Territorial Disputes in South China Sea (SCS) - Is India being used as a scapegoat  – Critical Analysis

Territorial Disputes in South China Sea (SCS) - Is India being used as a scapegoat – Critical Analysis

Introduction

The South China Sea (SCS) spread over an area of 3.477 million sq km, is one of the most resource-rich marine areas in the world. It has known reserves of 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil,?and is home to diverse ecosystems?with 3,000 species of fish and 600 species of coral reef, a variety of mangrove and seagrass species, and turtles and seabirds that use the islands for resting, breeding, and wintering. The waters are bordered by China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines.

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most disputed sea in the world, with contested maritime claims by Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and China. The geographical location of South China Sea with its proximity with the Strait of Malacca in the west and Pacific Ocean in the East makes it an area of interest as an important water way not only for the regional states but also the hegemonic western states and United States in particular.

The claims to the territory of SCS dates back to the Han Dynasty (206 BC-220 CE) Ming Dynasty (1403-1644) during which the water ways under consideration were regulated under the tributary system of the Chinese Empire.?Over the years China has grown sufficient economic power and has now been exercising its national interests using soft power. The Asia Pacific states which have been used by the west and mainly by US to contain China in the region. Various alliances are being formed for this containment purpose. Quadrilateral (Quad) alliance is one such case where US, India, Japan and Australia came on board to put pressure on China. The dialogue was initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister?Shinzo Abe , with the support of U.S. Vice President?Dick Cheney , Australian Prime Minister?John Howard , and Indian Prime Minister?Manmohan Singh . Initially this alliance emphasized upon naval and maritime cooperation and increase in freedom of navigation missions in the SCS to counter the Chinese claims. Similarly, renaming of Pacific Command of US Navy to Indo-Pacific Command also signifies the American aims and interests in the region towards countering the Chinese naval expansion in the region. Keeping in view the poor response / reluctance from Japan and India this alliance could not bring fruitful results. Recently in September 2021 a new alliance emerged with the name “AUKUS” between Australia, UK and US. AUKUS, is a trilateral security pact?between Australia, the UK?and the United States, announced on 15 September 2021 for the?Indo-Pacific ?region. Under this pact, the US and the UK will help Australia to acquire?nuclear-powered submarines .?This pact also includes cooperation on "cyber capabilities ,?artificial intelligence ,?quantum technologies ?and additional undersea capabilities".?Under the pact, Australia will acquire new long-range strike capabilities for its air force, navy and army.?The pact will focus on military capability, separating it from the?Five Eyes ?intelligence-sharing alliance that also includes New Zealand and Canada.

After two days of announcement of this pact, on 17 September 2021, France, which is an ally of the three countries in the pact, recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US; French foreign minister?Jean-Yves Le Drian ?called the pact a "stab in the back". France was in shock on Australia's cancellation of a?French–Australian submarine deal ?worth €56?billion (US$ 90?billion) without any notice,?ending efforts to develop a deeper strategic partnership between France and Australia. This was a big blow for France and point of great concern for China. Lets examine what actually is the dispute in South China Sea (SCS). Firstly, we need to understand what does the International law says.?

What is UNCLOS ?

Law of the Seas is defined as “constitution for the oceans” is a set of legal framework aimed to codify the international rules and laws regarding to the sovereignty of internal waters, territorial waters, sea lanes and ocean resources. The Law of the Seas is codified in the United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) in 1982 and came into force in 1994 after being ratified by more than 150 states.?

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UNCLOS stipulates legal regimes for all maritime zones of coastal States, including internal waters, territorial sea and contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.

States agree upon what agreed in UNCLOS, including the maritime zones beyond national jurisdiction, including High seas and the international sea bed area (seabed and subsoil as well as mineral resources as common heritage of mankind). Core provisions of UNCLOS contain legal status of exclusive economic zones (EEZ), continental shelf, regime of islands, artificial structures and cooperation for protection of marine environment, conservation and management of marine resources.

Under the light of the provisions of UNCLOS on EEZ and continental shelf, all activities of exploring and exploiting natural resources in EEZ and continental shelf of a coastal State are subject to permit of the coastal State and those activities carried out without express consent of the coastal State are illegal. UNCLOS provides that, within the EEZ of a coastal State, extending up to 200 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured (Article 57), the coastal State has sovereign rights to the natural resources of the waters suprajacent to the sea-bed and of the sea-bed and its subsoil; sovereign rights to the economic exploitation and exploration of the zone; jurisdiction to marine scientific research and protection and preservation of the marine environment (Article 56).

In July 2016, the?Permanent Court of Arbitration ?(PCA), an internationally agreed arbitration tribunal sitting in the Hague and constituted under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruled comprehensively against the Peoples Republic of China's South China Sea maritime claims in?Philippines v. China.?This tribunal did not rule on the ownership of the islands?or demarcate maritime boundaries. However, both mainland China and Taiwan stated that they did not recognize the tribunal and insisted that the matter should be resolved through bilateral negotiations with other claimants.?

On 25 July 2020 Australia rejected China's claims to the South China Sea and filed a statement with the United Nations that said: "Australia rejects any claims to internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone and continental shelf based on such baselines," and there is "no legal basis" to draw the nine-dash line around the Four Sha archipelagos, Paracel and Spratly Islands or low-tide maritime zones. They encourage the claimants to resolve their disputes peacefully. On 17 September 2020, France, Germany and the UK issued a joint?note verbale?recognizing the PCA ruling and challenging Chinese claims.?

Cambodia has backed China over the dispute in ASEAN meetings, preventing consensus over unified ASEAN action.?Anti-Vietnamese sentiment due to?Vietnam's conquest of previously Cambodian lands , giving the Vietnamese a privileged status and encouragement of Vietnamese settlers?in Cambodia during French colonial rule, and the occupation of Cambodia?after the ousting of the?Khmer Rouge ?has led to anti-Vietnamese feelings against ethnic Vietnamese in Cambodia and against Vietnam, and in turn has led to pro-China sentiment among the Cambodian government and the Cambodian opposition, including in the South China Sea.

India?says that the South China Sea was "part of global commons and India has an abiding interest in peace and stability in the region. We firmly stand for the?freedom of navigation ?and overflight and unimpeded lawful commerce in these?international waterways , in accordance with international law, notably?UNCLOS ." This stance is seen as largely backing the US position. US needed a player in the region who can fight for USA, UK and Australia in the disputed zone and by giving such a statement India become frontline State in the region. Thereafter world has seen change of name to Indo-Pacific command from Pacific command.??

Since the start of this dispute, Indonesia has repeatedly asserted its position as a non-claimant state in the South China Sea dispute,?and often positioned itself as an "honest broker".?However, parts of China's??claimed?nine-dash line ?overlap Indonesia's exclusive economic zone?near the?Natuna islands . Although China has acknowledged Indonesia's sovereignty over the Natuna islands,?the PRC has argued that the waters around the Natuna islands are Chinese "traditional fishing grounds".

Laos?has supported China by refusing to accept the?Permanent Court of Arbitration ?ruling on China's sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. Singapore has reiterated that it is not a claimant state in the South China Sea dispute and has offered to play a neutral role in being a constructive conduit for dialogue among the claimant states. Thailand as one of the member of?ASEAN ?played a coordinating role in facilitating China and ASEAN members involved in the dispute in hope of reaching peaceful resolution. Japan is located in east China Sea approx. 3000 KMs from China borders and practically not counted in SCS dispute but since US holds bases there so its importance is understood. Japan has not shown eagerness to actively involved in the dispute. Taiwan is approx. 100 miles from China border and falls within laid EEZ limit of 200 nms. stated in UNCLOS. It is very clear that the PRC still maintains that "there is only one China in the world" and "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China".?

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What is Quad ?

The?Quadrilateral Security Dialogue?(QSD, also known as the?Quad?or?QUAD) is a strategic dialogue between the?USA,?India, Japan?and?Australia?that is maintained by talks between member countries. In nutshell Quad is?a grouping of India, the USA, Australia and Japan?that aims to safeguard the interests of democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific region and address global challenges.

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Over the years, the Quad’s diplomacy has waxed and waned. It is a loose grouping rather than a formal alliance. Japan initially emphasized the democratic identity of the four nations, whereas India seemed more comfortable emphasizing functional cooperation. Australian leaders have been reluctant about creating the impression that the group is a formal alliance. For better understanding lets read their recent joint statements;?Alliance joint statement in march 2021 by Quad:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/12/quad-leaders-joint-statement-the-spirit-of-the-quad/

Joint statement by Quad in September 2021 clearly shows role of QUAD:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/joint-statement-from-quad-leaders/

What is AUKUS: The basics

According to BBC news; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58659627

  • AUKUS is a security pact between Australia, the US and UK. It allows for greater sharing of intelligence, but crucially it gives Australia secret technology to build nuclear-powered submarines, though not equipped with nuclear weapons
  • Aim of?AUKUS is widely seen as a response to the growing power of China, and an effort to counter its influence in the contested South China Sea
  • Why has it angered France??Australia cancelled a $37bn (£27bn) deal with a French company building diesel-powered submarines, and, what's more, France - a traditional Western ally - found out about the new pact only a few hours before the public announcement

Analysts have described AUKUS as probably the most significant security arrangement between the three nations since World War II. But the pact angered the French government, with Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian describing it as a "stab in the back". France considers the Asia-Pacific region to be of key strategic and economic importance, with 1.65 million French citizens on islands including La Réunion, New Caledonia, Mayotte and French Polynesia. Why there was a need for new alliance, for this we need to understand background first.

Background - Why AUKUS now & why not QUAD ?

Although Quad is still intact but it is more of a strategic forum for cooperation among four nation states effected by China in South China Sea. USA changed name of pacific command to Indo-Pacific command because they wanted to include India as a frontline state against China’s rise in South China Sea (SCS) in particular and in the world as a whole. For pitching both countries (China-India) against each other there was requirement of a strong motive therefore fundamentalist government in India was created and supported which is led by an extremist organisation RSS. Mr Narandra Modi was chosen and given a template which can create the much needed results for the west. Apparently a template was approved in principle by Mr Modi, clearly stating that if he wants to win second term of elections in 2019 he needs to do something in return. Everything was pre planned for the biggest rigging in Indian history. For this big election victory was needed and also there was a need to bring Indian army on board because without their support it was not possible to rig at that big a level. Indian army had been responsible for the conduct of election within India so bringing them on board was not much of a issue. Indian Chief of the Army Staff at the time who was retiring in December 2019 was shown carrot for supporting this election venture in exchange of his unconditional help in winning elections. He was promised to be appointed as first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) who would be in charge of all three services of Indian armed forces on his retirement from present appointments of Indian army chief and Chairman of the chiefs of Staff Committee. Later in the year 2019 world saw the same as planned. General?Bipin Rawat?(born 16 March 1958), a four star general?of the Indian army made history by becoming the first and current?Chief of Defence Staff ?(CDS) of India. On 30 December 2019, he was appointed as the first CDS of India and assumed office from 1 January 2020.?Prior to taking over as the CDS, he served as?Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee ?as well as?26th Chief of Army Staff ?of the army.

Election results were announced on 23 may 2019. Mr Modi’s party received 37.36% of the vote, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 general election and won 303 seats, further increasing its substantial majority.?In addition, the BJP-led?National Democratic Alliance ?(NDA) won 353 seats.?The?Indian National Congress ?won 52 seats, failing to get 10% of the seats needed to claim the post of Leader of Opposition, and the Congress-led?United Progressive Alliance ?won 91. Other parties and their alliances won 98 seats.?

On observing all this in open day light over 150 veterans, including eight former Service chiefs wrote a letter to the President and Supreme Commander of the Armed forces, Ram Nath Kovind, urging him to intervene against 'politicisation' of the military in the Lok Sabha elections. You can read full story :

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/over-150-veterans-write-to-president-over-politicisation-of-armed-forces/article26815314.ece ?

I would like to share few more news stories about 2019 election fraud in India:

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/20-lakh-security-personnel-deployed-lok-sabha-polls-exercise-bigger-army-operation-brasstacks-1530526-2019-05-20

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-electiomns-2019-election-commission-says-cant-use-armed-forces-for-campaign-2005566 ?

https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/indias-election-ghosts-in-the-machine/

https://theprint.in/india/governance/every-indian-election-since-2014-has-been-rigged-claims-masked-us-based-cyber-expert/181089/

After winning elections in may 2019, now was the time for delivery. On 5 August 2019, the Union Government revoked the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir under the Article 370 through a Presidential Order, and made the entire Constitution of India applicable to the state. This implied that the Article 35A stood abolished. This article?gave special status to?Jammu and Kashmir , a region located in the northern part of Indian subcontinent?which was administered by India as a disputed State from 1954 to 31 October 2019, conferring it with the power to have a separate constitution, a state flag and autonomy over the internal administration of the state.?The Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir is part of the larger region of Kashmir?which has been a subject of dispute since 1947 between India, Pakistan and China. By annexing disputed territory India unilaterally decided the dispute and mapped it as Indian territory which created a chaos within Chinese and Pakistan. Six decades ago, India and China went to war over a border dispute in the same region that ended with humiliating defeat for India and an uneasy truce in 1962. While no international border has ever officially been negotiated along the forbidding stretch of land high in the Himalayas that divides the two nations, the truce established a?2,100-mile-long?Line of Actual Control (LAC). India also holds few more agreements on the same LAC with China but all were ignored.

This was a perfect stroke as tensions started with both parties involved in Kashmir region, Pakistan and China. India started massive defence construction in the region and started talking about surgical strike in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and also start asserting claims for Pakistan side of Kashmir. Aim was to stop Chinas rise by disturbing China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through northern Pakistan adjacent to Kashmir, this area is quite near from Indian occupied disputed region of Ladakh. By revoking article 370 and annexing disputed region both China and Pakistan got involved automatically. China after assessment of the situation understood immediately intension of India and responded with heavy handedness in May 2020. Tensions started on LAC and what happened thereafter whole world saw. According to The Daily Telegraph and many other sources, China captured 60 square kilometres of Indian-patrolled territory in June 2020. Since June 2020 India is in fix and Indian army is in no mood to fight with three times more stronger Chinese army. Whole game turned the table around and now that we have seen 13th round of talks between both countries have failed and both are under the threat of war. Strategists are saying this time it would be two front war, on India’s western borders Pakistan and on northern borders China is ready to take long time claimed area. Fact of the matter is Indian government is in total denial about Indian territory taken by China. Internal disputes are rising with anti minorities extremist actions. India is in turmoil and economy is moving towards collapse. Details about India-China dispute can be read here:????

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/crisis-after-crisis-how-ladakh-will-shape-india-s-competition-china ????

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57234024

At the time of partition of India in 1947 Kashmir was a 95 % Muslim populated princely state ruled by Maharaja Sir Hari Singh GCSI GCIE GCVO, who was the last ruling Maharaja of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. State should have been part of Pakistan but India forcefully annexed it by forcefully signing an annexation document with Maharaja. War started in 1948 on forceful annexation and India lost quite a few area in Kashmir. India knew they would loss the war therefore took this matter to the UN Security Council, which passed resolution 39 (1948) and established the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) to investigate the issues and mediate between the two countries. Since 1948 UNO has failed to solve the issue because if this main dispute is solved then India and Pakistan (two nuclear arm states) would stop buying arms from the west and also would emerge as “Big Powers” being largest in population with high food producing and high in resources / minerals. With no dispute between India-Pakistan means there is no need for largest powerful armies spending billions of dollars each year, instead amount spent on arms would be spent on poverty reduction. In spite of many UNO resolutions issue is still pending because there is no resolve to settle the issue for obvious reasons. British left India but divide and rule policy still exists.?????

Pakistan holds?450 mile-long?military control line called Line of Control (LOC) which serves as a frontier slicing the disputed Indian and Pakistani governed parts of Kashmir into two parts. Approx. 35 % area is held by Pakistan and 65 % by India by deploying one of the largest per capita military in the world in Kashmir valley. Whole valley is an open prison with 8 million Muslims under siege and more than 800,000 Indian troops deployed in the Kashmir valley.??

Right now India is ruled by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)?It is a Indian right wing Hindu nationalist, paramilitary?volunteer?organisation. The RSS is the progenitor and leader of a large body of organisations called the?Sangh Parivar ?(the "family of the RSS"), which have presence in all facets of the Indian society. RSS was founded on 27 September 1925 after getting inspiration from Hitler’s Nazi party. As of 2014, it has a membership of 5–6?million but it has increased by approx. 2-3 million since 2014 onwards when Mr Modi took over as PM. The RSS was banned once during?British rule?and then thrice by the post-independence Indian government, first in 1948 when?Nathuram Godse ,?who claimed to have left RSS in 1946 over ideological differences and then later?assassinated great leader?Mahatma Gandhi ;?then during?The Emergency ?(1975–1977); and for a third time after the?demolition of Babri Masjid ?in 1992.

It is worth mentioning that present PM of India Mr Modi who is from BJP party (RSS) was denied USA visa for involvement in killing of thousands of Muslims in state of Gujrat in India. He came into lime light after these killings as Chief Minister. There was no other suitable leader other than Mr Modi for creating a chaos in the region. More details about his visa refusal and killings of Muslims in Gujrat, India are as under:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/06/world/asia/modi-gujarat-riots-timeline.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303380004579520041301275638 ??????????????????????????

People are talking about?possible WW III , Hitler was created and WW II happened and now Modi would give WW III. Let me throw some light what's going on in India at the moment. Due to fundamentalist approach by present BJP ruling party in India various domestic issues are going on with minorities and neighbouring countries which makes India a fascist State with numerous issues within and around. I strongly believe that on the basis of same assessment USA decided not to rely heavily on India and created new Alliance AUKUS. All partners have shown their mistrust on mainly on India and also Japan showed reluctance therefore West?decided to form a new military alliance. Western assessment of the Indian army ability to fight also made it quite evident that relying purely on India would be a great mistake. An army which has already given area to China without fight and not even ready to acknowledge. The distinct nature of threats posed by two dissimilar adversaries, China and Pakistan, means that India does not have any effective war wining solutions to the possibility of a full-fledged war on two fronts. If major issues faced by todays India are not dealt with quickly and wisely then India can end in collapse.?

https://www.stimson.org/2021/the-challenge-of-a-two-front-war-indias-china-pakistan-dilemma/

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/2/11/india-military-superpower-or-paper-tiger

Following are some of the issues which are source of concern for India:

a.??????Emerging extreme corruption & poverty

b.?????Farmers struggle with ruling elites

c.??????Hindu-Muslim tensions / mob lynching / killings???

d.?????India-China border tensions

e.??????India-Pakistan tensions

f.???????Indian failed insurgency policy in Afghanistan

g.??????Kashmir dispute / Lockdown of 8 million Muslims in open prison?

h.?????Controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019

i.???????India-Nepal land dispute

j.???????India-Bangladesh tensions

k.?????Freedom struggle movements within seven states of India

l.???????Lower morale of Indian armed forces

m.???Cast racism / grudge within Indian community

n.?????Covid-19 crisis & un accounted deaths

o.?????Poor judicial system with 44 million cases pending and 19 % increase last year (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pending-cases-in-india-cross-4-4-crore-up-19-since-last-year/articleshow/82088407.cms )??

Double Game :?

In 1979 USSR attacked Afghanistan. Cold war was on its peak, Pakistan became front line state and joined hands with USA. CIA funded Islamic Jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s intelligence agency trained mujahedeen's (later become Taliban) for war against USSR. CIA launched a big operation named Cyclone for training and arming mujahideen fighting against USSR. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

War ended in 1989 with USSR retreating with humiliating defeat. USA immediately left war torn Afghanistan in turmoil and Pakistan got entangled in the affairs of unstable country in its neighbourhood. From 1989 till 1996 there was a chaos in Afghanistan because of internal turmoil of war lords fighting for power. It was one of the worst era of turmoil and estimates say that two hundred thousand people died during this period. World powers just watched the entire drama to unfold. People in Afghanistan were fed up of blood shed and turmoil in the country. During this period Taliban emerged and quickly gained support from locals. Name Taliban is derived from the word “Talib” which means a student. They were all students of madrasas (Islamic Schools) who joined hands against this bloodshed within the country and started a movement for establishing peace and deliver justice within Afghanistan. In 1996 they established their writ as well as government. Pakistan and KSA both were involved in training and funding of mujahideen so they were among the first ones to accept their government because they wanted peace in the region. Osama bin Laden was also part of holy war funded by the West against USSR. He practically participated in the war siding with USA. But when USA left every thing in turmoil then rift started with Osama. Pakistan saw a ray of hope so supported Taliban to establish peace. On the other hand USA imposed sanctions on Pakistan within this period. Same ally who fought and won the war for USA suddenly became a target. Then one fine morning in 2001 incident of 9/11 happened and US and UK decided instantly to attack Afghanistan without any moral and legal justification. Pakistan was given threat “with us or against us”. Pakistan stance was overlooked and now after 20 years once again USA has left Afghanistan in the same mess which they did in 1989. Taliban are back again with more power and with more weapons & morale. This time China and Russia standing behind them being neighbours and effected by situation in Afghanistan. India is an?ally with USA and Israel this time, unlike last time when India was in USSR club. Modi government?is playing a double game with USA by getting support from West against China.

In October 2018, India inked the historic agreement worth?US$5.43 billion?with Russia to procure five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence system, the most powerful missile defence system in the world ignoring America's CAATSA act. US has banned India from buying this system but India is making all efforts to capitalize this deal. Still not understandable why banned India if they are an ally.?

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India is ill-equipped at this time to pose any realistic economic or military challenge to China. While China’s GDP is around US$14 trillion per annum, India’s is around US$2.3 trillion; where China’s foreign exchange reserves are around US$3 trillion, India’s are at US$400 billion or so. China’s GDP per capita is approximately US$9,000 whereas India’s is below US$2,000. India would need to grow its economy by 40 per cent per annum to match China’s in real terms. China’s military budget, similarly, is around US$250 billion while India’s is about US$55 billion.

According to media reports, research reports and various studies USA want Chinese rise to halt forthwith and one conclusion west has come up with is to halt CPEC project because this one project can change entire spectrum of things for China. This project would open up door to Middle East and Africa. By using CPEC route Chinese oil / gas/ cargo can reach onto China within 12-15 days where as alternative route goes through Strait of Malacca. This route takes 40-45 days for Chinese cargo to reach mainland China. By developing alternative route via CPEC means China saves time / money and also building ports of Gwadar (Pakistan) and Djibouti (East Africa).????

The Strait of Malacca or Straits of Malacca is a narrow stretch of water, 580 mi in length, between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. As the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. By controlling this route which is part of South China Sea US can block Chinese supplies.

Chinese company, which?owns a 23.5 percent stake in the Port of Djibouti, this venture offers opportunities and economic benefits in developing, operating, and managing the redevelopment project, given Djibouti's prime location, stable geopolitical environment, and the largest deep-water port in East Africa. Djibouti also hosts the?most extensive American permanent military base in Africa, Camp Lemonier, hosts U.S. Special Forces, fighter planes, and helicopters, and is a significant base for drone operations in Yemen and Somalia and is home to the US Africa Command (AFRICOM). Chinese ports in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Gwadar and Djibouti would give greater control over Indian Ocean. In South China Sea China is already strong enough to deal any eventuality or adventure. Few stories on these project are:

?https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/what-cpec-means-for-chinas-middle-east-relations/

https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/12/16/strategic-implications-of-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-pub-80611

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/in-strategic-djibouti-a-microcosm-of-chinas-growing-foothold-in-africa/2019/12/29/a6e664ea-beab-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html

“The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is by far one of the most ambitious and expensive components of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The economic corridor, a mix of transportation and energy infrastructure projects at an estimated cost of $60 billion, has been implemented with full dedication and support from the Chinese government since it was officially launched in 2015. In recent years, CPEC has received more international attention and scrutiny than the BRI projects in any other country and for a good reason, if it is completed as envisioned, it can have significant consequences for China’s geopolitical and economic interests”.

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Conclusion

Tensions between China and both the Philippines and Vietnam have recently cooled, even as China increased its military activity?in the South China Sea by conducting a series of naval manoeuvres and exercises in recent years. Meanwhile, China continues to?construct military and industrial outposts ?on artificial islands it has built in disputed waters. The United States has also stepped up its military activity?and naval presence?in the region in recent years, including?freedom of navigation operations ?(FONOPs). States involved in territorial disputes are?likely to form alliances, initiate military build-up, and further tend to experience wars. Thus, territorial disputes have been considered more important and direct sources of conflict than simple geographic contiguity.

Things are heating up in the region and three latest episodes have stunned the world.?Firstly, On October 15 2021, all major news channels reported “Russia Says It Pushed US Destroyer from Area near Its Waters”. Details can be read here: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-15/russia-says-it-pushed-us-destroyer-from-area-near-its-waters

Secondly, on 8 October 2021 BBC reported about US nuclear submarine unknown accident “South China Sea: US submarine collides with unknown object”. This is a serious concern for the world. Details can be read here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58838332

Thirdly, ABC news reported on 12 October 2021 “India, China army talks fail to defuse Ladakh border tensions”. Both countries have deployed various weapon systems in the disputed areas and build-up of troops is on the rise. Details can be read here:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-12/india-china-army-talks-fail-to-defuse-border-tensions/100531168 ?

Within a span of one week above three incidents are reported so one can understand seriousness of the situation. No dispute can be resolved with war alone, it has to settle with mutual discussion among involved countries. USA and UK are far away from SCS theatre of war and China has the upper edge in this regard. Solutions to South China Sea conflict by Carlyle Thayer is worth reading; here is link to his article:https://navalinstitute.com.au/solutions-to-south-china-sea-conflict/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solutions-to-south-china-sea-conflict

World has recently seen a dramatic end to war in Afghanistan after spending trillions of dollars and losing thousands of innocent life. World leaders should start behaving maturely and must sort out disputes via negotiations / discussions because we have seen military can give temporary solution but political solutions are long lasting in nature. Cold war between USSR-USA has not given any fruitful results and another cold war between China-USA is just getting started but this time Russia stands with China. Improving life of ordinary people should be the goal not destruction / chaos.?

Note: This article represents solely the views & opinion of author.????



Excellent article sir.. Thank you soo much..it'll help me in BRI subject & south china sea understanding ????????

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