Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

The signs of fragility in Vladimir Putin’s regime has been exposed by the war in Ukraine. The military can do no right, endemic corruption has rotted every Russian institution to its core, and the media has long since ceased being anything more than a mouthpiece for the regime. These traits have manifested themselves in a series of astonishing military debacles from the Battle of Kyiv to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region and the Russian Army’s withdrawal from Kherson. One humiliation has been followed by another. And the situation continues to get worse.

The Prigozhin mutiny showed the world just how shallow the Putin regime had become. Its support inside Russia, once deep and all-encompassing, was now shallow and dubious. A couple of weeks after the mutiny stunned the world, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dimitry Peskov made an equally stunning announcement. Peskov, a man who makes pathological liars look honest, felt the need to announce that Putin met with Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders to give them his assessment of their performance. This included references to their conduct in the mutiny. With this revelation, it seems Putin has reduced himself to the role of middle manager, giving those who vehemently disagree with his prosecution of the war a performance review. This is Vladimir Putin Version 2020, old, tired, out of touch and forced by circumstance to assimilate internal enemies.

Unjust Rewards – A Forced Compromise

Putin’s meeting with the Wagnerites was a Kremlin version of “can’t we all get along.” The song “Why can’t we be friends?” would have been an appropriate soundtrack accompanying Putin’s assessment of Wagner’s performance. This was the loser-in-chief lecturing the only Russian force to win a battle since the war’s initial months. Of course, Wagner’s victory at Bakhmut got the majority of its forces shot to pieces. Their victory was pyrrhic at best. The mutineers felt they deserved respect and a larger say in the war’s conduct. Like the rest of Russia, the only thing Prigozhin and his Wagner troops got more of was Vladimir Putin. An unjust reward for their mutinous behavior.

As for Putin, he was, is, and will continue to be the great loser in the mutiny. Prigozhin and an estimated 5,000 of his soldiers did irreparable damage to Putin’s rule. In the space of just twenty-four hours, they undermined the foundation of his regime. There was no need for this to happen, but Putin let it happen because he did not know what else to do when faced with a challenge from the hard right. The fact that Putin decided to meet with the mutineers seems shocking, until one realizes that he had little choice. Failure to deal with the mutineers by compromise makes Putin look weak. This is the worst thing that could happen to him. The fact that it occurred just as Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was getting started has turned the entire saga into Putin’s worst nightmare.

Bad News – The Hits Keep Coming

2023 has brought Putin one bad piece of news after another. This has included a failed offensive, sustained western support for Ukraine in the form of more lethal and technologically superior weaponry, a continued high rate of Russian losses at the front, an enlarged NATO, murmurs of domestic discontent with the war, and little more than verbal support from Russia’s few allies. The most incredible thing is not that all this happened to Putin, but because of Putin. His poor decision making has led to this state of affairs. Ironically, Putin’s inability to make difficult decisions is now exacerbating it. The next most incredible thing is that the Russian army continues to fight, even when they have no idea what they are fighting for. Keeping Putin in power is not an inspiring goal for Russian forces, but that is what they have reduced to fighting for.

Why are Russian forces in Ukraine? Putin has failed to answer that question except with his usual incendiary accusations of faux Ukrainian fascism and a conspiracy of the western world to encroach on Russia’s sphere of influence. In an astonishing turn of events, the Putin regime’s sphere of influence inside Russia is now waning. Their influence in geopolitics has been severely curtailed. ?NATO is ascendant. Finland has joined the alliance and Sweden will any day now. Ukraine is now on track to eventually join NATO as well as the European Union, Putin wanted to weaken Ukraine, but instead he managed to unite it and at the same time, fatally weakened his own regime. Everything in the regime is now in flux.

Questionable Loyalties – Survival Instincts

Loyalties have been called into question, leadership is lacking at every level of politics and the military. The economy is teetering. Ukraine is being feted this week at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. In the past, Russia was menacing Eastern Europe. Now NATO is solidifying a 21st century Eastern Bloc against Russia. Plans are being set in place to provide a more credible military deterrent in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Putin is floundering. He no longer projects confidence. Putin looks like a man waiting for something worse to happen. Putin 2020 will likely be the last version of him we see. His regime is in decline. This should make him more dangerous. Judging by his response to the mutiny it only makes him look more hapless and helpless. Whatever else happens to Putin and his regime in 2023, it is not likely to be good. Putin has nothing to look forward to during the rest of the year, but more problems.

For the first time ever, Putin is extremely vulnerable. Judging by the first half of the year, he should be worried. Putin Version 2020 is doing damage control, Russia’s elites are in survival mode, the Russian military is on the defensive and the populace is indifferent. This has all the hallmarks of the Brezhnev era in the Soviet Union, a long, slow decline. The one complicating factor in this scenario is the war in Ukraine. How Putin handles the war, or more to this point decides not to handle the war, will go a long way in deciding the future of Russia. As for Putin’s future, that has already been decided. It is bleak.