Territories of the Understandable and the Observable

The set of all observable phenomena, both directly through our senses and indirectly through mechanisms that make some kind of valid record representing them, seems to encompass what we are able to understand, although obviously not everything observable is understandable. What we understand is what we can explain or predict, or both at the same time. If we can neither explain nor predict something, we are faced with something we observe but do not understand how it occurs. Time sneaks into what we have been saying so far because explaining normally points towards what has already happened; and predicting towards what could happen in the future.

These distinctions allow us to group observable phenomena into four "territories," although I'm not sure if these territories are "MECE": Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive. Therefore, this proposed classification of observable phenomena is a theoretical attempt, but not a theory in itself. The following table outlines the proposed classification:

The Mechanistic

This is the territory of what is technically and intellectually mastered, in general. For example, when we plug in the coffee maker to make coffee, we press a button and very hot water begins to circulate from a reservoir to soak the ground coffee, so that it permeates on its way to the jug where it will accumulate (then we take a cup and serve ourselves a steaming coffee). In this territory, all phenomena are explainable and predictable. This does not imply that things always work as we expect. One day there may be a power outage and we cannot use the coffee maker, but we drink our coffee strained; or we forgot to buy coffee and end up going to have it at a bakery. Let's say then that this is the territory of everyday life and that somehow we would like everything to be like this: understandable, safe, easy. But... only a part of the phenomena are like this and, to top it off, those that are are not always so. There are other types of phenomena.

The Contingent

In this territory, we are faced with the influences of variables that we do not control and, therefore, we are at the mercy of surprises, unpredictable things, both good and bad; but once they occur we can explain why they happen and understand them. Continuing with the example of the electric coffee maker, when there is an unexpected power cut we put our "contingency plan" into practice: we heat the water with the gas stove in a pot, set up the cloth filter on a special stand that holds it, pour the ground coffee into the pot so that the water is impregnated and then pour the contents of the pot into the filter without forgetting to place a jug underneath where the coffee falls. Contingencies are also part of everyday life, although we find it hard to accept them. We can distinguish that one context is better than another when the contingencies that occur in it bring many more pleasant surprises than unpleasant ones. The basic condition to be better prepared for the contingent is to accept that it occurs and to choose the context where the probability of good surprises is greater than that of bad ones.

The Stochastic or Ergodic

In this territory, we find the recurrent, what in some way responds to patterns that with different variations, some large and others small, allow us to estimate what can happen; that is, they are less exact predictions than those of the Mechanistic terrain, but in many cases good enough for life to go quite well. Continuing with the same example, there are supermarkets where there is a higher probability of finding the brand of coffee I like the most. It is to one of those that I go when the package of coffee I have at home is about to run out. In the curve that serves to understand the distribution of probabilities of finding the coffee I like, there are on the left supermarkets where they almost never sell that brand; in the middle there are some where sometimes there is and sometimes there is not; and on the right are those that generally have that coffee, but at the extreme right are those that always have it, but are very expensive and then I decide to "operate" with those where 80% of the time I am going to find the ground coffee I like.

The Super Random

This mysterious territory of the observable is where inexplicable phenomena appear out of nowhere. It is the zone of miracles, of what happens without an identifiable cause. Not only is the occurrence inexplicable, it is also unpredictable. For example, while having a coffee, an idea occurs to me that I don't know how it came about and that idea over time becomes an enterprise with which I become a millionaire. Certainly, ideas don't make anyone a millionaire, unless they are turned into reality; but they are the sparks that provoke the phenomenon. Some ideas are Mechanistic; others Contingent; others Stochastic or Probabilistic; but others are mysteriously unique, with no clarity about where they come from and perhaps they are the most disruptive and promising. I imagine that the cause/effect mechanism, solidly established in our minds, is the main obstacle to accepting, as an act of faith, that there is that terrain where things can happen that have no cause. Would that act of acceptance be something that would increase the probability of the Super Random happening? In theory no, but who knows...

Distinguishing the territory in which something occurs can guide us on the most suitable tools to understand what we observe happening. There are borders between the territories where complex events have components of 2, 3, or even all 4 territories. I suspect that the conversation about Contingency that I had with ChatGPT a few days ago, which served as the basis for this reflection, was one of those complex events.