Territories that can greatly benefit from Starlink capacity

Over 5 thousand Starlink satellites orbiting Earth offers substantial capacity to many regions but the opportunity for the Patagonia region in Argentina and Chile, New Zealand and southern Australia really stand out for five reasons:

1. Visible Satellites: The number of Starlink satellites in line of sight (visible) peaks at the 35-55 degree latitude range (north & south). Over 25 satellites are always visible for the current Starlink system.
2. Population Density: The population count and density is low in the south compared to same latitudes in the northern hemisphere, resulting in higher supply-demand ratios.
3. GEO Exclusion Angles: In high (covered) S/N latitudes, the Starlink orchestration system has more “degrees of freedom” to avoid the GEO arc exclusion zone while simultaneously using high look angles for user terminals, driving improved spectral efficiency and link latency.
4. Moderate to high ARPU levels: High density of capacity supply meets moderate disposable income levels in the Chilean and Argentine southern territories; and high ARPU for Australia and NZ.
5. Satcom-friendly enterprise verticals: These regions in the southern hemisphere host geographic spots of satcom-hungry verticals including MNO backhaul, maritime, energy, mining, and aero.

Bandwidth supply & demand

A factual assessment indicates that SpaceX's Starlink constellation can already alleviate or solve many of the connectivity needs in the mentioned regions, wherever areas are underserved by terrestrial technologies. Based on NCAT4 supply-demand calculations, over 10% of the the inhabitants in such low density areas could be served by the Starlink constellation alone.

Simulation Assumptions:

• Target: Rural and suburban areas with a population density between 0.1 and 300 inhabitants per square kilometer
• Market Capture: 10% of inhabitants in such areas
• Broadband Service Plan: 100/10 Mbps with 40-to-1 bandwidth oversubscription.

Argentina & Chile

Patagonia is a region encompassing the vast southernmost tip of South America, shared by Argentina and Chile, with the Andes Mountains as its dividing line. This region can greatly benefit from LEO broadband capacity (not just Starlink) not only because of its low population (coupled with moderate income levels) in relation to the capacity supply but also because the region exhibits spots of economic activity in key satellite verticals including MNO backhaul, oil and gas, mining, and fishing.

Australia & New Zealand

New Zealand and the southernmost region of Australia are characterized by high income levels and important flight and maritime routes.

Tasmania, located 240 kilometers (150 miles) to the south of the Australian mainland, is the 26th-largest island in the world but also the least populous Australian state, with around 570 thousand residents.

The importance of granular analytics

Simulation results for Argentina, Chile, Australia and New Zealand differ sharply from a recent NSR assessment conducted for Nigeria, where less than 0.25% of the residents could be served for a similar service plan, highlighting the importance of conducting non-GEO bandwidth supply-demand analysis granularly based on system metrics and country area.

As described in the NSR NCAT white paper, educated bandwidth distributors, integrators, and major end users (telco /MNO, defense, maritime, aero, etc.) leverage data analytics at local levels; allowing non-GEO bandwidth stakeholders to maximize their bargaining power when negotiating bandwidth deals.

NCAT White paper highlights:

• While the amount of IP bandwidth produced by mega-constellations is enormous, not all is usable .. or sufficient.
• Capacity & addressability: The combination of these two aspects leads to highly localized supply-demand dynamics and even buy/sell opportunities that –both– satellite operators and educated users or distributors could leverage with various degrees of bargaining power.
• The addressable fixed-broadband population is distributed across a surface area that represents only 12.5% of the world surface.
• Over 75% of the globally addressable rural population for LEOs resides within 35 degrees of latitude north and south of the Equator. However, leading LEO-HTS operators deploy the highest capacity density (Gbps proportionally overhead) above 35 degrees N/S to be able to serve high-ARPU regions in the northern hemisphere.
• Business-case and architectural facets will mold the multi-orbit, multi-band satellite paradigm.
• Multi-orbit operation will involve many service flavors and sweet spots that the industry will collectively find and develop solutions for, but two applications are driving the initial validation steps: Defense and mobility.
• GEO-HTS systems (large to small GEOs) are ideally suited for capacity complementation, not only around hot spots such as airports but also in regions where LEOs simultaneously exhibit lower density of overhead capacity and tighter interference-avoidance constraints.
• Commercial distribution partnerships and hybrid technologies for distribution will also come into play to drive both technical and commercial pipeline efficiencies.
• LEOs are not precluded from being able to serve all covered regions and applications, but architectural and business case aspects will encourage both Non-GEO and GEO players to gradually become selective in 'what battles to fight'.

Download the NSR White Paper “Capabilities and Limitations of Non-GEO Constellations”

NSR’s Non–GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit 4.0 (NCAT4) is an assembly of quantitative models that x-ray and benchmark LEO and MEO satellite constellations. The latest edition of NSR’s industry-leading benchmarking toolset has moved online bringing expanded capabilities and processing power. Users can assess the impact of constellations dynamically, across both space and time domains, and with finer resolution and speed than previous spreadsheet versions.