dismiss them as sourced from short sellers.? The biggest news was the robotaxi announcement.? It was a reminder of Elon Musk’s words, quoted by Walter Isaacson in his biography: “Elon Musk.”

“This will be a historically mega-revolutionary product,” (Musk) said.? “It will transform everything.? This is the product that makes Tesla a ten trillion company.? People will be talking about this moment in a hundred years.”

“Our main focus has to be volume,” Musk said.? “There is no amount that we could possibly build that will be enough.”

“This vehicle must be designed as a clean robotaxi.? We’re going to take that risk.? It’s my fault if it (f’s) up.? But we are not going to design some sort of amphibian frog that’s a halfway car.? We are all in on autonomy.”

Musk’s ravings – from a meeting with senior Tesla executives in 2022 – suggest a genuine seriousness regarding autonomous vehicle operation.? The latest version of full-self-driving, access to which requires owner candidates to demonstrate exemplary driving behavior reflected in a Tesla-generated driver score, has garnered its own share of online eyeballs as Tesla fans and foes acknowledge the ongoing progress in FSD’s evolution.? The expression “human-like” driving appears in many reviews.

Behind the potential leap into the realm of robotaxis is Tesla’s unique data gathering advantage.? Unlike nearly every single other auto maker in the industry, Tesla has privileged access to the forward facing camera data created by its vehicles.

Whether gathering forward facing camera data during “disengagement” events or scooping up data in known driving trouble spots, Tesla is able to build its machine learning and AI models from the largest and fastest growing data set in the industry.? In fact, Tesla has the further advantage of being able to arbitrage its data transmissions via either Wi-Fi or cellular connections.

Most if not all competing auto makers have insufficient consent protocols in place, to say nothing of the necessary software, to gather, compress, and transmit this type of data.? In order to compete, every other auto maker is struggling to overcome this data collection and transmission barrier and the correlated customer consent required to enable it.

Speaking in 2022, it sounded like Musk and Tesla intend to create a purpose-built robotaxi.? More than any other auto maker, Tesla is positioned to deliver on that value proposition.

If Tesla were to bring a robotaxi to market on an existing mass market vehicle platform that complies with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards – i.e. steering wheel, accelerator and brake pedals, etc. – there are few markets outside of California or New York City with rules in place to stop it.? Musk’s vision, though, suggests a steering wheel and pedal-less concept that will require exemptions. That is a definite no go for 2024.

A robotaxi vehicle launch in August of 2024, the inferred introduction date agreed on by most analysts and journalists, appears unlikely.? A repurposing or enabling of existing vehicles seems more likely and falls in line with the vision of adding value to existing Teslas even as the prices of new ones are being reduced.

There are some elements not yet in place that would likely make a car sharing/robotaxi vision more likely – such as depots where cars could be cleaned and disinfected between rides.? A launch of robotaxi services would also likely require an app strategy either coming directly from Tesla or in cooperation with Uber or Lyft.

Tesla already has warm relations with Uber and Lyft and numerous other global ride hailing operators.? Depending on the business model and revenue share, it is likely they’d be prepared to participate in Tesla’s robotaxi scheme.? In the interest of maintaining it’s high level of earned media, Tesla has us all on the edge of our seats.? Don’t hold your breath.

Deep Dive Teardown of the Tesla FSD Computer HW4.0 - https://library.techinsights.com/search/analysis-view/DDT-2307-807#pdfId=f8f1eaecc5f545a1b2a24966ee68ca99 - TechInsights

Vehicle Subscriptions Services Must Take 3 Critical Steps for Shared Model Transition - https://library.techinsights.com/search/analysis-view/ACM-2307-801#pdfId=08a58de7b9204ad997f6f9c9ddfe6279 - TechInsights

Global OEM Electric Vehicle Strategies: Divergence in Competing with China - https://library.techinsights.com/search/analysis-view/EVS-2403-802#pdfId=8a7f4ea55fbb41f98d808167cad01f52 - TechInsights

Global Car Sharing Market Overview - https://library.techinsights.com/search/analysis-view/ACM-2312-802 - TechInsights